“In this form of analyst jujitsu,” Ray reports, “Guggenheim analyst Robert Cihra this evening reiterates a Buy rating on Apple, and a $215 price target, writing that the ‘supply chain negativity looks like a buying opportunity to us,’ and that ‘singular new iPhone X SKU’ is ‘starting a MULTI-year upgrade cycle (e.g., to OLED screens, 3D sensing/Face ID using on-device ML, AR) and NOT some big 1-year ‘super-cycle.””
We have repeatedly laid out that we do NOT see Apple’s new iPhone X setting up some one-year ‘super-cycle’ but rather that it represents a new high-end SKU with NEW TECHNOLOGIES that can drive an elongated MULTI-year upgrade cycle as OLED, 3D cameras, on-device ML, and augmented reality/ AR features waterfall into mainstream models over the coming 1-3 years. Ultimately, we continue to think that is an even better scenario for AAPL stock since a 1-year jump would have driven fears of a subsequent cliff, whereas we are currently estimating that after iPhone units grow +6%Y/Y in CY18E they can grow another +4%Y/Y in CY19E. — Guggenheim
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: It’s an extended super cycle as iPhone moves to OLED and, likely, thin-bezel Full Active LCD and drops antiquated times like the Home button and fingerprint readers, increasing ASPs and enticing upgrades.
Some iPhone upgraders were naturally skittish about iPhone X which is packed with new tech and lacks familiar items like the Home button and Touch ID. iPhone X has proven itself and passed all tests with flying colors while earning rave reviews. As people see next-gen iPhones using the TrueDepth Camera system, Face ID and dropping the Home button, the upgrade cycle will span years.
Furthermore, those of us with iPhone X units already hate the Home buttons on our iPads and cannot wait for Apple to release next-gen iPads that operate like iPhone X, so expect a nice round of iPad upgrades coming Apple’s way, too!
Piper Jaffray: Apple stock will move higher in ‘super-long cycle’ – January 3, 2018
Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple’s real iPhone supercycle will be in 2018 – December 13, 2017
Piper Jaffray: Apple’s delayed ‘super-long cycle’ will be all the better – November 30, 2017
Apple’s second, post-iPhone X super cycle – October 26, 2017
Analyst: Apple’s iPhone supercycle morphs into a ‘super-long’ iPhone cycle – October 23, 2017
Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple’s true iPhone ‘supercycle’ coming in 2018 – October 6, 2017
This Apple iPhone ‘supercycle’ could have staying power: Apple may enjoy two consecutive successful iPhone cycles – August 8, 2017
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Dan K.” and “Brawndo Drinker” for the heads up.]