Analyst claims Apple’s App Store growth is slowing dramatically

Tae Kim reports for Barron’s:

Apple stock will not rise due to slowing sales growth in its App Store business, according to Goldman Sachs.

Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall on Tuesday cautioned that Apple’s services revenue may disappoint later this year. He reiterated his Neutral rating for the company’s stock.

“App Store growth slowed markedly in May and June” after a spike earlier in the year, he wrote. “Deceleration implies downside risk for FQ4 [September quarter] Services growth.”

Hall cited Sensor Tower data which implied App Store sales in June grew 14% year-over-year versus 18% in May and 21% in April. He said if these weaker trends continue it would mean Apple will report Services growth below his September-quarter estimate.

MacDailyNews Take: We’ll wait for Apple’s data over third party data that implies nothing except that Goldman Sachs needs an Apple analyst who can actually analyze Apple, thanks.

Three months of Sensor Tower data is too short a data point to draw any meaningful conclusion, even if their estimates are rock solid perfect. What happened last April-May-June, for just one example question? How about the April-May-June period in 2017, 2016, 2015, etc.? Could this be mere seasonality rather than some apocalyptic “collapse” perhaps ginned up by an “analyst” looking to goose some summer brokerage fees?

Give his limited reasoning capabilities, we doubt that, if pressed, Rod Hall would be able to analyze his way out of a wet paper bag.

4 Comments

  1. Well, maybe so, but it’s not because ‘Apps are lame’ or some BS. It’s mostly because Apple has Sherlocked so many great apps. I have a bunch of apps I rely on and I’m not really looking for new ones. I’m sorted.

  2. Apple’s push to subscriptions are not a welcomed trend and will result in lower sales of apps and the devices that run those apps. Evertime I heard Tim Cook gloat about how many user’s credit cards they had on file, I cringed. My fears are being realized and the public will not be happy when they are getting $50 or even more removed automagically from their bank account every month. Worse is they will blame the device that is causing this loss of their ability to buy and do other things. Apple will receive the brunt of their ire, rightfully so. Folks are realizing this finally. That is the reason App Store sales are down. These monthly fees could easily Raquel the entire cost of your $1,000 iPhone in two years. Nobody will will be happy to see their iPhone become another type of telecom utility bill every month! This is the dumbest long term move Apple could possibly have conceived. Well, maybe not…

    Netflix reported earnings missed expectations by 12% today. See what I mean?

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