BlueFin: Apple’s ‘iPhone X’ sees massive manufacturing surge; build plans at record levels

“BlueFin Research Partners analysts John Donovan and Steve Mullane today offer up their latest findings regarding Apple’s schedule for the presumed forthcoming ‘iPhone X,’ the 10th anniversary iPhone, which will start very slowly next month, they predict, before a ‘massive’ surge in production, and sales, presumably, in the fourth quarter,” Tiernan Ray reports for Barron’s. “The authors are struck by what seem to be very bold build plans.”

“The two analysts write that Apple will probably have its contract manufacturers build 53 million iPhones in total in the company’s September-ending fiscal Q1, with perhaps only 5 or 6 million being the iPhone X; the balance will be a mix of iPhone ‘7S’ and ‘7S Plus,’ the main difference being the simpler machines have traditional LCD screens instead of what is expected to be the iPhone’s first OLED display in the X model,” Ray reports. “But after September, the authors see a rapid run-up in production of X, to perhaps 44 million units in the December quarter, and around 30 million each quarter after. ‘According to our estimates, build plans for the balance of 2017 and for all of 2018 are at record levels,’ they write.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: The Mother of all iPhone Supercycles looms!

UBS sees massive pent-up demand for Apple’s next-gen iPhones – July 25, 2017
Data suggests millions upon million of iPhone users ready to fuel iPhone ‘supercycle’ later this year – April 21, 2017
More evidence for a looming iPhone ‘supercycle’ – April 10, 2017
Citi ups Apple price target to $160 on impending iPhone supercycle – March 6, 2017
Analyst: Here comes Apple’s iPhone ‘supercycle’ – February 21, 2017
Apple seen riding iPhone 8 ‘supercycle’ next year – October 14, 2016


  1. OMG! So many high-powered thought leaders, the absolutest of intelligentsia, are breathlessly gushing over the OLED iPhone numbers. It’s as if children blowing into a balloon, blowing, and blowing the then,…POP! It busts into jibber jabbers to reveal that there was nothing there.

    I hope, and fully expect, that MDN is correct to call the anticipated iPhone sales a super cycle.

  2. Where’s all the BS about how Apple doesn’t need to produce a lot of iPhones because they’re going to be too expensive for anyone to buy? Or some poll interviewing about a 100 people who say they’re not going to upgrade because the iPhone 8 doesn’t have enough innovation. There’s always some BS about why consumers aren’t going to be buying the next iPhone each time Apple is about to announce a new model.

    I’m really hoping FacialID becomes a huge success for Apple so Apple can shut up all the jackasses who are always saying Apple can’t innovate. I’m willing to bet if FacialID becomes a hit feature, there will be dozens of Android manufacturers dumping their fingerprint sensors for Apple’s infrared tech. It’s a darn shame Apple couldn’t patent that infrared touch sensor tech or have exclusivity rights for a year or so. C’mon ‘supercycle’ if there really such a possibility of that happening.

    What I’m really curious to see is if Samsung actually decides to go with an embedded-display touch sensor on next year’s Galaxy S and Note models if Apple’s FacialID becomes the hot, new standard for unlocking a smartphone. There are rumors saying FacialID will unlock an iPhone just by looking at it. Now that’s pretty slick if it’s true.

  3. “… a rapid run-up in production of X, to perhaps 44 million units in the December quarter, and around 30 million each quarter after.”

    That’s the normal trend and while the numbers are getting bigger, the rapid build up followed by a drop back to lower production levels has happened exactly like that for many years.

    Keep it in mind this November and December when analysts once again will report that Apple has reduced components orders by 15-20% for the first quarter of 2018 ( when the factories close for Chinese New Year ) and then try to make people imagine that iPhone must be a failure and Apple is doomed.

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