Deutsche Bank: ‘iPhone 8’ sales will not eclipse iPhone 6 supercycle

“In an analyst note penned by Deutsche Bank,” Mike Wuerthele reports for AppleInsider, “the factors that led up to the 2015 iPhone 6 and 6 Plus release was the ‘real super cycle.’ Factors cited in that release year that ‘will not repeat’ including Apple’s adoption of larger screens in the iPhone, and the addition of China Mobile.”

“Deutsche Bank also believes that given the lack of carrier subsidies in 2017, that people are now holding on to phones longer, with the average refresh cycle claimed to be 2.7 years at present,” Wuerthele reports. “Another point of pressure acting against a super cycle is a possible price hike on the iPhone 7S family, with the iPhone 8 likely retailing for well more than $1000. The analysts believe that this will have a net negative effect on demand.”

“Wall Street is modeling shipments at 244 million units for fiscal year 2018,” Wuerthele reports. “Deutsche Bank sees about 230 million total units in the fiscal year starting in October 2017 —just short of the 231 million in fiscal year 2015 with the iPhone 6”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: iCal’ed for future use.

Data suggests millions upon million of iPhone users ready to fuel iPhone ‘supercycle’ later this year – April 21, 2017
More evidence for a looming iPhone ‘supercycle’ – April 10, 2017
Citi ups Apple price target to $160 on impending iPhone supercycle – March 6, 2017
Analyst: Here comes Apple’s iPhone ‘supercycle’ – February 21, 2017
Apple seen riding iPhone 8 ‘supercycle’ next year – October 14, 2016


  1. Overly negative view, if you ask me (not that I know everything). I have an iPhone 6 and I can assure you that I am DEFINITELY getting the iPhone 8. It’s been 3 years (that, BTY, > 2.7 years) and it’s time. Somehow (don’t ask me how), I doubt I’m the only one.

    The new facial recognition, wireless charging, better camera (WAY better than my 6), faster processor and larger screen in a similar form factor to the 6, will make the 8 SMASH success. They won’t be able to make them fast enough…

  2. This analyst is wrong. What will lead to another super cycle is that apple will have not updated the design of this phone for 3 freak’n years because the design department at apple has been getting high sniffing glue for years.

    China is very status oriented, and without a new ‘look at me and how special I am having this new phone” design for China, sales have sagged. Have some fresh new design will cause another big cycle.

    Dude is wrong, plain and simple.

  3. There were NEVER subsidies. It was merely a shifting of what you paid for, in the form of higher per month line fees in a lopsided exchange with the carrier. Over 2 years, you’d pay $960 per line for a $450 “subsidy.” Now that same line costs $360. So the “subsidy” actually cost $150 more.

  4. The iPhone has or is rapidly approaching the XP problem that plagued Microsoft years ago, and to some extent, today.

    For many consumers XP was a good enough version of Windows and met their needs. Despite the opinion of many Mac users, hundreds of millions thought it a good place to stop the previously common upgrade cycle of personal computers as the differences between generations was becoming less revolutionary and more evolutionary (iterative instead of disruptive). It could be argued that for many the same is now true of the iPhone and iPad.

    Joe and Jane six pack like the phone they have, tend not to use the bleeding edge functions power users and fanboys crave, and generally have better places to drop $600-1000. I would remind you that well over half of working Americans do not have the financial resources to handle an unexpected $500 out of pocket expense- that number does not include the retired who are also usually on a tight budget. Factor in that the big four wireless companies are no longer subsidizing the phones and what used to be a relatively painless upgrade is now a significant expense.

    Before you downvote the Post or fire off a comment about Apple being an aspirational Brand, no they are not in the phone space. They are playing in the broad market and trying to grow market share. The easy conquests are done and the customers that represent new growth are mostly on Android or feature phones. That puts the choice for a consumers at an expensive iPhone and a BOGO Samsung or equivalent. If you are a working class to lower Middle Class family with a couple of teens that means 4 new phones which can easily mean $2,400- 4,000 up front versus maybe $400-500 for an Android on the same network with the very same plan.

    I am not selling Android, but am pointing out the easy growth has happened, the iPhone is a mature platform, generational differentiation for most users is minimal and the price gap with Android is massive. That is what makes the skeptic in me say not so fast.

  5. I’m in the upgrade program. I could have gotten a new phone already but I’m holding out for the 8 . If half of what they’re saying is true I want the 8 . I have friends that are doing the same thing

  6. The amount I pay for AT&T services today and the days of subsidy are higher. The cancellation of the subsidy was not going to lower my phone bill. Therefore the subsidy did lower my phone purchase costs.

    At the same time, my disposable income Has gone up since the iPhone 6 days. The lack of subsidy is an annoyance rather than a determinating factor. Along those lines, the price of the flagship phone has gone up.

    I can see that if the iPhone 8 has no Touch ID, all bets are off and Deutsche Bank could be right for the outcome but not the means. Subsidy was not so much a factor outside the U.S., therefor I think people will tend to disagree with their logic.

    I hold onto my phones for four years. I also consider the sale of my old phone towards the purchase of my new phone. I buy new every year. Last year my four year old phone sold for $200, at a bargain.

    I encapsulate the logic of this article, but not the outcome.

  7. Ah well, it’s that time again, just before Apple Inc. report their quarterly results.

    The Financial Institutions are fed up with smart people sitting long in AAPL because it does not generate any income for them (poor buggers!), so what do they try and do, scare investors to sell up or buy, so that they get their transaction fees.

    Smart investors just hold fast, enjoy the stellar dividends and laugh at all the negative and desperate articles trying to force investors positions.

  8. I think Apple has a perfect storm brewing of pent up demand for something new from the acolytes as well as people being teased constantly about how much better the iPhone 8 will supposedly be, plus all the talk about the anniversary of the iPhone seeping into their subconscious minds.

    I don’t know what “ellipse” means in this context, but I’m sure the 8 will do as well as any of the predecessors, and possibly eclipse most of them if not all.

  9. 244 vs 230 million… lol…and how does This Deutsche Anal-cyst come to such high degree of acuracy. 14 million out of 244 million discrapancy .. .0.05% Lol. What is the margin of error in their study?
    Amazing insight he has … … he should work for Apple…

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