Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster predicts sales of 10 million Apple Watches in calendar 2015

“Analyst Gene Munster currently forecasts sales of 10 million Apple Watches in calendar 2015 with an average selling price of $500,” Neil Hughes reports for AppleInsider. “In his latest note to investors, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider, he advised that market watchers share his ‘conservative expectations’ for first-year sales.

“If Munster’s predictions of 10 million units sold at an average price of $500 prove accurate, the analyst believes the fledgling product category would add about 3 percent to the company’s calendar year 2015 revenue,” Hughes reports. “‘We believe that to date, there have been less than 3 million smartwatches sold in total, thus the Apple Watch will represent a significant change in the smartwatch industry,’ he said.”

“Apple has announced that its Watch will have a starting price of $349 when it launches in early 2015,” Hughes reports. “It’s expected that other models could be priced considerably higher, particularly the Apple Watch Edition model, which features an 18-karat yellow [or rose] gold case.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Just getting this one on the record for future reference.

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  1. What a ridiculous prediction. How in the world can he possibly predict numbers of units sold, let alone average sales price, when Apple hasn’t even announced pricing for all of the models? Just stupid.

    And FWIW, I think Apple will sell FAR more than 10 M Watches in 2015, unless it simply can’t build any more than that, which is highly unlikely.

    1. Love it. You criticize him for saying howmany will sell without any information. I agree. But then you do the same prediction with probably even less information than he has. See the irony here?

  2. How to ballpark the Watch sales. First get these numbers:

    1. Total number of compatible iPhones
    2. Total number of interested buyers
    3. and their maximum budget

    Then start chopping the max buyers.

  3. Lowball estimate. I don’t believe that less that 1% of the eligible 350,000,000 iPhone owners would buy the watch accessory. The iPhone comes with headphones and a clock, but that does not stop people from dropping $350 on Beats headphones, and the watch is a much more compelling purchase.

    1. Isn’t that amazing? An additional five billions dollars in revenue (10 million units @ $500 each) would only represent about 3% of Apple’s annual revenue. It was not so long ago when that would have exceeded Apple’s annual revenue…

      Apple has gotten so large that it overshadows what most other companies would consider to be a wildly successful and lucrative product. Even Apple’s “venerable” iPod, which most people seem to discount nowadays as a declining product line, is still a major moneymaker.

  4. I was at the Verizon store today purchasing the new iPhones and the rep (20 something) mentioned she has the style of the Apple Watch already selected. My mother made the exact same comment two weeks ago. The rep then told me the Apple Watch will be her number one Christmas wish. I told her production would probably start in January and it would begin selling in February. She said the timeframe didn’t matter and emphatically repeated the watch will still be her number one Christmas wish. My mom, who doesn’t currently wear a watch, and this rep HUNGER for this creation. The Apple Watch is not just a smart watch it is a fashion statement. The 10 million number is wayyyyy too low.

  5. Credit where credit is due. In this case Gene Munster said he didn’t pretend that it was anything other than a guess. Many analysts dream up numbers and then try to present them as facts.

    I happen to believe that he is guessing far too low. I think he paid too much attention to the disappointing sales of existing smart watches and simply tripled that number and rounded it up. I think that Apple Watch will prove to be a category quite unlike existing smart watches and the sales will be in a different league.

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