How Apple’s iPhone beats Android in U.S. market share by 2015

“Before we know it, Apple could begin to regain market share in the smartphone market — at least that’s what a recent study from Yankee Group asserts,” Daniel Sparks reports for The Motley Fool.

“The premise is simple: When Google Android ownership peaks, the iPhone’s 91% retention rate versus Android’s 76% rate will drive iOS market share gains,” Sparks reports. “Retention matters, Yankee Group argues. Yet, oddly, Apple’s unparalleled customer loyalty has gone largely unnoticed in most market-share forecasts. It’s something that should be closely considered in any sales projections.”

Sparks reports, “According to this forecast, iOS will surpass Android in U.S. market share by 2015. Even more shocking, iOS is predicted to have 42% market share compared with Android’s 34% by 2017… Here’s another fact from the study to chew on: ’18 percent of Android owners intend to switch to Apple with their next smartphone.'”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: All while Apple maintains their dominant share of the smartphone market’s profits, too!

Think of the Apple and Android ecosystems as two buckets of water. New smartphone buyers — mostly upgrading feature phone owners — fall like rain into the two big buckets about equally, with a smaller number falling into Windows Phone and BlackBerry buckets. However, the Android bucket leaks badly, losing about one in five of all the owners put into it. The Apple bucket leaks only about 7 percent of its contents, so it retains more of the customers that fall into it. The Apple bucket will fill up faster and higher than the Android one, regardless of the fact that the Apple bucket may have had fewer owners in it to begin with. – Yankee Group VP Carl Howe

J.D. Power: Apple ranks highest in smartphone customer satisfaction for 9th consecutive time – March 21, 2013
J.D. Power: Apple iPad ranks highest in tablet customer satisfaction – September 13, 2012

Yankee Group: Apple continues to eat Samsung’s lunch; customer loyalty will drive iPhone ownership past Android’s peak – April 26, 2013
Apple’s iPhone user gains again out-pace Android in the U.S. – April 5, 2013
Why Apple’s new iPhone can’t lose; as with all iPhones, next-gen likely to become best-selling smartphone of all time – April 4, 2013
Apple increases lead over Samsung, gains on Google’s Android in U.S. smartphone market share – April 4, 2013
Analyst: Apple iPhone 5 got over 5X times as many tweets as Samsung’s lackluster Galaxy S4 – March 27, 2013
Yankee Group: Apple to gain additional U.S. smartphone share over Samsung in 2013 – March 20, 2013
With 78% share, Apple’s iOS tightening its grip on the enterprise and taking share from Android – March 8, 2013
Apple rules the skies with 84% in-flight share vs. Android’s 16% – March 7, 2013
Apple iPad continues domination with over 80% usage share in U.S. and Canada – March 7, 2013
comScore: Google’s Android, Samsung continue to lose U.S. share to Apple’s iOS, iPhone – March 6, 2013
World’s best-selling smartphone: Apple iPhone 5; iPhone 4S #2, third place Samsung Galaxy 3 brings up rear – February 20, 2013
Apple iOS dominates mobile video viewing with 60% share vs. Android’s 32% – February 13, 2013
Android’s Web share down 13% since November; Apple’s iOS now over 60% – February 1, 2013
Android’s unit share growth has not hurt Apple’s profit share – February 26, 2013
Apple iOS dominates mobile video viewing with 60% share vs. Android’s 32% – February 13, 2013
Android’s Web share down 13% since November; Apple’s iOS now over 60% – February 1, 2013
IDC: Apple dominates worldwide tablet market with 43.6% unit share – January 31, 2013
The Android engagement paradox – November 26, 2012
People buy more Android phone units and do less with them vs. Apple’s revolutionary iPhone – November 14, 2012
Study: iPhone users vastly outspent Android users on apps, respond much better to ads – August 20, 2012
Apple utterly dominates mobile device market with 6% market share – and 77% of the profits – August 6, 2012


    1. Me for one. I care, and so do many investors. Every droid sale is one sale Apple did not get. And once one loads up on apps etc they are more likely to stay with droids. You think Ford is not watchful of Chevy? You bet they are. There is a tipping point where Apple could see a reversal.

      1. Apple should go after those Android sales, but they aren’t the brightest bulbs. I have a few friends who picked up Samsung phones to be contrarian and cheap, more than anything. And yet, they also own iPads, so are double-paying for apps in some instances. Eventually, you’d think they’ll realize their waste and mistake. But like I said, not the brightest bulbs…

      2. You think Maserati is watchful of Chevy? Not!
        You think Apple’s market is cheap people that will spend $0 dollars on a phone?
        You think those cheap people are going to spend $100++ on apps?
        What a waste of time.
        Tipping point? What BS. 😎

        1. You really can’t load all customers into one group. Not everyone who owns an iPhone is wealthy or has a lot of discretionary cash. Many non-Apple Smart phone buyers have plenty of money and the willingness to spend it. Never turn away a customer. If you can get them to buy their first iPhone they’re likely to at least want to buy another one when it’s time to upgrade. All money is green. No matter who is holding it. Apple is not a niche retailer.

    2. As an Apple shareholder, I’m concerned. The news media has a tendency to blow any losses for Apple out of proportion and I don’t care to listen to trash talk all the time. Apple should be positively crushing rivals to the point Samsung shouldn’t even be constantly mentioned in the same sentence with Apple.

      It used to be Apple was taking all the profits, now suddenly it’s both Apple and Samsung and tomorrow it will be Samsung and then Apple. It’s already been predicted that Samsung will be the leader in smartphone profits before this year ends. Not that predictions necessarily become true, but I’m just saying… I am somewhat concerned.

  1. You look at AT&T smartphone sales which are announced quarterly. The figures don’t lie – 70% of smartphone sales are iPhones. Similar story with Verizon – 60% of smartphone sales are iPhones. And in Sprint’s case, 54% of smartphone sales are iPhones. These are numbers reported by the carriers which are subjected to rigorous audits by independent auditors.

    Contrast that with reported sales numbers generated by market research companies. We don’t know how reliable their data is and the methodology by which they use to collect the data. Some of them generate data by polling random users and people pulled off the streets. Also how truly independent are they from the people paying for the data. Take Samsung for example – they can pay any number of market research firms to generate bogus data showing fictitious sales numbers for Android because they know that they have the element of deniability when someone questions the validity of the data.

    These market research companies probably trawled the trailer park for their numbers. So by definition these numbers will be skewed towards Android. But what does it all mean anyway when these Android phones are nothing more than glorified feature phones. It’s like saying Hyundais outsell Porsches. Do you really want that demographic supporting your future sales?

    1. 70% ATnT, 60%verizon, 56%sprint? How were iphone sales before? Iphone sales were higher than these percentages. Anyway, iphone should still be having a great number of market share in the US. Iphone is apple. Apple is a USA company. I am from a different country but iphones here are not selling as much as they used to. Samsung LG HTC huawei and ZTE are dominating the store sales. American buyers don’t see what is happening outside the US. I used to buy iphones since 2007 until i tried android jelly bean Samsung Galaxy Note 2 and i don’t even envy or wish for an iphone 5 or 5s. I am wishing for Note 3. I love android ecosystem. It is very convenient to use. It makes tasks easier done than using an iphone or ios. Most if not all used-to-be iphone users i know who shifted to android never regretted their shift and are actually very happy. There are tons of stuffs that iphones can’t do that android can unless iphones are jailbroken. I want to want iphones again but for the time being, i just can’t. Sorry but iphone needs a lot of catching up.

  2. I merely don’t like these futuristic predictions. In the smartphone industry a couple of years is a long way off when there seems to be a quarter for quarter battle going on in terms of increasing or decreasing market share. Apple will need to pull off a couple of years of consistent iPhone hits against Samsung. Samsung is definitely out to destroy Apple’s smartphone empire and will use whatever means possible to do so.

    I don’t think every Android smartphone sale is a loss for Apple, but I know Samsung is offering incentives to carrier salespeople to sell their smartphones and on top of lower prices that’s a huge mover advantage for Samsung over Apple. Low blows can be very effective when the referee (Wall Street) doesn’t care how the fight is won.

  3. Wrong. Since at least Q4 2012, the iPhone has already had dominant marketshare in the U.S. Multiple sources have corroborated this. Iphone 5- 27 million, iPhone 4S- 17 million, Galaxy S3- 15 million.

  4. I don’t think that. How ever Apple will still have a strong and loyal share of the market. Apple by the way it is operating, they ways that have brought it success always paint themselves into a corner. Android took the Windows way for better or worse. It is impossible for only Apple to exist, the world will not allow that by its nature so totally dominance by Apple is impossible since they don’t license iOS. But a large and successful market share is not. I am a big Apple fan but I am not unrealistic. And I don’t think we would want Apple to take over the world. It would commoditise Apple itself. When everyone has it, it’s not that special any more.

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.