Apple’s dispute with Qualcomm could last two years

“We estimate the majority of risks associated with the Apple dispute have been priced into Qualcomm,” Pacific Crest Securities writes via Barron’s.

“However, we acknowledge there are no catalysts in the near-term either: 1) The NXP acquisition is not expected to close until late calendar 2017; 2) The legal dispute with Apple could take up to two years to settle,” Pacific Crest Securities writes. “For long-term investors, we think the recent pullback presents a good buying opportunity.”

“In our base-case scenario we modeled a 45 basis-point decrease to 2.25% in future blended royalty rate due to expected settlements, and assuming NXP closes and complete loss of Apple’s modem business, our analysis still yields a Qualcomm valuation of $72, representing over 28% upside,” Pacific Crest Securities writes. “We also note that losing all of Apple’s modem business is merely a $1 hit to Qualcomm’s valuation in our model.”

Much more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: We can think of better long-term investments than Qualcomm.

Apple widens global patent war, files lawsuit against Qualcomm in the United Kingdom – March 2, 2017
Apple may have paid Qualcomm $40 per iPhone; accounting for 1/3rd of Qualcomm’s revenue – February 10, 2017
Conservative groups ask President Trump to terminate FCC lawsuit over Qualcomm patent licensing – January 27, 2016
Qualcomm CEO fires back at Apple: Bring it on – January 26, 2017
Apple sues Qualcomm in China seeking 1 billion yuan – January 25, 2017
Qualcomm comments on Apple’s lawsuits in China – January 25, 2017
Apple’s rebellion against the ‘Qualcomm Tax’ – January 24, 2017
Despite lawsuit, Qualcomm wants to keep doing business – January 24, 2017
Why Apple, the FTC, and others are attacking Qualcomm’s royalty model – January 24, 2017
Here are the most damning parts of Apple’s blockbuster lawsuit against Qualcomm – January 23, 2017
Apple’s legal assault on Qualcomm part of iPhone margin grab – January 23, 2017
Qualcomm says Apple’s claims are ‘baseless’ in response to Cupertino’s $1 billion lawsuit – January 21, 2017
Apple sues Qualcomm for $1 billion over onerous licensing practices – January 20, 2017
Qualcomm exec says FTC ‘rushed’ antitrust lawsuit before President-elect Trump’s inauguration – January 19, 2017
FTC alleges Qualcomm forced Apple into iPhone LTE chip deals – January 18, 2017
FTC charges Qualcomm with monopolizing key smartphone chip; alleges extracted exclusivity from Apple in exchange for reduced patent royalties – January 17, 2017
After eating Intel’s mobile lunch, Apple could next devour Qualcomm’s Baseband Processor business – January 20, 2015
Analyst: Apple’s going to dump Intel modems if they keep lagging Qualcomm – December 5, 2016
Yes, Apple is throttling download speeds for iPhone 7 and 7 Plus Verizon and Sprint versions – November 19, 2016
Apple’s modem choices may leave Verizon iPhone users feeling throttled – November 18, 2016
Tests show iPhone 7 Plus models with Qualcomm modem perform significantly better than those with Intel modem – October 20, 2016


  1. This dispute will probably last a long time and it could drive Apple away from Qualcomm for good. I’m not sure if Qualcomm will lose business from other companies because I’m sure those other companies don’t want to risk Qualcomm’s anger and maybe not have another supplier to go to for components. That’s pure speculation on my part. They’ll all have to weigh that decision individually and use the opportunity to try to lower the prices they’re currently being charged.

    I knew Wall Street would say that losing Apple is no big deal. If it was the other way around they’d say it would damage Apple immensely. Whatever. The analysts say they’ve done their evaluation, so I’m guessing they never make any mistakes. Good for Qualcomm if they’re so indispensable. I wish Apple was considered indispensable but apparently they’re not. I’m thinking if Qualcomm’s component isn’t included in the supposed iPhone super-cycle, they’ll be missing out on a big opportunity.

    What I find rather odd is how many analysts are saying that smartphones could be on the decline long-term and that would affect Apple. Well, then how come Qualcomm won’t also be affected by a long-term smartphone decline. All smartphones use baseband modems, so why wouldn’t Qualcomm’s revenue be affected in the long-term. It’s as though some companies are never affected adversely by anything except for Apple.

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