Apple is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter 2026 results (the June quarter) after the market close on Thursday, July 30th, followed by its usual conference call. The release carries extra weight: it is expected to be Tim Cook’s final earnings call as CEO before hardware engineering chief John Ternus assumes the role on September 1, with Cook moving to executive chairman.
Consensus Estimates
Wall Street is looking for solid double-digit growth. Consensus forecasts (drawn from roughly 27–31 analysts) call for:
• Revenue of approximately $108.9 billion, up about 16% from $94.0 billion a year earlier.
• Diluted EPS of $1.89, up roughly 20% from $1.57 in the year-ago quarter.
These figures sit comfortably inside management’s prior guidance of 14–17% year-over-year revenue growth and a gross margin range of 47.5–48.5% (down from 49.3% in the March quarter as higher memory costs begin to weigh). Operating expenses are expected in the $18.8–$19.1 billion range.
Zacks consensus is nearly identical at $108.8 billion in sales and $1.88 EPS. Apple has beaten estimates in recent quarters, with an average earnings surprise of more than 7% over the past four reports.
Segment Expectations
• iPhone remains the primary driver. Analysts project iPhone revenue near $53 billion (some estimates range $53–$55 billion), representing roughly 19–23% growth from $44.6 billion last year, fueled by the iPhone 17 cycle, healthy upgrade activity, share gains, and a richer mix of higher-priced Pro models.
• Services, Apple’s high-margin growth engine, is expected around $31.4 billion, up from $27.4 billion a year earlier (mid-teens percentage growth). Investors will watch for any commentary on Apple Intelligence adoption and subscription momentum.
• Mac, iPad, and Wearables are expected to contribute more modestly, with some notes of supply constraints on certain Mac models.
Analyst Views
Several firms are slightly ahead of consensus. Goldman Sachs expects revenue of $110.1 billion (17% growth) and EPS of $1.93, citing outperformance in iPhone and Mac plus better margins; the firm raised its price target to $370. Bank of America models about $109 billion in revenue and $1.89 EPS. UBS is more cautious at $107.8 billion revenue and $1.84 EPS.
Key focus areas on the call are expected to include:
• Sustainability of iPhone demand into the September quarter and the upcoming product cycle.
• Gross-margin trajectory amid elevated DRAM and NAND costs.
• Progress on AI features (including the recent clearance for Apple Intelligence in Greater China) and any early metrics on usage or monetization.
• Forward guidance, especially for the September quarter, and any color on the leadership transition.
• Capital return, inventory levels, and China trends.
Apple stock has rallied strongly in 2026 (up roughly 24% year-to-date in some tallies), leaving the shares trading at a premium valuation — near 35–38 times forward earnings by some measures. That leaves limited room for disappointment. A clean beat paired with confident guidance on continued double-digit growth and stable margins would likely be well received; any soft outlook or sharper-than-expected margin pressure could prompt a more cautious reaction.
MacDailyNews Take: In a nutshell, analysts expect another strong quarter driven by iPhone and Services, but the real test will be whether Apple can sustain the momentum while navigating higher component costs as new CEO John Ternus, blessedly a product guy per se, prepares to take the reins. Apple Upgrade should help in this respect.
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