Apple: Ignore the noise

“Apple makes for one of the safest long-term investments available in the market. Although the stock will have volatile periods, investors should let the company’s long-term prospects lead their investment decision,” Michael Wiggins De Oliveira writes for Seeking Alpha. “And above all, they should be guided by its valuation at all times.”

“Apple released its Q4 2018 results, which showed everything investors needed to know: the top line grew by 20% and EPS at 41%,” De Oliveira writes. “This information, together with its valuation, is all the insight investors truly need when it comes to Apple.”

“Yet, surprisingly, even after a remarkably strong quarter, investors are willing to exit the stock,” De Oliveira writes. “The iPhone is the main gateway to the company’s Services business (up 17% YoY). Apple is showing a strong ability to leverage off its key product, the iPhone, with other business lines. Yet, because guidance is weak into this holiday season, investors are exiting their investment, which is counter-intuitive.”

“When a highly followed stock has a myriad of analysts, investors, and all sorts of talking heads offering advice on the stock, a lot of noise accumulates. I, on the other hand, advocate that the best way to compound strong returns is by spending time invested in the stock rather than attempting to try to time entry and exit into the stock,” De Oliveira writes. “No investment is risk-free. That is not how investing works. But sometimes, some things do make intuitive sense… Overall, you can trust that Tim Cook, Maestri and the rest of their team are driven and highly competitive and will do everything they can to increase Apple’s intrinsic value.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: If you’re investing in Apple based on 90 days worth of iPhone unit sales, you’re too stupid to be investing.

Dialog Semi says not seeing hit to demand from Apple – November 14, 2018
Don’t panic about iPhone sales just yet – November 14, 2018
Apple stock: This is not a repeat of 2015-16 – November 14, 2018
Apple’s Asian suppliers fall on report of canceled iPhone XR production boost – November 6, 2018
Nikkei claims iPhone XR production cuts, Apple stock drops over 3% – November 5, 2018
Apple’s revolutionary iPhone X was the world’s best selling smartphone in Q118 – June 14, 2018
Nikkei again claims ‘weak demand’ for iPhone X despite much evidence to the contrary – February 20, 2018
iPhone X drives smartphone revenue dominance; Apple made more money in Q417 than the rest of the smartphone makers combined – February 16, 2018
Apple iPhone took more than half of worldwide smartphone revenue share in Q417, a new record – February 15, 2018
Apple supplier says report of iPhone X production cuts was overstated – January 30, 2018
Another January, another misleading iPhone supply cuts story from Nikkei – January 29, 2018
Apple stock drops after Nikkei report of iPhone X production cut – January 29, 2018
Canalys: Apple shipped 29 million iPhone X units in Q4 2017; world’s best-selling smartphone over the holiday season – January 23, 2018
Reports of Apple cutting iPhone X orders make no sense – January 2, 2018
Apple stock tumbles on one poorly-sourced report of low iPhone X demand – December 26, 2017
Apple and suppliers shares drop on report of weak iPhone X demand – December 26, 2017
Nikkei: Apple to decrease iPhone production 10% in first quarter of 2017 – December 30, 2016
Nikkei proclaims ‘iPhone 7’ Dead On Arrival; bemoans Apple’s ‘lack of innovation’ – May 12, 2016
Japan’s Nikkei, The Wall Street Journal blow it, get iPhone demand story all wrong – January 16, 2013
Did Apple reduce 4-inch Retina display orders due to improving yields? – January 15, 2013
Analysts: iPhone 5 demand ‘robust;’ ignore the non-news noise – January 15, 2013
Apple iPhone suppliers decline on report orders cut by 50% – January 15, 2013
Apple swoon erases $17 billion from stock market – January 14, 2013
Apple iPhone 5 production cut signaling a new product release? – January 14, 2013
Apple drops to 11-month low on old reports of component cuts – January 14, 2013
The strange math of Apple’s alleged massive iPhone 5 component cuts – January 14, 2013
UBS analysts: Apple iPhone component order reduction ‘old news’ – January 14, 2013
Apple pulls down U.S. futures – January 14, 2013
Apple shares drop below $500 after reported cuts in iPhone 5 parts orders – January 14, 2013


  1. “If you’re investing in Apple based on 90 days worth of iPhone unit sales, you’re too stupid to be investing.”

    Unfortunately this describes 95% of market participants, including institutional investors.

    1. That’s because the majority of “investors” are judged on quarterly performance. The advantage of being a individual investor is you aren’t judged by anyone but yourself. So profiting long-term is a snap.

  2. No, it’s real money and real valuation and real sharks who just cashed out, Why is everyone including MDN willing to make excuses for Apple this time? Apple made their fortune selling iPhones, investors need to see growth, and when you have Tim Cook saying anything other than he’s going to be fierce getting new sales and opening new markets and introducing new products, this is what you get, a total wipe out, and they missed by a small number. Nobody can say they feel Apple is being fierce getting sales when the market share never moves much. They raised the price. That’s all. It will bounce back, but investors have to ask based on what? Just profits, so let’s see. But Last Christmas this entire forum was calling for Tim Cooks head, and besides updates there’s not a lot to boast about this year.
    Expensive Updates. I disagree with MDN and critic2 above, who do you think sold? Institutional investors, they took their profit.

    Apple will need to show a lot of action to win them back, Hope they do it,

  3. Apple is NOT safe. They have grown complacent and sloppy in their success, and are loosing their famous customer satisfaction. I want to be rescued from Apple. Someone could suddenly sweep in and eat their lunch real fast.

    1. What you are trying to do is exactly what has been goin on the last 20 plus years. ”Somebody” from ”somwhere” is going to come and eat Apples ”lunch”. For your information Apple only eats strawberry cakes with chambagne and they do give some to their competitors so that they won’t be so sad.

    2. Apple still has by far the highest customer satisfaction rating in the industry. My personal experience with Apple customer service at the Apple store is as good as it’s ever been.

  4. I’ve been an apple fan for a long time. Got my whole extended family to switch a long time ago. I use to justify Apple’s high price on their products because they just work (worked). I also use to watch every keynote and presentation as well as buying the latest greatest. I don’t do that anymore. Only reason I have an 8+ is because I got it cheap after the X became available because someone was dumping their newly purchased iPhone for the X. Bought the first iPhone at launch and now I don’t know if I’ll ever purchase a new iPhone again. WAY too expensive for a phone. Best phone out there but no longer worth the price for many people.

    Apple products no longer just work. When they do an update on one of the products I use will usually break something. For the moment they still work better than android and microsoft but that gap has closed.

    Apple’s foundation is their hardware and the rest of their business builds on that. They’ve abandoned much of that base and made what they’re still updating more and more expensive. They’re slowly destroying that base so what will they have left to build their services business on?

    Job’s Apple – great products and the best service
    Cook’s Apple – squeezing every last dollar out of Job’s Apple while slowly setting it up for failure

    All that said, I’m sticking with Apple because I despise Google and their spying. However, I’ll most likely be getting Apple products used from now on. It’s a shame because I use to enjoy going to the Apple store.

  5. I’m guessing the XR has flopped. People are buying the XS and the 8+, but skipping the mid-priced XR. Suppliers have adjusted, but one piece of supply chain data… does not tell the whole story. Not sure why the mix of iPhones matters so much to the talking heads, when the EPS is great – are they all so butthurt because Apple is making money differently than they predicted?

  6. “because guidance is weak into this holiday season”

    There will be surprise. That safe net TC put is talking way more than Xr poor sale.

    In fact, you should put more on AAPL. The price now is becoming a real deal.

    Happy Holidays!

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