Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple’s true iPhone ‘supercycle’ coming in 2018

“KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo is today out with a new investor note in which he further analyzes the iPhone X supply chain and production struggles,” Chance Miller reports for 9to5Mac. “Kuo also looks ahead to 2018, noting of when Apple will hit full production of the iPhone X as well as what’s in store for the 2018 iPhone.”

“Kuo says the ‘true super cycle’ for the iPhone won’t actually take place until 2018,” Miller reports. “While many analysts have predicted that the launch of the iPhone X will prompt a super cycle for the end of 2017, the KGI Securities analyst says supply shortages will push that increased upgrade cycle into next year.”

“Once the holiday rush is over, he predicts a sharp quarter-on-quarter decline for iPhone 8 sales due to cannibalization from iPhone X,” Miller reports. “In the meantime, iPhone 8 Plus sales have been “better than expected” thus far.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: The supercycle is slightly delayed, but it’ll get here soon enough!

1 in 3 iPhone users to upgrade to a new iPhone in 2018 – August 23, 2017
Apple is prepping for a huge iPhone product cycle – August 15, 2017
BlueFin: Apple’s ‘iPhone X’ sees massive manufacturing surge; build plans at record levels – August 14, 2017
This Apple iPhone ‘supercycle’ could have staying power: Apple may enjoy two consecutive successful iPhone cycles – August 8, 2017
UBS sees massive pent-up demand for Apple’s next-gen iPhones – July 25, 2017
Data suggests millions upon million of iPhone users ready to fuel iPhone ‘supercycle’ later this year – April 21, 2017
More evidence for a looming iPhone ‘supercycle’ – April 10, 2017
Citi ups Apple price target to $160 on impending iPhone supercycle – March 6, 2017
Analyst: Here comes Apple’s iPhone ‘supercycle’ – February 21, 2017
Apple seen riding iPhone 8 ‘supercycle’ next year – October 14, 2016


  1. what I always wanted to know from analysts is…

    … do they ‘swirl’ the tea leaves or do they let them ‘settle naturally’ before they read? Because too often their predictions are completely off track (so they must be doing something wrong ) ….

    seriously, as an aapl investor all I know is that my investments are (relatively) safe. . The PE isn’t very high and I like some of the new products : Watch, ARKit, the Phones etc and Apple is making some moves to correct issues like SIRI, moving SIRI from Cue to Federighi etc. There are still many issues like the Mac line (you know Macs that make TWICE as much money as Watch, AirPods, iPods, Beats, Apple TV, accessories COMBINED), which they don’t bother to MARKET, doesn’t even get cheap web ads.

    Still all in all the new Apple stuff like Watch are exciting. They will work out the supply chain. So I think the stocks OK.

      1. it does

        perhaps I wasn’t clear, there had been a lot of negativity about Apple’s production roadblocks etc, I was talking that aapl (even if it gets hit when the quarter numbers come out) is relatively safe in the long term. I dislike Apple;s PE being lower than it’s peers (i.e valued lower by investors) but in ‘difficult’ quarters where due to production issues Apple might fail to meet some analysts projections, the stock has less distance to fall due to its low PE vs the company’s potential, cash reserves etc (long term investors would buy the stock if it falls too simply due those intrinsic positives plus stuff like the generational advantages of the new chips — bionic, neural – and the Watch etc I mentioned. )

        I do believe there’s waaaaay more Apple leadership can do more for products like the Mac, TV etc , both for consumers and aapl investors.

  2. Vroom-vroom… There’s no guarantee of a supercycle but I suppose I can hope. Apple will likely be the only major tech stock to have no share gains while the FANG stocks rocket to Mars. It’s likely even Microsoft will outperform Apple over the next six months. It’s as Tim Cook always says, “There are more important things to Apple than just making money.” Greedy big investors really love to hear things like that being said by a CEO… NOT!

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