Ming-Chi Kuo trims iPhone XR lifecycle unit shipment estimates by 30 million

“Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has issued a new research note today, cutting his shipment estimates for the iPhone XR due to several factors,” Eric Slivka reports for MacRumors. “He believes that some of the decline will be offset by higher demand for iPhone XS and older ‘legacy’ models, but he is still reducing his overall iPhone shipment forecasts by 15–20 percent for the first quarter of 2019.”

We have reduced our iPhone XR shipment estimation from 100mn units to 70mn during the new product lifecycle (4Q18–3Q19)… We have reduced our XR shipment estimations for 4Q18, 1Q19, and 2Q19 by 30–35%, 25–30%, and 25–30% to 30–35, 20–25, and 10–15mn units, respectively.

Slivka reports, “Kuo’s prediction is somewhat curious given that he raised his early iPhone XR estimate a little less than a month ago and cited stronger demand than seen for the iPhone 8 last year with the potential for more stable demand over time.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Sometimes the tail wags the dog.

Exit question: How easy is it to make iPhone unit sales estimates when you now know there’ll never be any official numbers from Apple?

Apple supplier Lumentum slashes outlook after large customer requests shipment cut – November 12, 2018
iPhone XR production cuts not due to soft demand – analyst – November 10, 2018
Apple’s Asian suppliers fall on report of canceled iPhone XR production boost – November 6, 2018
Nikkei claims iPhone XR production cuts, Apple stock drops over 3% – November 5, 2018
Apple’s revolutionary iPhone X was the world’s best selling smartphone in Q118 – June 14, 2018
Nikkei again claims ‘weak demand’ for iPhone X despite much evidence to the contrary – February 20, 2018
iPhone X drives smartphone revenue dominance; Apple made more money in Q417 than the rest of the smartphone makers combined – February 16, 2018
Apple iPhone took more than half of worldwide smartphone revenue share in Q417, a new record – February 15, 2018
Apple supplier says report of iPhone X production cuts was overstated – January 30, 2018
Another January, another misleading iPhone supply cuts story from Nikkei – January 29, 2018
Apple stock drops after Nikkei report of iPhone X production cut – January 29, 2018
Canalys: Apple shipped 29 million iPhone X units in Q4 2017; world’s best-selling smartphone over the holiday season – January 23, 2018
Reports of Apple cutting iPhone X orders make no sense – January 2, 2018
Apple stock tumbles on one poorly-sourced report of low iPhone X demand – December 26, 2017
Apple and suppliers shares drop on report of weak iPhone X demand – December 26, 2017
Nikkei: Apple to decrease iPhone production 10% in first quarter of 2017 – December 30, 2016
Nikkei proclaims ‘iPhone 7’ Dead On Arrival; bemoans Apple’s ‘lack of innovation’ – May 12, 2016
Japan’s Nikkei, The Wall Street Journal blow it, get iPhone demand story all wrong – January 16, 2013
Did Apple reduce 4-inch Retina display orders due to improving yields? – January 15, 2013
Analysts: iPhone 5 demand ‘robust;’ ignore the non-news noise – January 15, 2013
Apple iPhone suppliers decline on report orders cut by 50% – January 15, 2013
Apple swoon erases $17 billion from stock market – January 14, 2013
Apple iPhone 5 production cut signaling a new product release? – January 14, 2013
Apple drops to 11-month low on old reports of component cuts – January 14, 2013
The strange math of Apple’s alleged massive iPhone 5 component cuts – January 14, 2013
UBS analysts: Apple iPhone component order reduction ‘old news’ – January 14, 2013
Apple pulls down U.S. futures – January 14, 2013
Apple shares drop below $500 after reported cuts in iPhone 5 parts orders – January 14, 2013


  1. Its the same story every time, once one “analyst” reports something everyone else jumps aboard, we will see many more of these reports followed with price target cuts and downgrades.

    Everyone wants in on the action and then when the earning report comes out all are proven wrong but of course no-one is held accountable for the fake news then

  2. Apple has a SERIOUS problem on their hands now that they will never report iPhone sales. Pipeline can cry all he wants about how these numbers dont matter but the market and analysts will have the final say on that. If they believe sales are falling, then the share price WILL get pounded. And pounded hard. Just like today. AAPL shareholders will get royally creamed and won’t have a earnings report to hang their hopes on where the truth will come out, because it never will now. So the analysts get the final say. Profits dont matter to the analysts, sales do. Apple has had stupid high profits for years and years, but the stock price moves on iPhone sales.

    These are very dark times to be an AAPL shareholder. The stock can pop for nearly $30 and STILL not reach its former high.

    What a crushing disaster for AAPL.

      1. And market sentiment will remain this way until Trump stops making everything cost more with his tariffs which will increase inflation and cause the fed to increase interest rates which will cement the certainty of recession.

  3. This is a transitional time. Don’t get your undies in a bunch and stop thinking like a daytrader. Apple is moving toward a services based business and their unprecedented spending on R&D will see it’s payoff sooner than later. SOME of what they are building needs 5G speeds so, while the current crop of products is fine, the AR tools, and more they will introduce in the next two years will crush most of what the competitors offer. Steve Jobs meant it when he said he would go Thermonuclear on them. When that explosion hits the shockwave is going to be enormous and last for years. The next big thing? Apple has it in the labs right now. They’ve made me wealthy already… so this retrenchment is just a short term low. These are not stupid people unaware of the world. They know EXACTLY where they are. They keep proving it and people STILL doubt them. If you are among those doubters.. ask yourself how many times you doubted them as they rose to become the world’s most valuable company?

  4. Ming is excellent at predicting new product launches and features. He has been horrifically awful in his estimates of iPhone sales numbers and AAPL parameters in general. He is treated as if he is the God of analysts. Stick with his new features, but he is one of the worst at predicting AAPL financials. If you don’t believe me, look it up. I can’t believe the market is so bonkers right now, but we will see what we will see. Stopping ridiculous, elevating tariffs would help.

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