Investors are misplacing threats to the U.S. stock market

A general, Qassem Soleimani, who was the head of Iran’s Quds Force, was killed by a U.S. drone in Baghdad, Iraq on Friday.

Nigam Arora for MarketWatch:

The death of Gen. Qassem Soleimani was viewed by some as an assassination, owing to his power and influence in Iran and among proxy militias in the Middle East… You may be surprised to hear that Soleimani’s death may not be as significant for stock market investors as it seems…

The economy has changed. It is less reliant on oil. Yes, if the price of oil rises, it will negatively affect certain sectors such as airlines as well as retailers that cater to lower-income consumers. The U.S. became the world’s largest oil producer in mid-2018, while Iran’s energy industry has been hurt by crippling sanctions.

Compare the market cap of Apple to the oil sector. You will be surprised how big Apple has become and how small the oil sector has become.

Historically, the impact of such incidents has been short-lived…

MacDailyNews Take: As we wrote earlier this morning, “Some short-term volatility is, of course, to be expected,” but keep in mind that:

People tend to fear the worst. It almost never happens.MacDailyNews, May 14, 2019

15 Comments

  1. Looking to those who profit from, and write about, a market booming from Fed/Treasury helicopter money and military-industrial-complex arms sales will only lead to bad conclusions. There isn’t a single U.S. market writer that knows a whit about what is going on in the mind of Iran’s leaders, and how their (inevitable) retaliation(s) will impact U.S. markets and companies. Nor are any of them analyzing what a full blown Middle East war will do to the world economy.

    Get back to writing about Apple products and services, and away from the pathetic market and geopolitical “analysis” and commentary.

      1. @applecynic I’ve been around here since MDN began, and working with and supporting Apple computers since the Apple ][e, over 40 years ago, probably before you were born.

        And no, prevailing attitude about any event is not whether its good for Apple or not. I judge war on other basis than being good for Apple, or profiting market investors.

    1. I concur. The “analysis” of the potential stock market impacts of the recent drone assassination is ridiculously naive and The conclusions are misguided. The potential consequences – near term and long term, direct and indirect – are too vast to be accurately summarized in such a manner.

      I do not like the power of the POTUS to order drone assassinations. I didn’t like it under Bush. I didn’t like it under Obama, and I really don’t like that power in the hands of an impulsive, puerile personality like Trump. This power reeks of despotism.

      Congress has transferred too much power to the POTUS over the years with legislation like the Patriot Act. It is time to clean things up and get back to rational government (see Federalist Papers).

      Our Founding Fathers expected the American people to choose the best people to serve in the federal government. We have failed in our responsibilities, and the people who have been elected have failed in theirs. The so-called “swamp” has fermented into a toxic cesspool under Trump. It is time for a return to rationale government and this will only happen by the will of the people committed to the good of the Union over self-interest and partisan rhetoric.

      1. Thank you King for not writing these things when my man was in office. I know the impulsive & puerile Don has a personality that’s easy to associate recent acts with the lack of self-control. My man was so suave and (seemingly) composed, but do you know there were more killings of that kind (talkin about the Iranian General kind) in his prez? Yes, that’s right–he’s a record holder! Some have called Barack’s presidency the, “Lethal Presidency?” Funny thing about it, with all the “covert” killings, some list the number at #500, no one really thinks of him as a war monger, savage or out of control. Besides winning the Prize, I think a lot of it had to do with the “Red Line” ultimatum that he couldn’t get himself to act upon. Also, his FBI, CIA and State Dept folks were doing some really “cool” stuff, but they did it on the down-low…keeping the “swamp,” as you say, in the back yard to most eyes.

        The key here is image and perception. Except at home, Barack was always cool and restrained. Don, on the other hand, looks dumb and goes whacky-talk A LOT…so everything really seems out of control and it’s easy to keep the anti-fervor high and to position him as, “the worst.” (I’d kick him out, for his hair only and long ago because of his low-life pu*sy antics.)

        Anyways, ‘preciate you at least puttin forth the image that Don’s-the-Swamp…or at least emphasizing the proceeding times were rational and without self interest and partisan rhetoric. That’s key. Givin that kind of short-line personal view, as emphasis, is always impactful, because most aren’t not paying attention anyways and it keeps people in the crappy moment. Using; “Founding Fathers”….powerful! Let’s go back to the time when things were good…love it! “Toxic cesspool”…you go girl!

        We can talk about George later. It’ll be a short conversation because the space between his ears was, well a, small.

        1. I said that I did not like drone assassinations under Bush, Obama, or Trump. Don’t try to twist my words.

          And I said that it was time to get back to rational government. I did not point to Obama or Bush – you just made an assumption. Regardless of the Administration, Congress has been too screwed up to support a rational government for well over two decades. When Congress cannot even fulfill its basic function of passing a budget, then you know things are screwed up.

          Bush surrounded himself with yes people and Darth Cheney. That crowd pursued two wars. There was some justification for going into Afghanistan, but anyone with any historical knowledge knows that Afghanistan is a giant bag of hurt. Just ask what remains of the USSR. Going into Iraq was inexcusably stupid. The Bush Administration twisted itself into knots attempting to justify that war.

          Obama inherited two long term wars and Guantanamo and a crashing economy along with a GOP that publicly announced that their mission was to undermine Obama.

          1. The D’s undermining of Trump started BEFORE he ever inhabited the office and what he’s experienced throughout his term makes Obama’s opposition look what it was…vigorous, but politically commonplace.

            Before: FISA courts “investigation” based on incorrect assumptions and erroneous information.

            Early: “Whistleblower’s” lawyer stated 12 days into his term that he was pursuing a coup” to remove Trump…impeachment the goal.

            Now & following: Maxine Waters and others rallied with “Impeach, Impeach…” years before the current claims were made by the House. Let’s not forget a two year Special Investigation settled on no crimes. And….

            I know you are one mentally affected by Trump’s presidency, but I point out these things to make foolish your last statement about Obama. It clearly shows your irrational bias. Bias is normal, irrationality isn’t. Btw, you don’t have to like the guy to admit it.

            1. I am not irrational, although it apparently comforts you to say so. Honestly, how can you dispute one single word of that final paragraph about Obama? Every word is demonstrably true.

              Trump has been playing the victim card and hiding behind lawsuits and high-priced lawyers for a long time, probably since before you were born. All I hear from Trump the Prez is that everything is unfair. If he is so great, then let him man up and face everything out in the open rather than illegally claiming “absolute immunity” from being investigated.

              Meanwhile, Trump promises “total transparency” while hiding and obstructing almost everything. Trump says that he will release his tax returns – but we haven’t seen them after several years. Trump says that he wants to testify – but somehow that dwindles to answering a small set of questions, mostly with “I do not recall.” That is from the “highly stable genius” who claims to have a great memory. Trump also professes to “know many words” – but he seems to use only hoax, scam, witch hunt, sad, unfair, and very.

  2. This article is stridently ignorant of the ways that retaliation by a cornered rat could affect us all. Oil is only half the story. If you pretend that your infrastructure is hardened, your security services infallible —- you are seriously deluded. Self proclaimed stable genius just got provoked into a stupid move.

    China is the primary customer of Iranian oil. Any escalation with Iran could not only stall trade, it could pull China to Iran’s defense. Not to mention North Korea, whose nuclear weapons are believed to have the ability to hit the continental USA, or Russia, which has been spending the last 20 years plotting ways to undermine US power. What’s the end game, cold or hot war with Iran’s global allies???? Are you prepared? If Israel is vaporized tomorrow, will the USA go all in too? How exactly could the USA defend itself against a multi-front war of terrorism, cyber war, trade war, oil embargo, and possibly hot war in several regions? Could America’s youth pull themselves away from Facebook long enough to notice the downfall?

    Unlike WW2, the USA doesn’t have political cooperation and the luxury of a year to retool Detroit to produce war winning defenses and pragmatic strategies. International madmen with nukes can take out millions of people at the push of a button or a terrorist event today, and Tweety In Chief is the least capable person possible to formulate wise strategies for defense. What would Donny do if the water supplies for a few major cities were contaminated with toxic chemicals? He would drink Aquafina on his golf course and attempt to get Aquafina to pay him for an endorsement deal, that’s what.

    The entire western hemisphere is vulnerable but Lyin’ Don only speaks about personal missions like defeating Hildebeast via tweets. That is his only area of concern—his pocketbook and the bobble head adoration at pep rallies.

    If in a fit of America First Fire and Fury Lyin’ Don escalates, what would prevent the weaker power from using desperate measures? Syria was happy to sacrifice half its population to push the USA out of the Middle East. Puppet Donnie has now left only isolated bases there – too many to relieve the local disgruntlement, too few to accomplish anything. Iran would likely be happy to sacrifice anything to eliminate the US interests (corporate, military, and Netanyahu flavors). Except as the US should have learned in the 1970’s, Iran would choose more painful measures. In the past, hostages plus oil embargo plus terrorism caused a decade long global malaise. Today simultaneously doing all that and more is even easier. Like taking down power grids, the Internet, or other fragile infrastructure. Or whatever good buddy Putin’s planned to help Iran take the USA down a notch. Now that America First is really America Alone, what exactly would America’s former allies be able to do in the wake of a worldwide surge in terrorism? Suspend Brexit talks and donate a few more quid to NATO?

    So why is the madman in the white house stirring up hornets nests in the middle east? If the USA doesn’t need the oil, then WALK AWAY. Shooting missiles at Iran is the best way to recruit the next generation of jihadists with dirty bombs. The economy would be the least of the concerns if Lyin’ Don doesn’t reign his oversized fragile ego in. Stupid move!!!!!!

    1. If you used your sophomoric and juvenile descriptors one more time, for the person you’re unhappy with, I would have read your entire screed.

      I’m all for taking a writer seriously.

  3. The market was down on Friday and can just as easily be up on Monday. Making and losing money on a daily basis is just a part of being in the stock market, no matter what the news.

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