Bucking talk of a super cycle, Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall claims that current iPhone shipments in China are 12% lower than the iPhone X series.
Analyst Rod Hall analyzes the latest China smartphone shipment data for the month of May, which was recently released by the state-run China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT).
Total handset units during the period clocked in at 23 million units, down 32% year-over-year. Hall points out that this appears to be the lowest shipment numbers for China since at least May 2014.
On the iPhone specifically, there were 3.8 million international smartphone shipments in China during May. That mostly consists of iPhone units. Hall says that that’s up from 2.8 million units in May 2020, but is generally in-line with trends from prior years.
The September-to-May aggregate unit count comes in at 38 million units, which compares favorably to the 31 million units for the same period in 2018 to 2019, and 2019 to 2020.
However, the analyst says that the 2021 numbers are still down 12% compared to the iPhone X redesign cycle. Hall takes this as evidence that the current iPhone 12 redesign cycle is “materially weaker” than the last one.
MacDailyNews Take: When Rod Hall is right about Apple, it will be the first time. Rod Hall is vying to be the worst Apple analyst of all time – a tough crown to take given the, uh… work of Laura Goldman, for one example.
Given his limited reasoning capabilities, we doubt that, if pressed, Rod Hall would be able to analyze his way out of a wet paper bag. — MacDailyNews, July 17, 2019
Rob, you big dummy:
Even if a particular data point were factual it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business… There is just an inordinate[ly] long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what’s going on. Apple CEO Tim Cook, January 23, 2013
Perhaps someone at Goldman Sachs thought it was funny to hire David Puddy as an “analyst” for the world’s most valuable firm? Seems like a negative branding move to us.
Don’t take Apple investment advice from anyone with “Goldman” on their business card. — MacDailyNews, April 29, 2021
As Peterson notes, “Rod Hall is the second analyst to draw conclusions from the May CAICT data. On Thursday, JP Morgan took the same numbers as an indication that Apple was gaining market share in the declining Chinese smartphone market compared to domestic vendors.”
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