Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com, is predicting in a video commentary that “Apple will dump Apple TV in 2008.”
Swann says, “Apple will dump Apple TV by year’s end. Despite much hype, the Internet TV set-top has been a bust, selling only about 400,000 units. Apple will try to boost sales in early 2008 by introducing some new features such as high-def video. But it won’t work, in part because Americans have ‘set-top fatigue.'”
Direct link to video via YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yc4E7DqCTV4
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: To clarify: that 400,000 that Swanni quotes is the figure that Forrester Research claims Apple has sold to date this year while predicting another 400,000 units will be sold in the holiday quarter (Swanni left that part out) which makes 800,000 units for a device that has received scant marketing as Apple continues to try to line up (read: fight and drag Hollywood kicking and screaming into the present) real, meaningful content with which to feed it and, presumably, develop other delivery options beyond simple direct sales of content (TV shows and movies) that most people wish to consume only once (delivery options such as rentals and/or subscriptions).
Seriously, can sales of 800,000 units in the first year for a device getting hardly no marketing really be called a “bust?”
And, Swanni, “Apple TV” can’t go out of business. “Apple TV” can’t be embarrassed as it’s a metal and plastic box full of circuit boards, a hard drive, etc. “Apple TV” can’t give up and say “let’s move on.” Swanni, the company is “Apple Inc.” and the product is called “Apple TV” and, hey, if it doesn’t work out, no biggie. Apple has plenty of other irons in the fire.
Please note that Phillip Swann also called Apple’s video-capable iPod a “bust” and predicted, “The video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly.”
So, Swann has been iCal’ed. We shall see if Apple TV makes it through 2008. Regardless of the outcome, we will revisit Swann’s prediction on January 1, 2009.
Related articles:
TV analyst says Apple TV will bomb – March 21, 2007
TV analyst says Apple’s video-capable iPod is a bust because he says so – May 03, 2006
TV analyst blows it, says Apple’s 12 million video downloads ‘a big disappointment’ – February 08, 2006
TV analyst’s uninformed prediction: ‘video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly’ – October 12, 2005
Fred,
I knew Fred. Fred was a friend of mine. You’re not Fred.
Fred Mertz posts here. He is the true Fred. He and his wife Ethel are famous celebrities known world wide. So there!
Wow. If everybody commenting on this non-story would have bought one of these door stops, the 400,000 figure being tossed around by MDN might be closer to accurate.
I just purchased my 2nd Apple TV for the upstairs bedroom. It is set for wireless and downstairs is on Ethernet. Both do what I want. 6500 photos 13500 songs, 100 TV shows, and 650 movies. We rarely watch live TV, with the exception of PBS. I think that with the coming software revisions, you will see this device come to the forefront of Apple sales.
Where do you get the simplicity of viewing home movies, and photos along with purchased and archived content with a simple remote that my wife can use with out referring to a manual. Its value is in it does what it does flawlessly.
Uh, Pudge – did you actually count the number of comments? I’m not trying to be critical, but I think your arithmetic skills just might be a little lacking. You use Windows, don’t you. I’m sorry.
Can you put up a section about all the things you Ical’d so that we can see how they are going? You seem to mention it alot but there is not alot of follow up. Plus I would love to see if some people are actually right (I know this one won’t be)
Seems like even if Apple only sold 400 AppleTVs, they’d probably still break even or make a small profit on the whole venture.
Really, how much R&D;do you think was required for these things?
Take a Mac mini, remove the optical drive and cut the case down, put in a cheaper CPU, drop in a video chipset that has HDMI etc outputs, tweak Front Row so that it loads at boot and add add a bit of Bonjour code so it can get content from remote as well as local iTunes libraries, and you’re basically done.
I’m not saying AppleTV isn’t well-designed, or didn’t have some good thought put into it, just that Apple really can’t stand to lose much either way.
Mmmmmm, Spandex.
You made me giggle Ampar.
“Phillip Swann, the «Zune» of TVPredictions”
and that’s all that’s worth saying about that.
Samsung T10 2 and 4 Gb
is BLOWING the Zune away in sales.
Plus it’s a nicer design and functions well.
Sorry I only played with it for 4 hours.
But I love my Silver 8 Gb iPod Nano and continue to show people why… even while in the Best Buy and in Futureshops across town. Better over all device.
Suck your passion – huh ZTwang
Dougless
BUT inside the iMAC 2008. W8 n C.
Dougless
Macro – big
Sloth – lazy slow moving
MacroSloth pls use it wisely – hahahahahah
not MicroSloth – thx
Dougless
Sure, I accept… it does seem spineless to hide behind a false identity… but I have nothing to gain and nothing to prove…
also, in the event I loose my true identity to the internet over freedom of speech and things that truly are trivial; I remain behind this pointless name…
Dougless
I would advise others to do the same… but they are bold and fearless and hope to make something of themselves perhaps through this tiny community of MacDailyNews articles.
peace
@ Ampar:
My thread was not a reactionary fanboish response. It was an observation of some peoples’ penchant to criticize others who speak their minds publicly while they themselves remain unassailable in the refuge of their own anonymity. I may disagree with Swann, but I respect him for freely and openly making his views and opinions known. Interesting social dynamic, eh?
Anonymity has a purpose when life, limb, and liberty are threatened. The strident comments against Swann have nothing to do do with the protection and preservation of individual freedom.
Fred
LorD1776:
I never claimed to be yer friend, but that doesn’t mean that I’m not Fred, does it?
Oh Fred, Fred, Fred! I was referring to the REAL Fred being a friend of mine. But there is no reason you (as the faux Fred) and I cannot be pals. I mean, can’t we all just get along? We could start a club called The Friends of Fred. It could be national with local chapters and everything! I’m getting excited! This is BIG Fred! Let’s do it! We must end this animosity amongst us. I’m sure Ampar would want to join us. After all, I would imagine we are all getting a little Fred up with this Fred stuff.
LorD1776:
How do you define “real”? How do you know that I’m not the “real fred” and how would you prove it?
Fred,
This is a true conundrum. A veritable Catch-22. I feel as if we have been caught in an infinite loop of Fredness! There is only one way out. You MUST change your name to Frank! This will certainly put an end to this foolishness. Then we can ALL be Frank with each other. Ohhh crap ….. !!!
LorD1776:
If you cannot accept that more than one “Fred” exists in the universe I cannot help you.
I apologize that my previous questions were to difficult for you to answer, I had you confused with thoughtful and an intellectually honest person.
Fred,
But which universe do you speak of? Ah, there’s the rub, eh?
Apology accepted. Apparently you don’t understand or approve of my admittedly bizarre sense of humor. I can deal with that. But it must be a sad, gray little world you live in. I feel sorry for you. Have a nice day.
LorD1776:
But which universe do you speak of? Ah, there’s the rub, eh?
Considering that we are communicating on the same blog, I reckon that we are members of the same universe. Unless, of course, you are aware of more than one “uni-verse”, which, by definition, contains ALL matter and energy of this planet called Earth; the solar system; known and unknown comets, stars, nebulae, and galaxies; and intergalactic space. After illuminating all of us on the existence of more than one “uni-verse” please explain how sentient beings on different “uni-verses” can communicate between them.
Apology accepted.
You are welcome and I accept that you agree that you are neither thoughtful nor intellectually honest.
Apparently you don’t understand or approve of my admittedly bizarre sense of humor.
I’ll provide you my opinion of your comic talents whenever you write something funny or witty.
Fred,
Ohhhh No !!!
Too late to kiss and make up now Fred. You had your chance and you blew it. I don’t care how much you beg and plead, it will never be the same between us. After all this time, and all we have meant to each other, you have done a thing like this.
Well, I will go on with my life somehow, as painful as it is, and I suggest you do the same. Good luck to you, and no hard feelings.
LorD1776:
Whatever.
If it were up to me, I think Apple should grab a hold of hit cancelled shows that never got to finish their stories such as “Surface” and make it an iTunes only series. This way it would help Apple to expand into the creation aspect of the arts beyond the tools.