Gene Munster: Apple Glasses will soon outshine the iPhone

“One analyst sees a bright future ahead for Apple Glasses,” Gina Hall reports for Silicon Valley Business Journal. “Loup Ventures’ Gene Munster, a well-regarded Apple watcher, believes Apple Glasses will cut into iPhone sales by 2020. In a blog post earlier this week, Munster said iPhone growth will peak in 2019 and the device will steadily decline in sales following the launch of Apple Glasses.”

We expect iPhone revenue to grow at 15 percent in FY18 (essential the next iPhone cycle) and account for 64 percent of revenue. We believe tough comps after the next iPhone cycle will have a negative impact on iPhone growth in FY19, and in FY20 we believe Apple Glasses will start to impact iPhone sales… In 10 years we expect the iPhone will be around, but be a much smaller part of Apple’s business as Apple Glasses slowly gains market adoption. — Loup Ventures’ Gene Munster

“Most expect the Apple wearables to display images within the viewer’s field of vision and employ augmented reality,” Hall reports. “According to Bloomberg, Apple is talking to suppliers about the glasses and has already ordered near-eye displays from one supplier for testing.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Apple is going to dominate AR!

VR, I think, has some interesting applications, but I don’t think it’s a broad-based technology like AR. Augmented reality will take some time to get right, but I do think that it’s profound. We might… have a more productive conversation, if both of us have an AR experience standing here, right? And so I think that things like these are better when they’re incorporated without becoming a barrier to our talking… You want the technology to amplify it, not to be a barrier.Apple CEO Tim Cook, October 13, 2016

Gene Munster: Expect Apple smart glasses in mid-2020 – June 27, 2017
Augmented Reality: Apple’s revolutionary offering leaves Google’s Android woefully behind – June 26, 2017
Apple’s AR is much closer to reality than Google’s – June 26, 2017
UBS: Apple may eventually launch ‘iGlass’ smart glasses – June 20, 2017
IKEA’s forthcoming Augmented Reality furniture app powered by Apple’s ARKit – June 19, 2017
Apple’s single most important WWDC 2017 announcement: ARKit – June 11, 2017
Apple CEO Cook discusses philosophy behind HomePod, ARKit’s potential market impact – June 6, 2017
Overnight, Apple will own the world’s largest augmented reality platform – June 7, 2017
Analysts: Apple’s Corning investment hints at AR glasses and wireless charging tech – May 14, 2017
Apple awards Corning $200 million in first Advanced Manufacturing Fund investment – May 12, 2017
Leaked document details Apple employee eye injuries, hints at Apple AR glasses – April 20, 2017
Apple began working on augmented reality glasses more than a year ago, sources say – March 27, 2017
How Apple might deliver Augmented Reality on the iPhone – March 1, 2017
Apple CEO Cook sparks predictions of augmented reality in iPhone 8 – February 27, 2017
Apple CEO Cook offers clues to Apple’s Augmented Reality strategy – February 14, 2017
Apple CEO Cook on Augmented Reality: ‘I regard it as a big idea like the smartphone’ – February 10, 2017
Apple working to integrate Augmented Reality capabilities into iPhone’s Camera app – November 17, 2016
Apple granted another Augmented Reality head-mounted display patent – November 10, 2016
Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple will have a 3-5 year lead in augmented reality; use as part of an autonomous driving system – November 2, 2016
Apple CEO Tim Cook: ‘We are high on Augmented Reality for the long run’ – October 14, 2016
iPhone 7 Plus is the starting point of Apple’s major push into augmented reality – September 28, 2016
iPhone 7 Plus proves Apple is gearing up for augmented reality – September 27, 2016
What iPhone 7 says about Apple’s future augmented reality plans – September 19, 2016
Apple needs to forget chasing Snapchat and go after the Augmented Reality industry – August 25, 2016
Tim Cook publicly confirms Apple has augmented reality plans – July 27, 2016
Apple acquires Flyby Media; assembles large team of virtual and augmented reality experts – January 29, 2016
Apple hires leading virtual reality researcher – January 22, 2016
Apple is building a virtual reality supply chain with disruptive potential, new research shows – November 19, 2015
Analyst: Apple team exploring virtual reality/augmented reality – August 31, 2015
Apple exploring a new reality with purchase of Metaio – June 3, 2015
Apple patents perforated augmented reality display that you can see and hear through – May 29, 2015
Apple acquires augmented reality company Metaio – May 28, 2015
New Apple haptics patent application reveals diamond-layered trackpad that simulates wood, other textures – April 23, 2015
Apple granted U.S. patent for hybrid VR head-mounted display – February 18, 2015
Apple is working on VR user interfaces and gaming; looking for Oculus and Leap experts – February 10, 2015
Apple granted patent for display-based speakers for iOS devices – January 13, 2015
Apple granted a patent for devices with a transparent display – November 18, 2014
Apple’s new iPhones, iPads could feature haptic displays – June 30, 2014
Apple patent application reveals personal display headset invention – May 8, 2014
Apple patent application reveals wildly intelligent multi-tiered haptics system – May 3, 2012
Apple continues to tweak Apple TV video headset accessory – April 10, 2014
Apple patent application reveals sapphire flexible transparent display devices created with Liquidmetal – December 19, 2013
Apple granted knockout patent for head-mounted personal display – December 10, 2013
iGlasses: Apple granted patent for head-mounted augmented reality displays – July 5, 2012


    1. With the power I see stuffed into a tiny phone (unheard of a few years ago), the rate at which Apple is cranking out smaller yet more powerful processors, and the negative views on the possibility of iPhone back when it was first released (as we near its tenth anniversary), I would not be at all suprised if Apple could do the things with glasses that Munster predicts here. Here I am with a wireless earbud in each ear that are smart enough to sense not a tap but a double tap and access Siri on the phone. While glasses may start as an addition to the iPhone (as did the watch), I think it’s not out of the realm of possibility that glasses could have Trumpian levels of HUGE powers autonomously within a couple of generations. Remember. The iPhone was called the iPod phone. While Apple can certainly screw some things up, one thing it does very well is dazzle! Glasses offer plenty of opportunity to do that and they wouldn’t be limited to one processor. With a processor placed in the arm behind earache ear, there is the potential for TWO 64-bit processors and room for a Mobility processor as well. Be careful with your low expectations in this space.

    2. Yeah, I’d be very surprised. I don’t want to wear glasses. I suspect it’ll be more akin to the watch. Some people will love it, (more) people not inclined to wear them won’t. That’s the issue with wearables in general, I think, a lot of us really don’t enjoy strapping on extra gear, it’s a nuisance.

      1. “According to the Vision Council of America, approximately 75% of adults use some sort of vision correction. About 64% of them wear eyeglasses, and about 11% wear contact lenses…”

        That’s a pretty big market, and more than “most”.

      2. I think glasses, more so than wrist wearables, are highly fashion sensitive since it frames the primary way we identify people, the face. As such enabled glasses like Google Glass or the expected Apple Glasses may be the wrong direction. I think something that simply attaches to headgear (including glasses) that people already own would sell much better since it would be unobtrusive and allow the user to keep his/her appearance from changing much. This could lead to use with helmets and goggles of all shapes and sizes in additional to the initial use for glasses.

    1. When he was young he would listen to the radio and then create stories from things that he heard. They were often very fanciful and fun but always linked to the facts he heard on the radio. Naturally, Gene’s father and I always thought our son’s future would be one involving some kind of creative writing. He didn’t necessarily follow the path imagined but his creative disposition is still active in what he does today. That’s why I’m writing you, the creative Mac community that understands “being different.” Although he doesn’t recognize it, he sincerely believes that he’s fulfilling his responsibility as a technology analyst. But, just like in his days of youth, he’s mixing facts with his own little world when he writes about these devices, such as the most recent; Apple Glasses. I just wanted to make sure you understood that. He such a good boy he always has been so sincere (and handsome, I might add). Please lend him your understanding and enjoy the chuckle, or two and know he loves his job.

  1. Is the analyst expecting AR to work on the Apple Glasses w/o connection to an iPhone? I think an almost 1:1 ratio between iPhone and the Glasses is more realistic leading to stable or growing iPhone sales since he assumes the wearable’s success.

    1. True, but he’s expecting these changes within 3 years. Apple Watch has been sold for over 2 years now and still has to connect to an iPhone for its higher level functions.

  2. If anything soon, Apple may decide to sell extremely light shutter glasses, so your 120Hz refresh rate screen (starting with iPad Pro) can show you AR stuff with 60Hz refresh.

  3. Munster thinks he has some inside track with Apple and I don’t like it one bit. I’m not sure whom exactly regards him highly but I’m not one of those people. Munster’s guesses are no better than anyone else’s guesses about Apple’s future products. I think the people who are always making these bold prophecies are just stupid or enjoy giving out bad information.

  4. He’s probably right about glasses long term but only when there are enough capable iPhones(heavy lifting jobs) out there to support AR input from the glasses like that tape measure ARkit demo in an earlier thread. Pretty cool and useful if you could just glance around a room and instantly get dims, volume, 3D rendering – all delivered by Siri…I can think of heaps of applications.
    Maybe the Apple Car is actually AR/VR in disguise

  5. Screen aside something the size of the Apple watch represents a substantial compromise on the technology possible in an iPhone, there is not current way that a pair of glasses as a standalone device will replace an iPhone day in and day out. At best they would be an accompaniment like the Apple Watch. I also don’t see people in large numbers wanting to walk around with identical pairs of glasses on. People will want and indeed need a large choice of frames. People who need prescription glasses will want choice because they have to wear them and care what they look like, people who don’t will want choice because they’re having to compromise and have something on their face. I don’t see Apple or any one company being able to offer the choice that people will want, especially if the device is not going to replace their phone. Glasses would have to be incredibly compelling for people to make that compromise of how they look. I just don’t think the technology is there. Look how long it has taken for Bluetooth to get to the point that people wear them in their ears and they’re still not ubiquitous given the cost of truly great ones.

    1. Perhaps Apple Glasses will instead be contacts with sensors so it will know which way is “up” and you won’t have to constantly realign them. This would solve the screen size problem since you have your entire field of vision to work with in addition to not changing your ‘look’. If so Google has a head start with work in that area with their current attempts for placing medical sensors on contact lenses.

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