“Having played a lot of chess, I like to think about the probable strategy of secretive companies such as Apple and Amazon. They hide as much as they can for long term competitive advantage. While some AAPL products have arrived later than promised, basically AAPL-watchers are left to guess and infer what is coming down the pike,” DoctoRx writes for Seeking Alpha. “We know that for now, AAPL is doing well in relatively stagnant, mature markets such as desktop/mobile computers, tablets and even smartphones. But if AAPL is lagging in self-driving cars, if ‘Siri sucks,’ how can it really grow? Thus, the low P/E.”
“Now that the Fed has begun taking the “punch bowl” of easy money away with determination, via both interest rate hikes, my base thesis has changed from bullishness (since the Trump election) to caution. I rode the tech momentum wave enthusiastically, then decided it was acting toppy and as mentioned in a late January article, mentioned the parabolic chart of the NASDAQ 100, specific signs of froth and other factors, and mentioned that I had “reduced a marked overweight tech position.” This included taking AAPL from a heavy overweight to a normal (overweighted) position, selling Amazon and lightening up a good deal on semiconductor capital equipment stocks,” DoctoRx writes. “That accomplished, and with AAPL suddenly below $160, I began to wonder if AAPL might actually have a strategy for substantial growth. Could it be more than just a value play? So I began to wonder if AAPL’s strategy were that of a chess grandmaster, gaining the tempo while setting up for victory using deceptive tactics.”
“After researching AAPL’s open focus on augmented reality, or AR, I came to the thesis that indeed, AAPL has been playing chess. It has been gaining market share where it needs in order to evolve to dominate what some have called a business opportunity on the scale of the Internet,” DoctoRx writes. “I expect that when Jony Ive, AAPL’s lead designer who is now freed up from overseeing the build-out of AAPL’s new HQ, finishes work on an “iGlass” or whatever AAPL creates (and whatever its name is), AAPL will have a product that will be another iPod, iPhone, Apple Watch, etc., that is, something that brings AR to the mainstream… There is a good, perhaps likely chance that AAPL is poised to be the unitary force to take the lion’s share of the profits from a burgeoning, eventually gigantic AR hardware market along with the associated App Store-like cut of the software.”
DoctoRx writes, “Great hardware, meshing with software, in an attractive and convenient package, will allow AR to go mainstream and its growth curve to begin to go parabolic upwards. This sort of product achievement has been the province of one tech company: AAPL.”
Much more in the full article – recommended – here.
MacDailyNews Take: Yup.
This will be smart glasses done right. – MacDailyNews, November 8, 2017
Stylish eyewear that actually delivers useful data to wearers is potentially a huge market and Apple is exactly the company to deliver just such a wearable. — MacDailyNews, January 25, 2017
Augmented Reality is going to change everything. — MacDailyNews, July 21, 2017
Someday, hopefully sooner than later, we’ll look back at holding up slabs of metal and glass to access AR as unbelievably quaint. — MacDailyNews, July 28, 2017
The impact of augmented reality cannot be overstated. It will be a paradigm shift larger than the iPhone and the half-assed clones it begat. — MacDailyNews, August 4, 2017
Imagine what could be done with AirPods coupled with a pair of Apple Specs. The sky’s the limit! — MacDailyNews, November 17, 2016
Inside Cupertino’s upcoming breakthrough product: Apple Glass – February 15, 2018
Apple patent application details optical system for VR and AR headset – February 8, 2018
Apple acquires Canadian augmented reality headset startup Vrvana – November 21, 2017
Apple working on augmented reality headset running ‘rOS’ to ship as early as 2020 – November 8, 2017
Apple’s AR smartglasses – understanding the issues – August 29, 2017
Bernstein: Apple’s ‘smartglasses’ opportunity ‘could be enormous’ – August 25, 2017
Apple working on several prototypes of AR glasses – August 4, 2017
Apple’s next big move: Augmented reality – August 3, 2017
Apple’s rumored new glasses will be an even bigger deal than the iPhone – July 28, 2017
Apple smart glasses are inevitable – July 28, 2017
New app using Apple’s ARKit lets iPhone recreate 16 weeks of painstaking rotoscoping on the fly – July 27, 2017
Gene Munster: Apple Glasses will soon outshine the iPhone – June 28, 2017
Gene Munster: Expect Apple smart glasses in mid-2020 – June 27, 2017
Augmented Reality: Apple’s revolutionary offering leaves Google’s Android woefully behind – June 26, 2017
Apple’s AR is much closer to reality than Google’s – June 26, 2017
UBS: Apple may eventually launch ‘iGlass’ smart glasses – June 20, 2017
IKEA’s forthcoming Augmented Reality furniture app powered by Apple’s ARKit – June 19, 2017
Apple’s single most important WWDC 2017 announcement: ARKit – June 11, 2017
Apple CEO Cook discusses philosophy behind HomePod, ARKit’s potential market impact – June 6, 2017
Overnight, Apple will own the world’s largest augmented reality platform – June 7, 2017
Analysts: Apple’s Corning investment hints at AR glasses and wireless charging tech – May 14, 2017
Apple awards Corning $200 million in first Advanced Manufacturing Fund investment – May 12, 2017
Leaked document details Apple employee eye injuries, hints at Apple AR glasses – April 20, 2017
Apple began working on augmented reality glasses more than a year ago, sources say – March 27, 2017
Apple is working on several AR products, including glasses, but first in iPhone, sources say – March 20, 2017
Why Apple will make smart glasses – January 25, 2017
The rumor that Apple will launch AR glasses in 2017 is ridiculous – January 10, 2017
Apple and Zeiss working together on augmented reality glasses, says Robert Scoble – January 10, 2017
No, Apple’s next big thing won’t be smart glasses – November 16, 2016
Apple Specs: Smart glasses that people will want to wear – November 16, 2016
Apple considers move into smart glasses – November 14, 2016
Apple granted another Augmented Reality head-mounted display patent – November 10, 2016
Snapchat introduces ‘Spectacles’ eyewear that record video – September 26, 2016
Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple will have a 3-5 year lead in augmented reality; use as part of an autonomous driving system – November 2, 2016
Apple CEO Tim Cook: ‘We are high on Augmented Reality for the long run’ – October 14, 2016
iPhone 7 Plus is the starting point of Apple’s major push into augmented reality – September 28, 2016
iPhone 7 Plus proves Apple is gearing up for augmented reality – September 27, 2016
What iPhone 7 says about Apple’s future augmented reality plans – September 19, 2016
Apple needs to forget chasing Snapchat and go after the Augmented Reality industry – August 25, 2016
Tim Cook publicly confirms Apple has augmented reality plans – July 27, 2016
Apple acquires Flyby Media; assembles large team of virtual and augmented reality experts – January 29, 2016
Apple hires leading virtual reality researcher – January 22, 2016
Apple is building a virtual reality supply chain with disruptive potential, new research shows – November 19, 2015
Analyst: Apple team exploring virtual reality/augmented reality – August 31, 2015
Apple exploring a new reality with purchase of Metaio – June 3, 2015
Apple patents perforated augmented reality display that you can see and hear through – May 29, 2015
Apple acquires augmented reality company Metaio – May 28, 2015
New Apple haptics patent application reveals diamond-layered trackpad that simulates wood, other textures – April 23, 2015
Apple granted U.S. patent for hybrid VR head-mounted display – February 18, 2015
Apple is working on VR user interfaces and gaming; looking for Oculus and Leap experts – February 10, 2015
Apple granted patent for display-based speakers for iOS devices – January 13, 2015
Apple granted a patent for devices with a transparent display – November 18, 2014
Apple’s new iPhones, iPads could feature haptic displays – June 30, 2014
Apple patent application reveals personal display headset invention – May 8, 2014
Apple patent application reveals wildly intelligent multi-tiered haptics system – May 3, 2012
Apple continues to tweak Apple TV video headset accessory – April 10, 2014
Apple patent application reveals sapphire flexible transparent display devices created with Liquidmetal – December 19, 2013
Apple granted knockout patent for head-mounted personal display – December 10, 2013
Powerful new patent application details next step in Apple ‘iGlasses’ project – December 7, 2012
iGlasses: Apple granted patent for head-mounted augmented reality displays – July 5, 2012
If wishes and buts were candies and hut then every day would be a Merry Christmas. The author isn’t promoting vaporware, but pure fantasy and delusion.
SA is like the letters to the editor section of a newspaper. Everyone has an opinion and they’re not always well-informed. Take any SA column with a grain of salt. Same with Business Insider, etc. JMO
Apples augmented reality seems DOA. Doesn’t help that they won’t make wysiwig tools either.
What do you mean DOA??? There are plenty of really cool and extremely helpful AR-enabled apps in the app store!
I use MeasureKit all the time.
TapMeasure is also quite cool, then there is, of course, IKEA Place, plus there is a bunch of AR games out there.
Yes, it should be called Snow Crash
Either MDN’s readers haven’t read the book, or they think you’re saying that Apple would provide the channel to shut people’s brains off. I thought you meant it as a compliment, but I guess it’s possible you were going deeper into the book. 🙂
“This will be smart glasses done right.” – MacDailyNews, November 8, 2017
Producing an eclectic and superior level of glasshole!
I stopped reading after, “ ….if AAPL is lagging in self driving cars, and ”if SIRI sucks”, how can it grow?
“Thus the low PE?” What??? No. It is not because of these two things. Apple has ALWAYS had a low PE. Even in the before SIRI or automated driving was announced/conceived. To suddenly say that it is because of those two things is the usual “BS move the goal posts” writing every article on Apple is unfairly cursed with.
Why does Apple always have that low P/E? I’m sure it has enough spare cash to change that low P/E to a higher P/E. Is Apple even trying to increase investor confidence like Jeff Bezos is doing for Amazon? Yeah, Apple has always had a low P/E. Not every Apple shareholder happily accepts that answer.
Also, there’s no valid reason why Siri always has to be considered the most stupid AI. Apple has the means to increase Siri’s intelligence if they really wanted to. Siri has definitely been around long enough to be a lot smarter and not on everyone’s crap-list while kissing Alexa and Google Assistant’s buttocks. It’s just appalling how Siri is being called a retard considering Apple is steeped in all sorts of resources.
“Lagging in self driving cars”. WTF did I just read.