Apple lead times suggest even better days lie ahead for Mac and iPad

Demand for Mac and iPad over the past 12 months has been strong, propelled by the digital transformation and work- and learn-from-anywhere tailwind. Currently, Apple lead times suggest even better days lie ahead for Mac and iPad.

Gene Munster and David Stokman for Loup Ventures:

On Apple’s March earnings call, management guided to a $3-4B combined headwind for these two segments in the June quarter due to supply constraints, noting, “we expect to be supply gated, not demand-gated.” Our spot check of Apple lead times suggest the company was right, and that demand is still outpacing supply as we exit the June quarter. Net net, we see the positive demand tailwind as much stronger and more sustainable than any supply headwinds. Estimated delivery dates for some iPad and Mac models are more than a month out:

While interpreting lead times is more art than science, we’ve observed that during periods of supply demand equilibrium, lead times are typically less than 2 business days. Keep in mind, June is typically the slowest quarter for Apple, so if there was ever a quarter for the company to catch up supply with demand, it’d be this one. Taking a step back, many thought the March quarter was as good as it gets for Apple, with 70% and 79% growth for Mac and iPad, respectively, and 54% overall revenue growth. In our view, things are going to get even better for Apple, driven by an accelerating digital transformation that we cannot yet fully comprehend.

MacDailyNews Take: The Mac and iPad certainly have seen and continue to see a silver lining in the COVID-19 cloud. Apple Silicon also clearly helps with both Mac and iPad sales.