Longtime Apple analyst Gene Munster says that the Apple Vision Pro will likely take 5 years to go mainstream and will account for about 14% of Apple’s overall revenue by 2030.
Gene Munster for Deepwater Asset Management:
Vision Pro is a spatial computing headset. Spatial computing is the next logical computing interface, allowing users to interact with digital objects in the real world… Vision Pro is a breakthrough. The limited 30-minute demo I had with the product back in June made me see, for the first time, that the concept of bringing the digital and real worlds together is here.
As for timing, no need to buckle up for the next paradigm shift, because it will take five years to take off.
I believe Vision Pro will be the first spatial computing device that consumers will want to use… Vision Pro, at its core, is the first product to have spatial computing at breakthrough quality.
[For iPhone], it took five years for developers to build about 10 blockbuster apps. That means that only about two apps that matter come out ever year. Five years into the iPhone’s life, those 10 apps played an important role in driving iPhone sales to an inflection point…
For the Watch, it was Apple as the app developer that drove utility. Looking back over the first five years, there were 20 blockbuster features and apps on the Watch, of which 19 were developed by Apple…
Like the iPhone and Watch, I believe Vision Pro will take about five years to go mainstream. Once on the market early next year, I expect the iPhone developers to take notice and start the long road of building applications that drive functionality…
As for unit growth expectations, I expect modest growth of 20% a year through 2026, accelerating to 60% in 2028 once the price declines. By 2031 (its eighth year), I believe Apple could sell 75M Vision units, which compares to the Apple Watch reaching just around 45M units in its eighth year in the market. Seventy-five million units at $1,000 would generate around $75B in revenue. Assuming Apple grows its top line by an average of 5% per year through the end of the decade (which yields total revenue in 2030 of about $550B), the Vision segment would account for about 14% of total Apple sales in 2030.
MacDailyNews Take: It’ll take five years at the longest as Apple will be working hard to drive Vision Pro as quickly into the mainstream as possible.
See also: Apple’s Vision Pro is a Mac on your face – June 6, 2023
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Vision Pro will never be a mainstream device, too expensive, isolating the user from the world.
Being able to see the outside doesn’t mean your a part of it wearing this headset
No more isolating than sitting at your computer or looking at your phone.
In a work setting it will be useful to give nosy busybodies a visual cue to F-off, you’re working.
As far as I know this thing isn’t an alien face-hugger that you can’t take off whenver you want to.
My “why??” – why are you such an unimaingative trudberger? Go back to your cave, you disingenuous Google fell8tor.
Technology has increased indi isolation significantly in the last decade+. There appears to be no slow down…therefore, I’d guess the VP would satisfy the “need/desire” to more fully isolate. Not a healthy trajectory.
One ‘killer’ feature they could implement right now would be Continuity so they can seamlessly switch between their Mac, iPhone, iPad, and Vision Pro. Must have been too hard to have available for this launch. I’d imagine the Vision Pro would make it easy for you to send and retrieve media and files from any iOS or MacOS device in view.
Ummm No respectfully disagree! …. 2027 or 2029… !
Yoji – please don’t be a Yojerkoff
Mainstream device over $3,000? Fake reality layered over actual reality, no thanks…
Totally agree the price is way high, but if it gains cellular talk/data, replaces the Mac, iPad, and all input devices, and also takes the place of the iPhone as the link for the Apple Watch it may actually be worth it for some. Maybe Apple will consider it the greatest cannibalizer product they have ever released.
Replaces a loaded Pro Mac workstation creating animation, movies and 3D graphics?
Nope, I hear the same wishes from iPad owners wishing to replace their Macs. Not now, not ever…
Ok, I can see high end macs surviving the cannibalization. 🙂 The rest might just be easily virtualized in Vision Pro, possibly with the heavy processing done on a cloud PaaS server. Definitely an incentive for Apple to increase their Data Center investments.
The Apple Vision Pro will be mainstream in its first year, just about everything Apple has introduced in the last 25 years, OSX, Safari, iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, AirPods, Apple Pay, Apple Silicon, and the App Store, brick and mortar Apple retail stores has been panned at intro, ignore the naysayers just buy more Apple shares, you’re welcome…… long Apple.
I truly agree with you. I believe Apple’s Vision Pro will be the future computing.