The Apple Watch is proving to be a big deal

“In the week of March 4th, market intelligence firm IDC published a report that made me even more optimistic about Apple’s future growth prospects,” D.M. Martins Research writes for Seeking Alpha. “The research company disclosed that the broad wearable devices market has grown a sizable 31% YOY in 4Q18. Even more relevant, the smartwatch sub-category saw its market expand by an impressive 55%, with Apple’s slice of the pie alone becoming about as large as all the other participants’ combined.”

“What I have been seeing lately in terms of smartwatch sales traction has exceeded my expectations,” D.M. Martins Research writes. “At one point in 3Q17, possibly still influenced by “expert opinions” on how much of a flop the Apple Watch had been as a new product category, I projected that the device could generate $11.8 billion in annual revenues by fiscal 2021. About one year later, I revised my estimates up to $16 billion on the back of encouraging metrics on the Series 3’s performance.”

Apple Watch Series 4 (GPS + Cellular) in Stainless Steel Case with White Sport Band (40mm left, 44mm right)
Apple Watch Series 4 (GPS + Cellular) in Stainless Steel Case with White Sport Band (40mm left, 44mm right)

“I believe my previously estimated 20% YOY market growth rate in fiscal 2021 to be too low of a projection. I now think that 22% might better reflect the smartwatch environment, decreasing at a more modest pace of 25 bps per year,” D.M. Martins Research writes. “Therefore, I revise my market growth projections upward for an estimated positive impact to sales of about $1 billion per year by fiscal 2021.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Some people get it, others don’t.

The stupidwatches currently on the market were rendered even more anachronistic dead ends today. If you have one of these wastes of time: Sell it. Get as much as you can for that piece of junk, make room on your wrist, and get ready for the world’s first real smartwatch: Apple Watch. Along with many millions of people, you are going to want an Apple Watch. All you have to do it touch it and see even a glimpse of what it can do and you’ll be sold… The Apple Watch is going to be a massive hit that sells millions upon millions of units.SteveJack, MacDailyNews, September 9, 2014

The Apple Watch is going to flop… The Apple Watch is Jonathan Ive’s Newton… Apple may have built out the watch to satisfy the urges of a designer who has become more obsessed with Bentleys and Rolexes than making attractive, functional technology that will actually make life better for the 99%. — Mark Wilson, March 2, 2015

Once people start using Apple Watch, they aren’t going to want to leave it at home. Ever. And that’s bad, bad news for watchmakers not named Apple.MacDailyNews Take, April 16, 2015

IDC: Apple No.1 in Q418 worldwide wearables shipments with 16.2 million units, 10.4 million of which were Apple Watches – March 5, 2019
Wearables market up 35% in first quarter as Apple maintains lead – May 23, 2018
Apple Watch: 46 million sold, user base likely 40 to 43 million – Horace Deidu – May 3, 2018
Apple Watch, not phones, powered Verizon’s subscriber growth – April 24, 2018
Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple Watch sales could top 40-50 million units within next three years – March 27, 2018
Apple Watch dominates smartwatch market – March 1, 2018
Apple’s line of smartwatches outsold the entire Swiss watch industry last quarter – February 12, 2018
Apple Watch sets new all-time record for wearables shipments; ‘Apple has won the wearables game’ – analyst – February 7, 2018
Apple Watch sales momentum is growing; unit sales now rival those of Macintosh – January 23, 2018


      1. You might have given us a clue you were going to say that.

        I think even 6 months ago trolls (and the usual idiots) stated as fact the Apple Watch was a Failure, in fact a few of them will probably still claim it. After all evidence and information and even common sense is the last thing they work by when they spent so much time tuning their Crystal Balls to the Loony Tunes channel.

  1. The best part about it is that Apple realized that the fashion statement of the watch was not going to create a ton of traction so they pivoted to a smaller amount of fashion and a lot of sport/fitness/health focus. This proves that Apple surveys and adjusts their strategy accordingly.

    1. I don’t disagree with you, but I believe Apple likely knew exactly what they were doing. They never expected to sell many solid gold Apple Watches, but they understood that watches occupy the realm of fashion and status. Whether the “killer app” was health, or sports, or something else yet to come, they had to fiercely separate the Apple Watch from the pack of drab or techno-fantasy competitors who’d already started to define the space.

    2. I disagree with your premise. Being an Apple product, fashion was only a part of it. I firmly believe that Apple knew from the beginning, since they were trying but not quite succeeding with the health part, but more so in 3 and even more in version 4 – the health aspect will be a major driver in sales. This would particularly be for diabetics and heart health issues. When the insurance companies get into subsidizing the purchases for health devices with early warnings, plus eliminating the need for the neck phone, THIS will result in close to as many sales world wide as the aesthetic, athletic and fan boy sales.

  2. I’m an “Apple anachronism”- I still have, use and love my original Apple Watch (Series 0?). I’m sorely tempted to upgrade to the Series 4, but I really don’t need it (as beautiful as it is). One day, for sure, but not yet…

    I do, however, wish they would make a round one. I prefer the round shape to the rectangle (no matter what the trade-offs would be). It would be perfect if we could chose which one best fits our individual taste…

  3. Improvements to the Apple Watch have been steady, significant, and well-thought-out. Bravo.

    Why not the same steady evolution for the Mac?

    Shouldn’t a once-a-year update be assumed for every product in the Mac lineup, even if it is a simply a decent price drop, more RAM, or just dropping in the latest CPU? I don’t expect radical updates every year for such a mature product. But is it really that hard to update a fairly mature product line with the newest tech, and/or add more value for the money?

  4. A mechanical movement is more reliable than an electronic movement that depends on daily recharging in a severe, widespread calamity caused by super erratic weather such as the one reported in the LA Times as being very possible.

  5. Cook disagrees with this headline.

    If the Watch was a big deal, its financial results would not be buried with the orphans in the Other category. Nobody outside Apple knows if it has made any money after all this time.

    Apple did pivot from fashion to health because its first effort was half baked. Sure its been polished annually unlike Macs, but the fundamental usefulness of these are totally niche. Nobody needs what Apple is selling. It’s a status symbol first and foremost because its health tracking to date has been proven inaccurate and easily spoofed. Apple continues to dump money into it in order to make it a medical device but Cook dramatically underestimated the effort required to develop and certify a medical device. It will take a while before Cook’s first fashion wearable is useful for anything beyond a fraction of the things that a real phone with a large display can do with more ease.

    1. I thought the same as you at first, until I got one. I had worn the same Rolex for 5 years, only taking it off to get it serviced. I got the first version Apple Watch in October of 2015 and have only worn my Rolex 5 times for a grand total of about 20 hours since then. It greatly improves the utility of an iPhone and is awesome for tracking fitness seamlessly.

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