Apple: What the past and present tell us about the future

“Apple has massively rewarded those who took the risk of owning the stock over time. We also know that Apple shareholders have had some nervous years along the ride,” Logan Kane writes for Seeking Alpha. “Despite the volatility seen in the stock, the company’s fundamentals are solid.”

“The volatility has a lot to do with who your fellow shareholders are and not as much to do with Apple’s profits and revenue,” Kane writes. “While Apple hasn’t done what I initially expected it to do this fall, the stock is an even better long-term buy now than it was a couple of months ago.”

“To illustrate this point, I built a graph of the last 10 years of Apple which shows the cumulative drawdowns in the stock. During this time, had you bought and hold AAPL, you’d be up over six times your original investment plus dividends, even after the 20+ percent drop since the most recent high,” Kane writes. “During this period, you would have had to endure drawdowns of 60 percent during the 2008 crisis, 40 percent in 2013, close to 30 percent in 2016, and over 25 percent now.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Smart investors can tune out the specious noise.

Analysts see Apple’s long-term potential despite recent overwrought selloff – November 30, 2018
The pessimism and hypocrisy surrounding Apple is endless – November 28, 2018
In the darkest hour of Apple’s ‘white-knuckle period,’ some investors are loving it – November 21, 2018
Poor news curation at Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters created misleading iPhone supply chain panic – November 19, 2018
WSJ: Apple slashes production orders for all three new iPhone models – November 19, 2018
Misreading Apple’s supply chain and iPhone XR demand – November 15, 2018
Apple: Ignore the noise – November 14, 2018
Dialog Semi says not seeing hit to demand from Apple – November 14, 2018
Don’t panic about iPhone sales just yet – November 14, 2018
Apple stock: This is not a repeat of 2015-16 – November 14, 2018
iPhone XR production cuts not due to soft demand – analyst – November 10, 2018
Apple’s Asian suppliers fall on report of canceled iPhone XR production boost – November 6, 2018
Nikkei claims iPhone XR production cuts, Apple stock drops over 3% – November 5, 2018


  1. Maybe someone can explain why Microsoft is able to outperform Apple for the entire year with an EPS of 2.43 to Apple’s 11.91. Apple’s dividend is higher than Microsoft’s dividend, so that should also be in Apple’s favor. Apple’s fundamentals are (seem) much better than Microsoft’s and yet Apple stock is far more volatile and vulnerable to all sorts of unsubstantiated rumors and predictions. I don’t know what Apple would have to do to get serious long-term investors. Maybe Apple’s business model is just poor, but it really doesn’t seem that way to me apart from its continued volatility.

    It seems as though too many cowardly investors own Apple stock. Their lack of balls is pathetic. Why does Apple always attract these lousy types of investors even as the share count drops? How does it make any sense to buy a stock and then dump it immediately because it drops? If investors had the balls to hold onto their Apple stock, then the stock wouldn’t be so volatile.

    1. Pipeline is the cause of all evil and ills! Pipeline is the reason Windows still runs on over a billion PCs! Pipeline smokes crack using his Pipeline!

    2. 85% market share in personal computer OSes, growing corporate customers, diversified high volume production, and being the de facto standard office suite will do that for you.

      Apple has built a house of cards with all products made in China, and all services operating on rented AWS servers. Apple has no price controls so it’s massively exposed if/when imports are slapped with a 25% new Great Again tarriff. Cook no doubt has been sucking Trumps little weeny for months trying to prevent the Apple profit implosion.

      Rush to get your overpriced Apple watch band before prices go up.

        1. True, they could … but they won’t.

          And with the Trump-China “90 day hold” on the tariffs, we can expect the Stock Market to knee-jerk up this morning….

          …but this is merely a temporary reprieve – in all likelihood, we’ll be back to this same point of limbo in 89 days and the markets will again fall.

          And there will be some people who will be surprised. /S

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