Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com, is predicting in a video commentary that “Apple will dump Apple TV in 2008.”
Swann says, “Apple will dump Apple TV by year’s end. Despite much hype, the Internet TV set-top has been a bust, selling only about 400,000 units. Apple will try to boost sales in early 2008 by introducing some new features such as high-def video. But it won’t work, in part because Americans have ‘set-top fatigue.'”
Direct link to video via YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yc4E7DqCTV4
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: To clarify: that 400,000 that Swanni quotes is the figure that Forrester Research claims Apple has sold to date this year while predicting another 400,000 units will be sold in the holiday quarter (Swanni left that part out) which makes 800,000 units for a device that has received scant marketing as Apple continues to try to line up (read: fight and drag Hollywood kicking and screaming into the present) real, meaningful content with which to feed it and, presumably, develop other delivery options beyond simple direct sales of content (TV shows and movies) that most people wish to consume only once (delivery options such as rentals and/or subscriptions).
Seriously, can sales of 800,000 units in the first year for a device getting hardly no marketing really be called a “bust?”
And, Swanni, “Apple TV” can’t go out of business. “Apple TV” can’t be embarrassed as it’s a metal and plastic box full of circuit boards, a hard drive, etc. “Apple TV” can’t give up and say “let’s move on.” Swanni, the company is “Apple Inc.” and the product is called “Apple TV” and, hey, if it doesn’t work out, no biggie. Apple has plenty of other irons in the fire.
Please note that Phillip Swann also called Apple’s video-capable iPod a “bust” and predicted, “The video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly.”
So, Swann has been iCal’ed. We shall see if Apple TV makes it through 2008. Regardless of the outcome, we will revisit Swann’s prediction on January 1, 2009.
TV analyst says Apple TV will bomb – March 21, 2007
TV analyst says Apple’s video-capable iPod is a bust because he says so – May 03, 2006
TV analyst blows it, says Apple’s 12 million video downloads ‘a big disappointment’ – February 08, 2006
TV analyst’s uninformed prediction: ‘video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly’ – October 12, 2005