“In the past three downturns, says analyst Toni Sacconaghi, Apple’s share price bottomed only after sell-side EPS estimates had bottomed,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Apple 3.0. “From a note to clients that landed on my desktop Wednesday:”

Before this most recent swoon, Apple’s stock had materially underperformed the market only three times within the last decade: (1) the iPhone 5 cycle from late 2012 to 2013; (2) the iPhone 6S cycle in early 2016; and (3) the first half of the iPhone X cycle…

Apple’s stock price has historically bottomed only once sell-side EPS estimates have bottomed… Sell-side estimates have only been revised downwards by -0.8% so far, and history suggests that the stock is unlikely to inflect until estimates stop coming down.

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Watch the lemmings. They’re predictable.

When the lemmings, er… ‘analysts’ start their upgrade parade, then you’ll know the bottom has been found. — MacDailyNews, November 26, 2018

SEE ALSO:
RBC cuts Apple price target citing ‘data points around soft iPhone demand from supply-chain and others’ – November 27, 2018
Apple rout worsens after President Trump suggests the U.S. could place a 10% tariff on iPhones and laptops made in China – November 27, 2018
Is Warren Buffett adding to Apple under $175? – November 26, 2018
Explaining the recent Apple selloff, and why the stock looks undervalued – November 23, 2018
Apple is no longer worth anywhere near one trillion dollars – November 23, 2018
Apple to lower iPhone XR pricing in Japan in order to boost sales – November 23, 2018
Why the bad news on Apple keeps on coming – November 23, 2018
In the darkest hour of Apple’s ‘white-knuckle period,’ some investors are loving it – November 21, 2018