Apple Watch set to dominate smartwatch market for years

“The Apple Watch’s share of the smartwatch market could hit 68 percent by the end of the year,” Paul Lamkin writes for Forbes. “That’s according to a new report from market intelligence firm Tractica.”

“The analyst forecasts that, of 24.4 million smartwatch shipments in 2015, Apple Watch numbers will be around the 16.7 million mark,” Lamkin writes. “The report has Samsung’s Tizen in second place for 2015, with around a 12 percent share… Forecasts for sales of the Cupertino smartwatch for the first year have varied wildly; from as low as 9 million, all the way up to 30 million.”

“Back to Tractica’s report and it suggests smartwatch shipments will hit figures almost 95 million by 2020 – with Apple holding a share of 53 percent, so over 50 million shipments,” Lamkin writes. “The report suggests that, by 2020, Android Wear and Android will have a combined share of around 20 percent… This combined total could see as many as 19 million Google powered smartwatches on people’s wrists.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: It depends on how much the knock off peddlers can steal from Apple Watch and what they can get away with, we suppose. Obviously, there’s a market for Apple product knockoffs as the only (barely) profitable Android peddler is Samsung.

Also: 95 million total smartwatch shipments by 2020 seems low to us.

Tractica’s projections:
Tractica: Smartwatch market share 2013-2020

Apple Watch owners vastly prefer Apple Watch to iPhone for Apple Pay – August 18, 2015
Apple Watch will make up 40% of premium wristwatch sales by 2020 – report – August 14, 2015
Apple Watch takes 88% of total smartwatch revenue – August 14, 2015
Apple Watch dominates smartwatches with 75% market share – July 28, 2015
Juniper Research: Apple is world’s #1 smartwatch maker – July 23, 2015
Canalys: Apple ships 4.2 million Apple Watches in Q2 to become world’s top wearables vendor – July 21, 2015
Apple Watch satisfaction is unprecedented at 97%; beats original iPhone and iPad – July 20, 2015
Apple mines big profits from Apple Watch bands – June 18, 2015
Apple Watch is Apple’s most successful product debut ever – June 1, 2015
Did Apple underestimate the most popular Apple Watch Sport color? – April 14, 2015
Apple Watch, the world’s first real smart watch, will be a massive hit – September 9, 2014


  1. no one other than Apple has an integrated ecosystem capable of weaving wearables with mobile / static computing solutions. These bar graphs are fiction. If they dared speculate forward no further than 12 months I’d be less dubious.

  2. Remember those charts that showed how Windows phone was going to be the dominant mobile platform by now? They were created by people who reckoned they could predict the future.

    When a technology is new, it’s impossible to make reliable projections about how well it will sell in the future. However there is one prediction that I would make. When it comes to smart watches, Apple will make more profit from them than anybody else and most other players will either lose money or only make marginal profits.

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