In the darkest hour of Apple’s ‘white-knuckle period,’ some investors are loving it

“Apple’s stock was down $8.88, or 4.8%, yesterday, and the stock is down 23.7% since its peak in early October,” Jim Edwards writes for Business Insider. “AAPL is doing so badly it’s dragging down the rest of the tech-heavy NASDAQ, too.”

“We are in one of those unusual periods where there are more questions about Apple’s future than there are certainties,” Edwards writes. “Historically, only fools bet against Apple. Yet the ‘fools’ are winning. Anyone who bought the stock before the launch of iPhones XS, XS Max, and XR is now poorer.”

MacDailyNews Take: Only if the dupes sold at a loss in an uninformed panic. Those are the only fools.

“At least one investor is clear: Buy aggressively on the dip,” Edwards writes. “There will be no future bump in iPhone sales. But the average selling price of an iPhone has risen $220 since 2008, or 40%. The future is all about revenue growth. In addition, services revenue (apps, music, and so on) was up 17% year-on-year in Apple’s Q3 earnings this year. As Apple’s existing “installed base” of iPhones continues to grow — it will hit 1 billion phones by the end of the year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Wamsi Mohan and his team — the market for those services will also grow.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: The fomenters prey on the uninformed using specious arguments that knowledgeable investors can see right through.

Hoping for sub-$170, please!

Apple supplier Foxconn plans $2.9 billion in cost cuts – November 21, 2018
Apple is having its worst month since the financial crisis, but the long-term trend appears intact – November 20, 2018
Apple analysts have a long history of misreading weak iPhone demand based on supplier rumors – November 19, 2018
Poor news curation at Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters created misleading iPhone supply chain panic – November 19, 2018
WSJ: Apple slashes production orders for all three new iPhone models – November 19, 2018
Misreading Apple’s supply chain and iPhone XR demand – November 15, 2018
Apple: Ignore the noise – November 14, 2018
Dialog Semi says not seeing hit to demand from Apple – November 14, 2018
Don’t panic about iPhone sales just yet – November 14, 2018
Apple stock: This is not a repeat of 2015-16 – November 14, 2018
iPhone XR production cuts not due to soft demand – analyst – November 10, 2018
Apple’s Asian suppliers fall on report of canceled iPhone XR production boost – November 6, 2018
Nikkei claims iPhone XR production cuts, Apple stock drops over 3% – November 5, 2018
Uh, yeah, about those iPhone X ‘concerns’ from analysts: Never mind – May 1, 2018
Apple beats Street with best Q2 ever – May 1, 2018
Apple’s iPhone X isn’t selling well – or is it? – April 21, 2018
Apple’s iPhone X to be discontinued this year, analyst claims – April 20, 2018
Morgan Stanley: Apple stock may fall on ‘materially’ weaker iPhone sales – April 20, 2018
Apple’s iPhone X made 5 times the profit of 600 Android OEMs combined – April 18, 2018
Apple’s iPhone captured 86% of global handset profits in Q417; iPhone X alone took 35% of global handset profits – April 17, 2018
Bernstein: Ams AG is biggest winner in Apple’s TrueDepth Camera system – April 10, 2018
Apple’s iPhone X is the UK’s most popular smartphone – April 9, 2018
Apple’s iPhone X sales continue to disappoint, some analysts say – March 22, 2018
Ignore the iPhone X naysayers – March 10, 2018
Will the naysayers admit they were wrong about Apple’s iPhone X? – February 5, 2018
Do iPhone X sales spell trouble for Apple? – January 30, 2018
Apple supplier says report of iPhone X production cuts was overstated – January 30, 2018
Another January, another misleading iPhone supply cuts story from Nikkei – January 29, 2018
Apple stock drops after Nikkei report of iPhone X production cut – January 29, 2018
Reports of Apple cutting iPhone X orders make no sense – January 2, 2018
Apple stock tumbles on one poorly-sourced report of low iPhone X demand – December 26, 2017
Apple and suppliers shares drop on report of weak iPhone X demand – December 26, 2017
Nikkei: Apple to decrease iPhone production 10% in first quarter of 2017 – December 30, 2016
Nikkei proclaims ‘iPhone 7’ Dead On Arrival; bemoans Apple’s ‘lack of innovation’ – May 12, 2016
Japan’s Nikkei, The Wall Street Journal blow it, get iPhone demand story all wrong – January 16, 2013
Did Apple reduce 4-inch Retina display orders due to improving yields? – January 15, 2013
Analysts: iPhone 5 demand ‘robust;’ ignore the non-news noise – January 15, 2013
Apple iPhone suppliers decline on report orders cut by 50% – January 15, 2013
Apple swoon erases $17 billion from stock market – January 14, 2013
Apple iPhone 5 production cut signaling a new product release? – January 14, 2013
Apple drops to 11-month low on old reports of component cuts – January 14, 2013
The strange math of Apple’s alleged massive iPhone 5 component cuts – January 14, 2013
UBS analysts: Apple iPhone component order reduction ‘old news’ – January 14, 2013
Apple pulls down U.S. futures – January 14, 2013
Apple shares drop below $500 after reported cuts in iPhone 5 parts orders – January 14, 2013


    1. I hope his panic did not throw him in that trap..
      A sure way to lose money in the market is to panic..and the big WS charlatans are so aware of that..
      Fear, the strongest driving force to manipulate and control the masses .
      And the charlatans and crooks know it too well .

  1. Mdn u keep hoping for lower and lower.

    1st it was 195 to back up the truck. Did u back up the truck?
    Then 185 , did u load up?
    Now sub 170’…..
    Sure you want to cost average down, we get it… isnt about 25% discount good enough for u ?
    Where do u want it to stop… 1 dollar?

    1. Although we’re pretty close to $170, I’m not not sweating it if Apple is buying back stock and smart investors are buying more. I feel safe with Apple thanks to my dividends and the belief Apple will eventually head back up at least close to where it was. $210 to $220 is good for me. I’m not that greedy.

  2. The Fed is unwinding it’s $4T balance sheet to the tune of $50B per month. All that digital money is being stored on a giant disk drive that we be formatted and wiped clean at the end of the great unwind.

    AAPL shares will follow the yellow brick road down the decline.

  3. And don’t forget Apple has a proven track record of completely reinventing an entire industry or two (or three) each decade.

    They’re about due for yet another.

      1. AppleWatch is not decent….. its Amazing as is . and its potential no where near realized yet as good as it is already.

        Lets Add to that the list :
        Apple Pay.
        Air Pods.
        Face ID.
        All absolutly amazing!

        And lets not discount Where Tim took the Iphone.. the scales of then ( Steve times ) and now are astronomical different.. but to the layman it counts for nothing i guess .

        Tims biggest and most Astonishing mistake were how he handled macs… and siri.
        But i hope their latest initiatives will turn the mac and siri boat around.
        Market, advertise the damn macs Tim, Phil.
        ( what is it ? you dont have money to market them?)

      2. “That was mostly with Steven Jobs” so was the watch, he passed before he could announce it. Jobs worked five years ahead, so his pipeline has most likely run dry. No industry reinventing products under Cook unless you want to count ear buds (doubtful) and Airpay…

  4. As a shareholder, I’m not crying because of the dip. Apple is actively buying back shares and smart long-term investors will likely buy more at this reduced price. Why should I cry or panic when I’m getting my dividends and in the future, Apple should be able to give larger increases as less shares are outstanding. This is not a crying situation. Apple is definitely not going out of business no matter what the news media says. Any company can go through rough times. I don’t expect consumers to buy new iPhones every year, especially very expensive ones. Apple just has to create new revenue streams which it should be capable of doing.

    I don’t know what everyone is so scared of that would cause them to dump Apple stock at such a furious rate when this situation has happened a few times before and Apple certainly recovered. I’ll just admit I’m stupid for not thinking Apple would have fallen below $200 because of weak guidance. I must be getting a bit forgetful about what causes Apple’s stock to quickly collapse. Fear and greed.

  5. I bought $10,000 plus yesterday.

    Having seen shares go down 50% or so in 2007, I have over 100k in cash in a cash savings account for really crazy drops. (Painfully I learnt from the vastly smarter Warren Buffett who always keeps cash aside)

    This is the first aapl I’ve bought in while (and I’ve not sold any for years)

    In 2007 Jobs had just announced the iPhone when the market crashed. Being more nerd than investor I thought this was an investing opportunity. I knew iPhone is going to be a super hit. I even cashed out one of my life insurance investing policies and dumped it into aapl in 2007-8 when the stock was around $20 (in today’s split adjusted value). At the time critics and panic mongers were saying 20 was too high “sell, sell, sell… ”

    We don’t have an iPhone today (that’s why I’m not throwing all my ‘dry powder’ in) but I don’t see the situation for aapl is so bad, most of the negativity is unsupported rumours, Cooks guidance for Christmas quarter even though lower than analysts wanted still shows growth and today even with the drop, aapl is till up 10% last 12 months. There is also EPS growth due to buybacks, increasing installed base, renewal of Mac focus etc.

    From a nerd point of view I’m still concerned about certain things at Apple (which I post often at MDN) but as an investor , even with concerns, I think the massive sell off on just rumours is overblown.

    If I was younger and able to absorb more risks, have a longer time horizon, I would be throwing more money into aapl. Still if it drops significantly more I will buy more.

    Btw : Polls show 80+ % of teen in USA use iPhones. That bodes well for the future. Apple should boost their other offerings like Macs and market them to iPhone users. Why Apple doesn’t have things like “if you buy an iPhone you can buy a Mac at 10% off if you buy in 30 days” etc has always baffled me. At 30+ % profit margin Apple can do things like this and really boost mac sales. Larger installed base more lock in to eco system, more developers etc. Tim cook approaches everything from a supply chain bean counter perspective where every cent is counted , rather than a marketing perspective like Jobs where sales and expansion is key.

    1. to clarify my last paragraph on Cook and Mac sales, I’ll like to point out Cook for years hardly advertised the Mac , apple’s second biggest hardware product, while Jobs ran one new Mac ad every month or so (66 Mac/PC guy ads in 4 years). That’s why I said Jobs was more willing to spend on expansion

    2. “Tim cook approaches everything from a supply chain bean counter perspective where every cent is counted , rather than a marketing perspective like Jobs where sales and expansion is key.”

      Right, and exactly why a beancounter will NEVER replace a visionary…

        1. Not if it is twice as expensive, slower and you don’t have a choice of industry standard graphics cards. I’m fed up with the Apple tax paying more for less because it is a status symbol. I gave up that nonsense in college… 🦃

      1. I for one consider the AppleWatch a visionary product.. as well as aapple pay…. as well as the AR initiative and what it will bring to our lives.
        And God knows what else that they may be working on.. from cars to autonomous systems to etc etc…
        An acknowledged mistake on mac/pros and immidiat corrective action taken … and yet everything else achieved is out the window…? ?

  6. It was inevitable that there would be a sell off at some point. AAPL has had an excellent run up this year and now the profit taking is happen.
    It’s also not just AAPL so the catalyst is fear about profits and sustainability for tech. This will happen in this type of boom and bust economy.
    Realize that someone is make a lot of money from this slide and this helps Apple to continue its share buyback at a discounted rate.
    FWIW, AAPL has had massive drops in the past. During all those times I held onto the stock since I understood the fundamentals were good. Nothing has changed in that respect for me so will continue to hold until I feel that Apple are not performing.

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