Will Android tablets really pass Apple’s iPad in 2013?

“The technical answer is yes,” Ben Bajarin writes for TechPinions.

“Android AOSP (Android open source project) meaning Android code that can be freely taken and used will be installed on more tablets than iPads in 2013,” Bajarin writes. “But the story isn’t that simple or clean cut. Data requires perspective and that is what I hope to provide around IDC’s latest press release and chart predicting that Android will be on more tablets than iOS in 2013 and beyond.”

“Now at first glance we look at that chart and mistakingly assume that the red part, which signifies Android, means a flavor of Android with universal value to both Google and developers. If I was a developer, I would look at that chart and think that Android tablets must be where I should focus my resources because it is clearly the OS market share leader starting in 2013 and beyond. However, if I thought that I would be wrong.”

Bajarin writes, “To get an accurate picture of the Android market, it is more helpful to break out market share by devices which have the Play store and the ones that do not. If we did, then IDC’s, chart would look more like this…”

Read more, and see the very illuminating charts, in the full article – highly recommendedhere.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews readers too numerous to mention individually for the heads up.]

Related articles:
IDC: Android to pass Apple in tablet market share this year – March 12, 2013
Apple’s iPad dominates tablets with 81% Web usage share; Amazon Kindle Fire distant 2nd with 7.7% – February 6, 2013
Apple iPad dominates U.S. and Canadian tablet Web traffic with 87% share in December – December 27, 2012
Eight reasons why Apple’s iPad will continue to dominate the tablet market – November 30, 2012

iPhone users watch twice as much online video as those with Android phones – March 12, 2013
Where are the Android users? – March 11, 2013
With 78% share, Apple’s iOS tightening its grip on the enterprise and taking share from Android – March 8, 2013
Apple rules the skies with 84% in-flight share vs. Android’s 16% – March 7, 2013
Apple iPad continues domination with over 80% usage share in U.S. and Canada – March 7, 2013
comScore: Google’s Android, Samsung continue to lose U.S. share to Apple’s iOS, iPhone – March 6, 2013
Apple iOS dominates mobile video viewing with 60% share vs. Android’s 32% – February 13, 2013
Android’s Web share down 13% since November; Apple’s iOS now over 60% – February 1, 2013
Android’s unit share growth has not hurt Apple’s profit share – February 26, 2013
Apple iOS dominates mobile video viewing with 60% share vs. Android’s 32% – February 13, 2013
Android’s Web share down 13% since November; Apple’s iOS now over 60% – February 1, 2013
IDC: Apple dominates worldwide tablet market with 43.6% unit share – January 31, 2013
The Android engagement paradox – November 26, 2012
People buy more Android phone units and do less with them vs. Apple’s revolutionary iPhone – November 14, 2012
Study: iPhone users vastly outspent Android users on apps, respond much better to ads – August 20, 2012

20 Comments

    1. Predicting sales numbers based of your hopes and dreams is delusional at best. When you are loosing money making something, loosing customers that you use to supply parts to, spending money that someday soon will cost more than 0% has and end to it. I see that one of the e-book suppliers is trying to dump theirs now. Apple will be there in the end.

  1. I see in that linked article that the screwed up chart is still being used. The “other” section in green that looks like it is 15% or 20% is less than 1% or 2% when you read the numbers. You think someone would fix it or make their own from the data by now.

  2. Depends how you count Android. If you include the million pieces of junk deposited in landfills everywhere, then yes.

    Otherwise, not a chance in hell, or until hell freezes over, whichever comes first.

    Well, one could argue that if you’re an Android user, you’ve reached hell anyway, so…congratulations on winning the junk award of the year.

    1. They won’t wind up in land fills. They will be sold at steep discounts to be sold through info-mercials . . . “But wait, if you call now, we will include another tablet at no additional cost, just cover shipping and handling. . .” Or they will be given away as door prizes at sales seminaries for get-rich-quick stock sales, bonuses for taking timeshare tours, and attending house-flipping dinner/sales pitches. Every one of them will eventually wind up in the drawer with discarded cell phones of the past because they will not live up to the hype of them being “an iPad like tablet just for attending!”

  3. A friend demo’d her widescreen Samsung tablet with plug-in keyboard the other evening.

    Have to say it looked great with that panoramic screen – but picture show performance was staccato at best, and caused her much tutting.

    Since she’s from a ‘Doze background, all was normal and apparently acceptable. Weird, huh?

    1. Not weird. Troubling. When hundreds of millions of people think that is what a tablet experience is their inclination to move to the real deal (iPad) is much lower. That’s what Apple confronted for years in the Windows vs. Mac battle: Everyone just assumed computing was hard. Marketing from Apple that said otherwise was clearly just self-serving advertising that wasn’t to be trusted.

  4. The fragmentation spoken of in the market with the Chinese versions not connected to Play Store is a real eye opener. Google gets no benefit from Android there and little benefit from the US Play Store either. Then with the number of screen sizes and other forked versions, there seems little that can be done to make Android a money maker for Google or the manufacturers. The only clear winner seems to be Samsung the Apple copier.

  5. “Will Android tablets really pass Apple’s iPad in 2013?”

    Of course they will — as, also, will rusty bicycles throughout India and China. Doesn’t much matter, for either.

    But anyway – meaningless, as there really is no such thing as “Android”. When animals diverge enough that they can no longer interbreed, they are no longer one species but two. It’s silly to then talk about them as one thing.

    So let’s changes that to, “Will all these numerous tablets with numerous incompatible operating systems made by ALL other companies on the plant really pass Apple’s iPad in 2013?”

  6. A bit of real life: There are lots of flies in the world. The are drawn to excrement. It happens.

    Another factor: This year’s Android excrement is incrementally better than last year’s Android excrement, so it is slightly more palatable, thus drawing more flies.

    And another factor: Amazon has INCREASED its LO$$E$ with the sale of each Kindle Fire thingy for the sake of BUYING more MARKET SHARE.

    And none of this has anything to do with the fact that there is THE insanely-great tablet available for those with the best of taste in computer ware. If it’s the Mac vs Windoze story all over again, what’s the BFD? Competition is a good thing, even if its only between excrement and yummy nums.

  7. we are not sure. but Android will slowly pass over iOS anyway. apple innovation stops working. plus, new S4 is awesome. apple will lose itself in the market anytime soon.

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