“Last week the FCC finally approved the iPhone and it should be on the market by June. I am putting a sell on Apple, the company that created the iPhone,” Laura Goldman writes for McClatchy-Tribune News Service.
MacDailyNews Note: According to the note below the article, “Laura Goldman worked on Wall Street for more than 20 years for such firms as Merrill Lynch and UBS Warburg. She now runs her own investment advisory, LSG Capital, from Tel Aviv, Israel.”
Goldman writes, “One of the oldest axioms on Wall Street is ‘Buy on rumor, sell on news.’ Steve Jobs’ Svengali-like performances and the take-your-breath-away beauty of the iPhone has deflected the hard questions until now. I would rather sell before the questions are asked or, even worse, answered.”
Goldman writes, “Steve Jobs at MacWorld this January dramatically announced, ‘From this day forward we’re going to be known as Apple Inc. We’ve dropped the ‘Computer’ from our name.’ With those two sentences, Jobs has effectively pronounced the desktop computer dead.”
MacDailyNews Take: Oh, he did, did he? Goldman offers nothing else to support her claim that by changing the company name to Apple Inc., Steve Jobs “effectively pronounced the desktop computer dead.” One would naturally wonder why Jobs continues to regularly add “Get a Mac” commercials that feature iMac product shots and why he continues running the large ad campaign in print, on TV, Radio and online if he thinks desktop computers are dead.
Goldman continues, “Now that the future of Apple is the iPhone, Apple’s valuation might start to trade in line with other mobile handset makers like Nokia, Motorola and Sony-Ericsson.”
MacDailyNews Take: That statement is based on the unproven assumption that Apple “has effectively pronounced the desktop computer dead.” Somebody should tell Goldman to look at Mac unit sales growth (3X the industry average) — and iPod+iTunes Store sales — before she issues “sell” recommendations based on severely flawed thinking.
Goldman continues, “How will Apple cope with the markdown in price that will eventually be required and the pressure to margins? I do not know if they will be able to do what they have done with the iPod. In that case, they added more features while keeping the price constant. In effect, later buyers get more iPod for the dollar. And as for the price, at $499 and $599, I wonder how many teens and young adults, who are the most avid buyers of the iPod, can afford the iPhone. When the Mac was introduced in 1984 to critical acclaim, the price was a steep $2495. When buyers experienced sticker shock, huge sales did not materialize.”
MacDailyNews Take: Goldman gets so much wrong, it’s amazing. The only part she gets right is where she admits she does not know. Apple’s iPhone target market goes beyond the “teens and young adults” market, so getting worried if they can afford the iPhone overlooks all those that can. And, who’s to say teens and young adults can’t or won’t buy an iPhone anyway? Goldman tries it; we won’t. Apple’s Mac has been successful and profitable for decades; “huge sales” depends on your definition of “huge.” Apple sells over 6 million Macs per year at current rates – that’s an average of over 685 Macs per hour – we consider that pretty huge sales. Furthermore, Goldman seems to have lifted her “idea” directly from The New York Times’ John Markoff who wrote on January 12, 2007, “Despite its high price of $2,495, the Macintosh initially sold briskly. But Mr. Jobs’s early predictions of huge sales failed to materialize.” Do you have any original points, however incorrect they may be, Laura?
Goldman continues, “What does the iPhone offer that other cell phones do not already offer, or will offer soon? The answer is not very much. The first-generation iPhone does not support 3G. The touch type keypad is beautiful to look at but hard to use for lengthy emails.”
MacDailyNews Take: More pure speculation. Who’d base stock decisions on such nonsense? Anyone who thinks that iPhone offers “not very much” over other cell phones has no business writing an article about anything to do with technology, much less purporting to give investment advice on tech companies. The first-gen iPhone is for the U.S. 3G support will come when it is needed. “Several Apple insiders said the phone could be upgraded to 3G with software if Apple later decides to enable that feature,” John Markoff reported in the same article referenced above for The New York Times on January 12, 2007. Someone who has actually tried the iPhone, Andy Ihnatko, for the Chicago Sun-Times, wrote, “I think the iPhone’s virtual keyboard is a huge improvement over the mechanical thumbpads found on the Treo and any other smart phones of its size.” Sorry, Laura, but we’ll have to go with real hands-on experience over random speculation tinged with what seems to be more than a hint of a biased agenda, thanks.
Goldman continues, “Since third-party software programs cannot run on the iPhone, it is impossible for professionals to read documents in the ubiquitous Microsoft Word format.”
MacDailyNews Take: iPhone runs OS X. Mac OS X can view Word documents in any number of ways – without Word itself. TextEdit for one example. Oh, by the way, on January 12, 2007 — you know you RTFA, Laura — Apple CEO Steve Jobs told the New York Times’ John Markoff regarding iPhone, “These are devices that need to work, and you can’t do that if you load any software on them. That doesn’t mean there’s not going to be software to buy that you can load on them coming from us. It doesn’t mean we have to write it all, but it means it has to be more of a controlled environment.” Let’s wait for iPhone to be released before we pronounce it “impossible” to read Word documents and put a “sell” on Apple, okay? Sheesh.
Goldman continues, “Apple’s stated goal of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 seems ambitious.”
MacDailyNews Take: Apple’s stated goal of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 seems conservative. We illustrate conjecture with conjecture, but at least ours is right.
Goldman continues, “The Teflon coating around Steve Jobs has kept the stock options scandal at bay. But the coating may be peeling. Apple stockholders need to know that there is a remote possibility of an Apple without Jobs. Initially, the market would react very badly to that news. While applauding Apple’s innovation with one hand, it is time to take profits with the other.”
Full article Think Before You Click™ here.
MacDailyNews Take: Goldman’s load of you-know-what wouldn’t be complete without mention of Steve Jobs’ risk in the so-called “stock options scandal.” Bravo, Laura, for capping your piece with the equivalent of flushing a toilet . We pity those taking investment “advice” from the likes of Laura Goldman.
Oh Goody! price comes down, I buy! buy! buy!
It’s 2012 now and I’ve come back to this 2007 article just to say eat it Goldman
Laura was not so wrong after all…indeed Jobs decreed the end of the desktop era with the change of Apple’s name from Apple Computer to Apple Inc. Also, Apple didn’t keep initial price, dropping it few moths after launch the iPhone.
The rest of her analysis, well, that’s where she joins the rest of the ANALysts that make a living saying bullshit.
On the other hand, MDN could not foresee, as Laura did, the post-PC device era coming…sometimes to blindly defending something does not pay a great service to it.
Yeah, I always base my investment decisions on “remote possibilities”.
Another ridiculous scenario from a so-called “analyst.” I’ll keep my AAPL shares, thank you very much.
Alas… another contender for the Enderle crown.
A stock broker who ignores that top stock brockers like to be seen with the best tech products money can buy.
All those bonuses that amount to millions of dollars/pounds will not see some diverted to the iphone, because teenagers will be buying them!
She probably has teenage children and has heard them talking about it.
Someone keep an eye on her to see when if ever she ends up with one in order to perform conference calls on the go, or filter her email via visual voicemail because she is waiting for an important message and cannot be bothered to listen through all the messages.
But she does make sense in her advice, how else can mere mortals like us buy shares at an affordable price? Chop the price for us I say so that we can buy & hold.
Visual voicemail not email.
Wait til June 11th, then she’ll eat her words
Whatever. I’m holding my stock.
Way to follow those Microsoft talking points Laura.
What cell phone stock are you holding? Your CV indicates that even you wouldn’t be stupid enough to be holding Microsoft shares.
MDN, save this article for future “nah, nah, nah, boo, boo” reference. You will be using it soon. Wall Street started its “axioms” before it knew anything about Apple.
This woman is absolutely clueless about what drives Apple.
She is in it for the short-term only.
I bet she has known many, many men.
O Please let her be right.
Please, Please, Please, Pleeeeessse.
Then the share price will drop.
Then I can buy more shares @ 50 + bucks.
I WISH!!!!
She was no doubt working in the mailroom at MS & UBS.
Why would she speculate on the death of the desktop computer? Really strange perspective. I wonder if opinions are different in Israel.
It’s just amazing what comes out fo the mouths of “learned” people. Goldman is lumping Apple, and its products, in the same class and category, as all other competitors.
The problem with that, is that Apple creates categories that other’s try desperately to emulate. There is nothing industry standard about Apple or its products. “Industry Standards” do not apply here, and Goldman, the “Learned” one should know that.
“She now runs her own investment advisory, LSG Capital, from Tel Aviv, Israel.””
More info here: http://lsgcapital.com/
FUD FUD FUD FUD!
h, don’t hold your breath. She’ll just smoothly predict the doom will come later, after people realize what a clunker they bought. Then later, then later still, then later because the new half-price iPhones lack a …
Eat her words? Admissions of error can be deadly in her business, unless it is an admission of too little enthusiasm for her point.
DLMeyer – the Voice of G.L.Horton’s Stage Page Pod-Cast
correction:
I meant ML, not MS
Is this a record form most MDN takes in an article?
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />
Yet another analyst who doesn’t know the full picture of Apple. Sometimes I wonder how much tech knowledge these analysts actually have. A lot of them seem to know nothing whatsoever, yet I wonder how they got to their position.
Apple is actually being EXTREMELY conservative when they said 10 million iPhone’s by end of 08″….this is not ambitious. An ambitious value would be ~35 million. Apple knows that they are entering a whole new market…so it would be utter stupid of them to disclose a very high target value.
Honestly, analysts like this should be fired for providing false info or in this case lack of proof or evidence, which ultimately does affect the stock of a company adversely, because not everyone has the tech knoledge to differentiate from analyst bulls**t from actual history/reality.
I can honestly claim then that Laura is an idiot and doesn’t know what she’s talking about. And is the only one advising to sell Apple stock as it continues to rise another dollar a share. Steve Jobs did not proclaim the desktop to be dead, nor did he say anything to the fact that Apple was getting out of the computer business. If so why would Apple be releasing new laptops and desktops. Total non-sense by someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about or writing about in this case. FUD!
“analysts like this should be fired for…”
coincidentally, she works for herself.
Meanwhile AAPL will close at $112.
Somebody mentioned “learned” people.
As opposed to “smart” or “intelligent” people
Who are ‘learned” people? Those who go straight from elementary school to high school to college to often professorships without ever having a clue that real education comes from living in the real world!
They get so stuck in the “learned” forest that they never see the trees. The only way they can distinguish themselves from the other “learned” is by re-inventing someone “learned” persons wheel, and for it to be different, it always ends up being triangular or square.
And I am saying this as a teacher! I know, I see them every day, regurgitating what other “learned ” say or write.
Her prognostications don’t seem to be putting a damper on AAPL stock price today. Her tagline should be: ” When Goldman speaks, nobody listens.”
iPhone, kelba.
MDN: “you know you RTFA, Laura”
ROTFLMFAO!
What’s an iPhone?
The game here is to lower the stock price in an effort to get into the stock.
My guess is she shorted the stock, banking of the hope it would get back down to sub $100 levels, closing it around $90.
Thus she shorted, and it did not go in that direction. She then planned to buy back into the stock at the bottom (around $90), and take it back on the rise.
None of what she planned for happened, so now she is attempting to manipulate the stock (illegal btw), in hopes of gaining something – anything for it.
I won’t even bother to talk to her points on Apple vs. Apple Computer, or the iPhone. The thoughts are so rediculous and Paul Thurrot-like, let us pray no one clicks on this article and gives it ANY web hits.
“Wolf! Wolf!”
I’m taking her advice and selling all my holdings…my LSG Capital holdings, that is.
“Apple’s stated goal of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 seems ambitious.”
i thought Jobs said the goal is to sell 10 million iPhones in 12 months.
Perhaps she was just as clueless working from Wall Street, but working from Tel Aviv she just doesn’t see how much Apple is “in the air” here. Windows is the de facto computer solution there, and Microsoft has a strong developmental presence. Many high-tech ventures dream of being the “next Microsoft”. Apple has only a modest presence.
Spending some time at the University of Haifa in 2005, I found that every computer in the student labs ran Windows, and most of the Macs on campus were in the hands of foreign students (like me). There is no Apple Store there, no Mac ads on television, and iPods are only slowly penetrating the local culture. So from her vantage point, she’s totally oblivious to the coming inflection point.
“While applauding Apple’s innovation with one hand, it is time to take profits with the other”
This is what is wrong with businesses in general these days. i.e. Microslop. Apple makes their money by innovating. Macroflop makes theirs through smoke and mirrors and blatant lies. Not to mention theft.
Wouldn’t it be nice if the stock market fluctuated based on real sales and profits, rather than on speculation by incompetent know-it-alls such as Laura?
Shame on you Mr. Jobs. You’ve repeatedly given us products that are fun, work and actually serve a purpose! How dare you!
Obviously, someone is paying her to write this nonsense to bring the price of Apple down. No one can be this stupid. I might have even agreed that Apple’s stock price will no doubt go down a bit in June (a temporary correction) once the iPhone is actually released, as profit takers do their thing. But not for the reasons given by this “analyst.” Apple giving up on Mac. Who would actually believe that…
Martin,
Watch Jobs’ keynote:
http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/mwsf07/
The goal is 10 million iPhone units by end of 2008.
“Laura Goldman worked on Wall Street for more than 20 years for such firms as Merrill Lynch and …..”
I see she learned her trade with Merrill Lynch. They were the ones who advised investors to sell at $13.
Actually it would be nice for some fool (s) to follow her advice and sell now, I might be able to buy another 100 shares if the price were to dip into the low 90’s. Come one, panic sell, panic, the sky is falling hurry sell… damm it didn’t work, the stock made a new high instead.
Let’s try again tomorrow… the sky is falling sell sell sell, please down to the low 90’s Apple will never sell another thing because teenagers MAY not be able to afford the iPhone, sell sell sell… dam probably another new high tomorrow this is not working… I’m going to have to buy less than 100 shares, that sucks… oh my GOD! sell sell sell, at least one possibly many people can’t afford round lots of apple, the stock if going to fall… sell sell sell…
At least until June and then she’ll be eating her words and my little joke… OK her words.
I’ll bet she swallows.
Goldman is a complete bimbo.
Comments like “known many, many men” and “bet she swallows” are simply crass and unnecessary. They do not illuminate anything but the sickness of your own mind.
Only a scoundrel of the worst sort would impugn Ms Goldman is such a manner.
If you can’t refute a person’s opinions in a clear, responsible and polite manner, you should keep your fingers off the keyboard and your mouse clicks away from the Feedback button. Do not resort to gutter-sniping.
Oh you people are just unnecessarily hard on some of these wanna-be wall street gurus.
In this case I think that Goldman is just suffering from a bad case of naivete. Much of her tone is simply copy-catting what’s always been said about Apple, and the comment about Apple being dead really does prove she’s just way out of the Apple Inc. loop. Not even nay-sayers of Apple say that Macs are dead anymore. And to hear her talk it sounds like Apple is not only dumping the Mac, but is also going to become a full time cell phone maker… Naawww, it just reeks of not really knowing anything real – only what she’s been hearing.
Oh well – NEXT.
When the Mac was introduced in 1984 to critical acclaim, the price was a steep $2495.
The Mac was a bargain. If the author knew Apple she’d know about the earlier Lisa at $9,995 US ($20,400 in 2007 dollars). (Credit to Wikipedia for the amounts)
And as for the price, at $499 and $599, I wonder how many teens and young adults, who are the most avid buyers of the iPod, can afford the iPhone.
In the modern world of must-have’s, the iPhone will sell.
As for targeted buyers, notice that you don’t see many mall rats carrying 30″ Cinema displays out of the Apple Stores. I’d have to guess the iPhone is aimed above the boppers, towards the college and professional markets. Which is very smart with the iPod-toting Gen Y now getting into college.
Perhaps there’s room here for an iPhone nano…..
….saw a large gathering of analysts today …revolving around each were little systems of stars and planets as each analyst sat primping, preening and powdered all over with pride and prejudice ….lots of p’s on the upper tier. On a much lower tier were the Enderles, the Dvoraks, the Thurrotts …there were flies in the lower tier. As I walked by I heard one of them say …”I’m putting a sell on Apple …I am Analyst ..the great and the powerful. No one will come to profit but by me. ” I think it was Laura …really.
Dang. Now I have to sell. Those shares have sentimental value, too. I’ve had them for almost ten years. They’re like part of the family.
calling a sell at a companies all time high is such a risky call
all stocks ever do is go up
really risky call here
LISTEN IDIOT ( this is for the article not my fellow MDN people)
AAPL IS GOING MUCH MUCH HIGHER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
even if it goes down for the next month straight
IT IS CALLED ACELERATED REV. GROWTH
THE SUPER RICH can’t buy AAPL all at once because then the price would already be 220 a share
I love it when a plan come together.
ACCELERATED mb2010
Goldman is mind-blowing in her stupidity. Usually, I think MDN’s Takes on articles like these are overly analytical and picky, but this time, they’re right on.
I can’t believe anyone would be so stupid as to state that Apple is abandoning the desktop market, when the company is in the midst of one of the biggest (and most successful) Mac advertising campaigns in the last 10 years. And that’s not even mentioning Leopard.
All the effort to move from powerpc to intel, and this chippie says apple will abandon the pc platform. Now that is chutzpah.
Martin said:
> i thought Jobs said the goal is to sell 10 million iPhones in 12 months.
Then Wes tells Martin to:
> Watch Jobs’ keynote… The goal is 10 million iPhone units by end of 2008.
Actually, Martin is correct. If you actually watched Jobs’s keynote (the last 2 minutes), he says
“This is exactly what we are going to try to do in 2008, our first full year on the market, is grab 1% market share… 10 million units in 2008 and go from there.”
“In 2008” does not mean “by the end of 2008.” It’s a 12-month period, as Martin says.
A sell recommendation at this point isn’t unreasonable based on “buy the rumor sell the fact” (defining fact and rumor are, of course, subjective).
But the rest was mind-blowingly wrong. The mac business is not only growing, so have been its margins.
So… I see this call as part of the “wall of worry” that a stock climbs… up. Not that it isn’t due for a correction.
The other thing about stocks… they don’t stop going up when the get “fairly” valued. Stocks ALWAYS overshoot in both directions. With Apple’s business and financial momentum, absent some really unexpected setback, Apple’s valuation will grow well past reason. And THEN a top will happen. And pity the poor newbies at Apple who get their options priced at that point.
Just because a stock is overvalued (I don’t think Apple is quite yet) doesn’t mean it can’t get more overvalued. Frankly, I think we’ve reached the point where the sellers and the shorts have had their heads handed to them, and have given up. So we’re headed to overvaluation. That means take the REAL earnings growth (which has been damned impressive), multiply it up by expected growth rate, and then pile overenthusiasm on top of THAT. And if I could tell you what the price will be, I’d be living on my own island right now…
Nice take, MDN.
I love articles like this, because I get to search them for the risk that is there for my overwhelmingly lopsided AAPL investment — I bet the farm. But the author’s reasoning is so absurd and she has no real information pointing out significant risk. She is a fool.
Anyone who claims that Apple’s dropping of the name “Computer” from the official corporate name indicates that Apple is no longer a computer company is too stupid for words. The exact opposite is true. With the iPhone – and soon the coming wPods, I’m sure – Apple has moved to replace its embedded operating systems with its flagship computer operating system, OS X. It can do so, because Moore’s Law has worked its magic – low power embedded processors are now powerful enough to run a large computer operating system and provide the necessary memory at reasonable cost and power drain. This also provides access to the various software stacks available to such a powerful operating system. And Apple provides with OS X its nonpareil Cocoa frameworks and GUI. The competition is left with, at best, a cargo cult response, as they try to fool consumers – and analysts. They apparently fooled Ms. Goldman. Dropping the name “Computer” is for marketing purposes. The technology has matured – through Moore’s Law – so that computers are now subsuming the embedded device market. Apple is the first company to get there.
Analyze that, Ms. Laura.
” … Jobs has effectively pronounced the desktop computer dead. …”
And when did that happen? Either proof it or shut up. Please.
Mor*n, Idi*t, … No clue, no brain, but shouting loudest, huh?
@ Another Irish Dude:
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />
When you wish that this is true, then you better get started and take a class to learn Vista. Enjoy…
Like anyone in Israel has a clue about what’s going on. “Gee, let’s attack Lebanon. That should be easy.” Better they just abandon the land they stole from the Palestinians.
The LSG Capital link doesn’t work. Maybe it’s already started.
LSG Capital is run from a grubby 2-room apartment in Tel Aviv by the same Laura Goldman who was thrown out of the US for repeated false allegations against prominent guys in the investment community – finally she went too far against Thomas H Lee and the FBI recorded all her sordid phone calls telling him how she was going to take him for a fortune.
Investment Advice? Don’t make me laugh. She worked Wall Street for 20 years alright, until she ran out of hot dogs.
Quote: “Goldman was successfully charged with blackmail and false allegation against Thomas H Lee and was subsequently barred from the US. She’d made other attempts to extort money under threat of false allegation against many others including Peter Kaplan and the entire management team at Paine Webber. All fact, all public record. Now she runs “LSG Capital” which is basically just her and run from her two-bit apartment in Tel Aviv from where she recently issued a sell call on Apple at the same time as it was making repeated record highs. This disgraced and deranged individual should not be given a voice on sites such as these.”
More details at:
PercyWalker.com: Percy Referees a Defamation Brawl
Check out this readers comment as a response to her initial article:
Laura Goldman had a series of jobs on Wall Street but was thrown out of the US after a failed blackmail attempt against Thomas H Lee (the last in a long line of similar cases she brought) and she now runs LSG Capital from a seedy 2-room apartment in Tel Aviv. “Insightful”?? Yeah, right!
Comment by Andrew Latterman from Baltimore — June 25, 2007 @ 3:51 am
Enough said!