Apple analysts have a long history of misreading weak iPhone demand based on supplier rumors

“Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: An Apple analyst cuts iPhone shipment estimates based on weak supplier guidance, sendingthe company’s stock tumbling,” Sara Salinas reports for CNBC.

“It’s far from the first warning about iPhone shipments from the industry’s top analysts,” Salinas reports. “This time it’s TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo cutting estimates for the iPhone XR. In October, it was Goldman Sachs and estimates for the company’s sales in China. Before that, it was Nikkei, Citi Research or Barclays Capital, lowering their respective estimates for the iPhone X, the iPhone 8 or the iPhone 5 over the years.”

“In 2013, after Barclays lowered iPhone sales estimates, citing ‘our checks in the supply chain,’ Apple reported 2.4 million more units shipped than the research firm predicted. In 2017, Citi called iPhone demand ‘modest’ and ‘tempered,’ and Apple beat Wall Street projections for iPhone shipments by about 1 million,” Salinas reports. “As early as 2013, Apple CEO Tim Cook was warning against taking supply chain rumors to heart… In short, Cook said Apple’s network of suppliers is deep and complicated. One supplier cutting its outlook doesn’t necessarily mean iPhone demand is down.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: For sell-side analysts, “supply chain checks” means “let’s try to gin up some churn.” More investment turnover means more commissions for brokerages. Chatter, however baseless and/or mindless, is the impetus to get a staid stock price on the roller coaster that generates commissions from buy/sell orders.

SEE ALSO:
Poor news curation at Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters created misleading iPhone supply chain panic – November 19, 2018
WSJ: Apple slashes production orders for all three new iPhone models – November 19, 2018
Misreading Apple’s supply chain and iPhone XR demand – November 15, 2018
Apple: Ignore the noise – November 14, 2018
Dialog Semi says not seeing hit to demand from Apple – November 14, 2018
Don’t panic about iPhone sales just yet – November 14, 2018
Apple stock: This is not a repeat of 2015-16 – November 14, 2018
iPhone XR production cuts not due to soft demand – analyst – November 10, 2018
Apple’s Asian suppliers fall on report of canceled iPhone XR production boost – November 6, 2018
Nikkei claims iPhone XR production cuts, Apple stock drops over 3% – November 5, 2018
Uh, yeah, about those iPhone X ‘concerns’ from analysts: Never mind – May 1, 2018
Apple beats Street with best Q2 ever – May 1, 2018
Apple’s iPhone X isn’t selling well – or is it? – April 21, 2018
Apple’s iPhone X to be discontinued this year, analyst claims – April 20, 2018
Morgan Stanley: Apple stock may fall on ‘materially’ weaker iPhone sales – April 20, 2018
Apple’s iPhone X made 5 times the profit of 600 Android OEMs combined – April 18, 2018
Apple’s iPhone captured 86% of global handset profits in Q417; iPhone X alone took 35% of global handset profits – April 17, 2018
Bernstein: Ams AG is biggest winner in Apple’s TrueDepth Camera system – April 10, 2018
Apple’s iPhone X is the UK’s most popular smartphone – April 9, 2018
Apple’s iPhone X sales continue to disappoint, some analysts say – March 22, 2018
Ignore the iPhone X naysayers – March 10, 2018
Will the naysayers admit they were wrong about Apple’s iPhone X? – February 5, 2018
Do iPhone X sales spell trouble for Apple? – January 30, 2018
Apple supplier says report of iPhone X production cuts was overstated – January 30, 2018
Another January, another misleading iPhone supply cuts story from Nikkei – January 29, 2018
Apple stock drops after Nikkei report of iPhone X production cut – January 29, 2018
Reports of Apple cutting iPhone X orders make no sense – January 2, 2018
Apple stock tumbles on one poorly-sourced report of low iPhone X demand – December 26, 2017
Apple and suppliers shares drop on report of weak iPhone X demand – December 26, 2017
Nikkei: Apple to decrease iPhone production 10% in first quarter of 2017 – December 30, 2016
Nikkei proclaims ‘iPhone 7’ Dead On Arrival; bemoans Apple’s ‘lack of innovation’ – May 12, 2016
Japan’s Nikkei, The Wall Street Journal blow it, get iPhone demand story all wrong – January 16, 2013
Did Apple reduce 4-inch Retina display orders due to improving yields? – January 15, 2013
Analysts: iPhone 5 demand ‘robust;’ ignore the non-news noise – January 15, 2013
Apple iPhone suppliers decline on report orders cut by 50% – January 15, 2013
Apple swoon erases $17 billion from stock market – January 14, 2013
Apple iPhone 5 production cut signaling a new product release? – January 14, 2013
Apple drops to 11-month low on old reports of component cuts – January 14, 2013
The strange math of Apple’s alleged massive iPhone 5 component cuts – January 14, 2013
UBS analysts: Apple iPhone component order reduction ‘old news’ – January 14, 2013
Apple pulls down U.S. futures – January 14, 2013
Apple shares drop below $500 after reported cuts in iPhone 5 parts orders – January 14, 2013

10 Comments

    1. Typo correction,,

      And the good always brushed under the carpet.
      I see it as coordinated manipulation, and mass media and corrupt journalism is at the heart of it

      Why be selective…

  1. AAPL has now shed $47 in the past few weeks and is STILL dropping after hours.

    Ok one staring fan boys. At what price do you finally pull your head out of your ass and admit there is a problem? -$60/share? -$80? -$120?

    AAPL shareholders have experienced and continue to experience horrific losses, day after day after day.

    No buyers appear anywhere.

    Apple share buybacks are doing nothing to stabilize the price.

    Instead there is wholesale liquidation of positions by institutioinal investors. Every day.

    Drooling fan boys say that bad press is the reason for all this. That analysts are spreading FUD.

    Do you REALLY think that billions of billions of dollars are that stupid?

    Apple can have a smashing quarter in 90 days and will NEVER recover anywhere near the full 22% lost the past few weeks. This isn’t coming back folks. Not for a loooong time.

    I hold Pipeline fully responsible for this epic fail.

    1. Apple is still up for the year. And they set records in their most recent quarter. Yep, it’s an “epic fail” all right.

      Tink — Are you sure you’re not a Russian bot??

      1. Can’t read? I said name a price fan boy.

        AAPL is currently at $183 in pre market trading.

        The sell off continues.

        Pipeline still has drooling fan boys.

      2. The reality is that the reports over the past few weeks have not been the typical one or two companies or one or two analysts claiming that Apple’s sales are falling. This is several companies and several analysts.

        Is it possible that ALL these reports are wrong? Yes.
        Is it possible that ALL these reports are just market manipulation? Yes.

        However, it’s like the old story:
        One person calls you a Jackass you laugh it off.
        Two people call you a Jackass you should start to wonder.
        Three people call you a Jackass you should start to investigate getting a saddle.

        We’re well past the 3 people point this time with Apple. People need to start thinking about things. They need to investigate which reports are likely true and which ones are likely not.

        The current crop of reports are not the “same old, same old”. That warrants looking closer. Anyone who says otherwise is just not paying attention.

        Oh, and “up for the year”? Who gives a damn about that? Only those obsessed with the rear view mirror. Everyone should be focused on what Apple is doing now and plans to do over the next 3, 6, 12, and 24 months.

        1. It’s not just Apple, it’s all tech stocks taking a hit. The consensus is that it is a reckoning due to privacy and data concerns in the tech sector. Apple is unfairly being painted with the same brush. It will pass. Apple will be fine. Smart investors will buy more AAPL right now.

    2. You can blame today on Mike Pence destroying the hopes the market had that Trump would actually cut a deal with China. Apple and everyone else tanked today because the market sees Trump as capable of destroying world trade but always hoped that others in the administration would be the adults in the room. Pence stoked fears that the suicidal fanaticism of Trump’s economic jihad may just burn it all down.

  2. Is this the first time the Wall Street Journal itself is reporting “weak iPhone demand”? I think that carries a whole lot more weight on Wall Street than some analyst’s note…

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