UBS sees iPhone purchase intent at five-year low

“UBS maintains a Buy rating on Apple, but cuts the target from $225 to $210,” Brandy Betz reports for Seeking Alpha.

“Analyst Timothy Arcuri says iPhone purchase intention is ‘down across the board’ with particular weakness in the U.S. and China,” Betz reports. “The firm’s proprietary survey showed U.S. buying intent dropping to a five-year low, matching the iPhone 6S. Only 18% of respondents planned to buy a new iPhone in the next year, down from 21% last year and the 17% of October 2015.”

Betz reports, “The survey included 6,900 consumers across five countries and happened after the XS and XS Max were launched.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: So, what’s the margin of error on this survey? (crickets)

Also, 18% does not “match” the 17% from the iPhone 6s-era (2015) survey (which is 3 years ago, not 5). It’s one percentage point higher and given that the range being discussed here runs from 21% to 17%, that’s worth quite a bit. One percentage point of a four point range is worth 25%, in fact. Again, all of this could be in the margin of error, of course, which is not disclosed in this or any other report we can find.

Specious arguments based on nebulous data are useful tools for Apple shorts and other fomenters.

Lastly and oh by the way, just this past June, UBS analyst Steven Milunovich wrote in a note to clients that Apple is more than just iPhones. “We think the narrative is shifting from iPhone units to a consistent franchise with low single-digit hardware growth augmented by higher-margin, faster-growing services,” Milunovich wrote while raising his target price to $210 from $190.

What’s changed that’s worth $300+ billion in market value? Unit sales reporting and pretty much nothing else.

Now, can we please see this get talked down to below $170, pretty please?

Don’t get mad at the manipulators. Understand them, learn to recognize when their playbook goes into effect, and profit from their actions. — MacDailyNews, November 27, 2018

AAPL is like a buoy. Quick, it’s back on the surface! You there, analyst, and you, too, swim down and tug on the chain! Drag it under… lower, lower… Good! Now, quick, everybody jump on, and we’ll take a ride back up to the top again!MacDailyNews, January 9, 2012

At the most basic level, it’s extremely simple: Pump, then dump. Foment, then buy. Rinse, lather, repeat as the SEC sleeps.MacDailyNews, April 26, 2012

Even if a particular data point were factual it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business… There is just an inordinate[ly] long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what’s going on. Apple CEO Tim Cook, January 23, 2013

SEE ALSO:
Apple shares continue to fall as iPhone lens-maker reports sales drop; analysts downgrade – December 6, 2018
The pessimism and hypocrisy surrounding Apple is endless – November 28, 2018
Here’s why Apple is ending unit sales reporting of Mac, iPhone, and iPad – November 28, 2018
The end of iPhone, Mac, and iPad unit sales reporting is not bad news for Apple – November 27, 2018
Is Warren Buffett adding to Apple under $175? – November 26, 2018
Explaining the recent Apple selloff, and why the stock looks undervalued – November 23, 2018
Apple is no longer worth anywhere near one trillion dollars – November 23, 2018
Apple to lower iPhone XR pricing in Japan in order to boost sales – November 23, 2018
Why the bad news on Apple keeps on coming – November 23, 2018
In the darkest hour of Apple’s ‘white-knuckle period,’ some investors are loving it – November 21, 2018
Misreading Apple’s supply chain and iPhone XR demand – November 15, 2018
iPhone XR production cuts not due to soft demand – analyst – November 10, 2018
Nikkei claims iPhone XR production cuts, Apple stock drops over 3% – November 5, 2018

18 Comments

  1. Apple thought they can simply charge and charge us higher prices without any real innovation. The only “innovation” they have are gimmicks they’ve designed for the presentations to fool us into thinking it’s new. It’s just fancy sleight of hand to wow people with eye candy. Nothing more.

    Apple died when Jobs died. They’ve been running on the last of Job’s vapors and that’s evaporated and gone. That’s what happens when you’re a one trick pony.

    1. Well said. The market has absolutely b!tchslapped AAPL since the last earnings call. Why? Because the complete fraud of Pipeline has been fully exposed.

      Pipeline has nothing in the pipeline.

      No Mac Pro.

      No AirPower.

      Nothing.

      He’s all talk, no action.

      He’s surrounded by blank eyed, slack joweled, drooling morons.

      Explain why Eddy Fscking Cue has a job.

      What does he bring to the table?

      Answer: Laziness.

      Investors see that Pipeline’s plan is to raise prices on a dwindling product line.

      A new dongle is needed.

      Would Steve Jobs have produced a Mac that cannot be attached to an iPhone without a dongle?

      Hell. No.

      Pipeline has.

      And that, in a nutshell, shows what a feckless moron he is.

      Apple now has a Steve Ballmer.

      Monkey Boy now works for Apple.

      Pipeline is a blithering idiot and the market knows that.

      Week after week after week, the stock is hammered.

      Remember that trillion dollar market cap?

      Keep that memory tight. It won’t be back.

      Not as long as the limp wristed board keeps Pipeline in charge.

      Want a return to better days for Apple?

      Then dump Pipeline.

      Now.

    2. Yes, indeed. Jobs pipeline has certainly evaporated. The phone improvements are marginal at best and simply not worth the cost. Consumers for the first time in a long time are weaning themselves off the Apple reality distortion field…

  2. Really – we are listening to these guys? If purchase intent was so low at the 6S level i guess that is why they sold so many iPhone 7’s.. I guess they invalidated their own surveys.

  3. It’s time for drastic measures. A new letter must be found. Clearly X and S have outlived their market potential. I see a great deal of potential in iPhone O (as in OH) or Z.

    The iPhone Z is coming…

    In Jony Ive’s voice…

    zed noun
    \ˈzed \

    chiefly British
    the letter z
    First Known Use of zed
    13th century, in the meaning defined above
    History and Etymology for zed
    Middle English, from Middle French zede, from Late Latin zeta zeta, from Greek zēta

    Zed meaning last. Or Omega as in the iPhone O because iPhone is the last word in modern communications technology.

    1. Consistent with the times, I suggest abandoning letters in favor of emoji. For example:

      The iPhone [ThumbsUp] and its larger version [ClappingHands]

      Think of the impact.

  4. O’s and Z’s have been around too long. They need to invent a new letter kinda like they do emojis. It worked for Kwanzaa.

    I noticed that Apple can’t even keep their iPad names straight. Now the sizes are listed, basically, as part of the name. Not even GOOD marketing people have taken over.

    1. It’s getting to be like the ’90s all over again.

      Need a laptop? Well, we have the MacBook, but it only has one port, so there’s the new MacBook Air that has two, but then you can also get the MacBook Pro with four and more features, but then you have to figure out which size, and if you need the TouchBar.

  5. Right now, I’d be happy to see $210. At least that would be close to a $1T market cap. Anyway, as long as Apple is buying back shares, I’m not going to fret about Apple’s share value. There’s nothing I can do about it, anyway. I’m just concerned about next quarter’s report when no one outside of Apple will be able to tell how many iPhones have been sold. Anal investors need to be able to count those unit numbers.

    1. Explain what good share buy backs are if the stock price keeps getting killed.

      The ENTIRE point of buying back shares is to up the share price.

      Otherwise it’s just pissing money away.

      Amazing how people are unclear on this simple concept.

      1. I have faith that the share price will go up sometime next year. Sure, right now, things look quite poorly with AAPL and hopefully the company will come out with some other popular products or improved Services. I wish Apple had acquired an unlimited growth cloud business, but that didn’t happen. I’m still not throwing in the towel. Nothing is ever guaranteed in the stock market. Apple is still near the top of the tech stocks, so I think there might still be some hope Apple will pull out of this funk.

        All this negative talk is based on supply chain reports, so I listen and take them with a grain of salt. I do believe iPhone sales have hit a wall and that’s very unfortunate. Apple’s share price is getting killed based on negative stories without any solid proof of unit sales. We’ll just have to wait until the next quarterly report to verify if all this negativity is true, but only in terms of revenue and profits, as no unit sales will be reported.

        I agree that it does seem as though Apple is pissing money away, but if it helps keep the dividends coming for those who truly believe in the company, then I think it’s a good thing, although not the perfect solution to give value to the company.

        1. Apple pissing away money on share buy backs that produce no increase in share price is money that is NOT available for dividends. It’s money flushed down the toilet.

          Apple’s dividends are some of the worst in the tech industry. I need to hold my shares now 24 years to make up what I have lost the past 5 weeks. 24 years!

          Apple is truly lost now. They have no leadership and are resorting to EVERY trick in the book to fake growth.

          Today Apple fell to the THIRD most valuable company in the world, now behind both Microsoft and Amazon.

          Another downgrade is around the corner for Apple so they will drop some more.

            1. von Tink is at least becoming an institution of the MDN forum. He is now a resident entertainer whom we needed to smile and laugh.
              Pull up your stool and enjoy it!

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.