Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com, is predicting in a video commentary that “Apple will dump Apple TV in 2008.”
Swann says, “Apple will dump Apple TV by year’s end. Despite much hype, the Internet TV set-top has been a bust, selling only about 400,000 units. Apple will try to boost sales in early 2008 by introducing some new features such as high-def video. But it won’t work, in part because Americans have ‘set-top fatigue.'”
Direct link to video via YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yc4E7DqCTV4
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: To clarify: that 400,000 that Swanni quotes is the figure that Forrester Research claims Apple has sold to date this year while predicting another 400,000 units will be sold in the holiday quarter (Swanni left that part out) which makes 800,000 units for a device that has received scant marketing as Apple continues to try to line up (read: fight and drag Hollywood kicking and screaming into the present) real, meaningful content with which to feed it and, presumably, develop other delivery options beyond simple direct sales of content (TV shows and movies) that most people wish to consume only once (delivery options such as rentals and/or subscriptions).
Seriously, can sales of 800,000 units in the first year for a device getting hardly no marketing really be called a “bust?”
And, Swanni, “Apple TV” can’t go out of business. “Apple TV” can’t be embarrassed as it’s a metal and plastic box full of circuit boards, a hard drive, etc. “Apple TV” can’t give up and say “let’s move on.” Swanni, the company is “Apple Inc.” and the product is called “Apple TV” and, hey, if it doesn’t work out, no biggie. Apple has plenty of other irons in the fire.
Please note that Phillip Swann also called Apple’s video-capable iPod a “bust” and predicted, “The video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly.”
So, Swann has been iCal’ed. We shall see if Apple TV makes it through 2008. Regardless of the outcome, we will revisit Swann’s prediction on January 1, 2009.
Related articles:
TV analyst says Apple TV will bomb – March 21, 2007
TV analyst says Apple’s video-capable iPod is a bust because he says so – May 03, 2006
TV analyst blows it, says Apple’s 12 million video downloads ‘a big disappointment’ – February 08, 2006
TV analyst’s uninformed prediction: ‘video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly’ – October 12, 2005
” there is no reason to “dump Apple TV” even if sales continued at the current rate.”
But the Mac faithful have already gone out and got all the AppleTVs they want. Where are the next 800,000 sales going to come from? It seems this product only appeals to people who have already drunk the cool aid.
Now that Steve Jobs has been pissed off by the tv industry this this guys remarks… Apple TV isn’t going anywhere but up… with the additional marketing due out in 2008!
But I would like to see the new improved Apple TV sporting a new combined look… that of both Apple tv and wireless feature in one box… hell I would even pay a little more for that feature! Plus of course HD and a larger Hard Drive…
People want their tv experience to be bigger than Apple tv currently provides. Minimal content is obtained via the internet right now, and AppleTV doesn’t really offer that much new value to tv watching– none of these boxes do yet. Really, such a box should give us entry into all internet media, offering a new viewing experience all together. HD content is good, but people live with crappy online video all the time and don’t care that much; VCR quality is acceptable, too. The real issue is content. And currently, the stuff out of Hollywood is not that compelling. There’s more creativity coming from regular folks with no budgets.
When AppleTV provides access to the web in a useable format– like the Podcast Channel, so you don’t have to download through iTunes all the time, it might be a start, I think. The cool thing is that the direction of this product type hasn’t really been determined yet. Once someone hits on the right formula, there may be a very notable change in peoples media consuming behavior. Another paradigm shift…
The Confuzed1 says: “All I’m waiting for is a subscription system, and I’m in.”
=======================
That’s all I need in my life, another damned subscription. I only have about 37 of them. What I think most people want is an HD rental model. I pay for what I want to watch (rental), when I want to watch it (probably once), instead of paying Apple $19.99 per month in perpetuity. If they give us a choice between subscription and pay per rental, that’s fine, but if they force me into a subscription model, I will not be purchasing an Apple TV.
‘”Lets see….400,000 x $300 = $120 million”
So Apple has Zero costs? iSuppli estimated there were $237 of parts in an Apple TV’
iSuppli are full of sh*t. Apple’s not stupid, they would have some very good deals with a lot of the parts as they are in multiple products of theres. iSuppli has claimed a lot of pricing on Apple products but forget that Apple doesn’t pay what the rest of the world pays. Apple would earn over $100 per Apple TV and I’m sure $40,000,000 covers the development costs and gives them a nice little profit. Not to mention the sale of TV shows, Movies and Music. You should also note they’ve only really marketed the product on their website and in store, which is cheap advertising for them.
Lets not forget the iPod was never an overnight hit, I only really heard about it around generation 3. And then I never owned one until the first nano came out. Apple TV is a future product, it’s only for people that like to have the bandwidth to download lots of movies, and for people that love new gadgets for their tv. ATM dvds are still the best and most affordable way to watch movies, and they probably will be for another 3 or 4 years, then blu-ray will eat HD-DVD and will become affordable enough to take over DVD – This may also be the time people move to digital movies as a convenience thing. Apple TV is not going to disappear whilst Jobs is in charge, because jobs isn’t going to watch the movie industry go down like the music industry has. He’s got in early to prevent this from happening. I don’t think he really cares that much about selling millions yet, he just want to provide an alternative to illegally downloading movies.
Why stop at Apple TV? There is absolutely no interest from consumers for expensive and proprietary toy MACs that can’t play games and most music enthusiasts are switching to Microsoft’s fantastic Zune from their too little, too late I-PODs. Dump them both, I say.
One more thing Apple should dump to save themselves is that ridiculous OS X abomination. Without OS X Apple would then be free and clear to license Windows from Microsoft. Problems solved.
Your potential. Our passion.™
Phillip Swann, has the huevos to make his opinions public. Of course, few here posts their real names and places of employment much less links to YouTube.
It’s easy to make bold assertions with total anonymity, in fact, it’s completely spineless.
AppleTV is a product slightly ahead of its time. A simple elegant device for storing all the family’s media, rented and bought will be the future.
For this product to be a winner it has to be developed and that is what I expect. Expect a more powerful version and a novel way of getting HD content onto the device without having to download.
Macromancer predicts in a year Swanni’s quote will be gleefully posted here weekly right next to the Laura Goldman quote.
See, I can predict things too.
“If Apple doesn’t wake up, the Apple TV will be consigned to history as a failed product.”
I love how people overuse the phrase “wake up” as if they are the only ones with some sort of insight.
Trust me, Apple doesn’t need to ‘wake up’. They know exactly what they are doing. AppleTV will be a big moneymaker for Apple in the years to come.
Once people know what the AppleTV does they are very interested. I have had two people ask me about mine in the last week. I’ve never been asked about it since I have owned it. Everyone that sees it is amazed. I mostly use mine for music, and podcasts, but also have a lot of DVD rips and bittorrent TV shows. I think that as Apple adds features, it will accelerate the sales of AppleTV. They are accounting for the revenue over two years, so I am assuming that YouTube is not going to be the only added functionality that they are going to do. If you look at what the hackers have been able to get it to do, you can see the potential.
Hey, Fred, what’s “anonymous” about my name? People hate me in multiple spaces, not just here. As many listen to me as The Voice of G.L.Horton’s Stage Page every day. (and some say I have no shame!) Logins are a Good Thing, you ought to get one before you start defending trolls.
My 3G iPod caused a fight on the trip to “Grandma’s House” yesterday. It so confused my wife and frustrated me that we went for an hour with no music at all. FINALLY we got a break and I got to actually see what she was “seeing” … stuck on the “Settings” menu, she had set it to “Repeat … One”. I like Ella F, honest, but the fourth time through one song was too much for me. OK, my wife is not STUPID … just a bit inept. Had I not been able to”fix” it, she’d have driven ALL the way home.
Apple TV establishes the centerpiece in Apple’s home entertainment initiative. It creates the needed retail channels and gives various allies a target to design to.
In addition, along with the Mac, iPhone, iPod touch and any other coming OS X enabled devices, Apple is putting on a squeeze play to force developers and websites to support open standards, including open codecs. This never was a battle that was going to be won by blitzkrieg. This is a strategic campaign aimed to clear away the DRM and proprietary roadblocks that Mafiasoft has used to control and dominate the web.
For example; Apple’s ally Google has committed to providing H.264 encoded content for YouTube content. Adobe has announced that it will provide the same support inside of flash.
As the Mac takes a significant chunk of market share from Windows based boxes, Apple TV will gain in its capabilities ON APPLE’S TERMS. And when the strategic campaign is won, a massive banquet of crow will await the moron analysts and pundits without the brains to see the real nature of the war for the living room.
Here’s my prediction…
Apple recently trademarked Triple Play because that is what your Movie rental scheme amounts to, 3 plays for something like $2.99. There will also be a new Apple TV unit in 2008.
Let’s see who’s right, the all knowing Phil or a nitwit like me. My money says we’re gonna be calling this guy “Mr. Goldman” pretty soon.
@LinuxGuyAndMacProdigalSon
Well put. I couldn’t have said it better myself. Nor would I have attempted to.
Can you pick a shorter name?
Wait until Steve-o’s keynote. If nothing is said about AppleTV, then we should be scratching our heads as to the future of this device.
fm
“It’s easy to make bold assertions with total anonymity, in fact, it’s completely spineless.”
Beautiful irony there, “Fred”.
My Mac IS my TV (thanks, ElGato!), so I’ve no need for an AppleTV.
Stick that in your pipe and smoke it.
Maybe Fred is his real name?
I mean, how many could there be?
Steve Jobs is waiting for new Apple Cinema displays with HDMI and (maybe) another model with an ATSC tuner, along with the full-fledged movie rental service before launching an improved Apple TV with a full-press marketing plan.
Apple’s already put the necessary 802.11n WiFi and a backup strategy in place and added gigabit Ethernet to the Airport Express. But, he would never launch a major marketing campaign in an important consumer electronics category without HD-ready Apple Cinema displays…After all, the display is the most prominent component in any HDTV system, and Jobs will want an Apple logo on the display, to compete directly against Sony. If H-P can sell HDTV’s and Sony can sell computers, Apple can sell HDTVs.
Swanni, what tool you are! C’mon, can’t you see the future from where you’re sitting?
Apple TV is positioned to become the biggest sleeper hit of 2008.
See, I can make wild ass predictions too, only mine are more accurate.
(^_^)
Actually, Apple TV can be embarrassed. Someone came to my Christmas party with a Zune and the thing actually said “I’m embarrassed for you.” Now I’m scared to sleep in my own home.
“Maybe Fred is his real name?”
Good point. It’s probably how he’s known worldwide like Cher, Madonna or Liberace.
Right, said Fred?
Okay. Everyone who started a new business last year and generated 120 million in revenue raise your hands.
Mr. Swann? Mr. Swann…are you telling me that TV predictions.com did less than 1 million in revenue? And your putting the shutters up when????
TT,
Yeah, she told me about that little incident. And she DID say LITTLE!
I don’t know which creeps me out more – the thought of my wife in Spandex or me in a Speedo. Not a pretty picture.