“Over the past few years, I’ve become accustomed to a seasonal downturn in Apple’s share price that roughly correlates with the seasonal downturn in iPhone sales,” Mark Hibben writes for Seeking Alpha. “The weakest period for iPhone sales typically is in the April-September time frame.”
“My opinion, and it’s only an opinion, is that this is driven by negative coverage of Apple, and especially about iPhone, during the same time frame,” Hibben writes. “Coming off the December quarter iPhone sales peak, there’s a tendency in the media to play up the sequential decline as being more meaningful than it really is. This continues into calendar Q3 as consumers understandably start to hold back making new iPhone purchases in the runup to the September iPhone launch.”
“It’s during this time that the noise level of media coverage reaches its peak. Speculation becomes rife in the absence of facts regarding the new iPhone models,” Hibben writes. “Invariably, the speculation is negative.”
MacDailyNews Take: We refer to this, internally, as “Back up the Truck” season.
“The media focused on TSMC’s supposed negative guidance, as exemplified in Bloomberg’s ‘Chipmakers’ Rout Widens After TSMC Ignites Smartphone Fears,'” Hibben writes. “TSMC’s sales outlook was depicted as ‘disappointing.’ The cut in its full-year revenue forecast from 10%-15% y/y growth to about 10% y/y growth was depicted as due to ‘weakness in demand for iPhones.’ The article states: ‘As the main manufacturer of Apple’s processors, its tepid revenue forecast also revived fears that the iPhone X may already be losing momentum a quarter after its release.'”
“But note that the forecast cut was only in the amount of year-over-year growth. TSMC wasn’t trying to say that revenue would decline, or even that growth would be less than last year. The 10% growth forecast was still better than the guidance that TSMC offered this time last year of 5%-10% revenue growth for the year,” Hibben writes. “In fact, TSMC achieved 9% y/y growth for 2017. TSMC’s guidance for Q2 also was better than last year, when it forecast only a 3% y/y increase, which is what was eventually achieved. So, in the context of last year’s guidance and results, TSMC’s guidance of 10% y/y revenue growth is actually better than last year.”
“The fact that Bloomberg was so anxious to portray TSMC’s guidance as a negative, and then lay this at the feet of iPhone X, should be deeply disturbing to any objective observer,” Hibben writes. “There simply was no basis for the inference that has been widely made that TSMC’s results and guidance foretell a steep decline in iPhone sales.”
Much more in the full article – highly recommended – here.
MacDailyNews Take: Again as we wrote last month:
We won’t know for sure until we see this quarter’s (Apple’s fiscal Q218) results in May, since iPhone sales actually did increase YOY when you compare apples to apples, as opposed to comparing the 13-week 2017 holiday quarter to a 14-week 2016 holiday quarter and calling it a “decline,” when it wasn’t.
This is what we know for sure:
iPhone X was the best-selling smartphone in the world in the December quarter according to Canalys, and it has been our top selling phone every week since it launched. iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus rounded out the top three iPhones in the quarter. In fact, revenue for our newly launched iPhones was the highest of any lineup in our history, driving total Apple revenue above our guidance range… The iPhone X was the most popular and that’s particularly noteworthy given that we didn’t start shipping until early November, and we’re constrained for a while. The team did a great job of getting into supply demand balance there in December. But since the launch of iPhone X, it has been the most popular iPhone every week, every week sales. And that is even through today, actually through January… We feel fantastic, particularly as it pertains to iPhone X. — Apple CEO Tim Cook, February 1, 2018
Profit from the ill-, mis-, and uninformed.
Counterpoint Research: In Q1, Apple grew 32% YoY in China due to strong iPhone X performance – April 26, 2018
Apple iPhone X supplier Samsung warns of weak display panel demand – April 26, 2018
How many iPhones did Apple sell last quarter? – April 25, 2018
Apple’s iPhone X isn’t selling well – or is it? – April 21, 2018
Morgan Stanley: Apple stock may fall on ‘materially’ weaker iPhone sales – April 20, 2018
Apple’s iPhone captured 86% of global handset profits in Q417; iPhone X alone took 35% of global handset profits – April 17, 2018
Apple’s iPhone X is the UK’s most popular smartphone – April 9, 2018
Apple to release Q218 earnings, webcast live conference call on May 1st – April 3, 2018<