“Buried within the recent quarterly report from AT&T is a subtle hint at what could haunt Apple going forward,” Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and CEO of Stock Traders Daily, scribbles for MarketWatch.
“Not more than a couple short months ago I recommended to investors that they sell Apple. That call was early, I did not anticipate the euphoria that overwhelmed the stock for the past couple of months, but the premise for my recommendation has not changed and the subtle hints embedded in earnings report help to reveal the pressures I see at Apple going forward,” Kee blathers. “First, although I recommended that investors sell Apple too early, no one lost any money, but if you sold you did miss the euphoric spike. The question on everyone’s mind now is if that euphoria was warranted. In my opinion it was not, but investors who were looking for a quick buck on the tail end of that market rally couldn’t find a better place to put their money. Yes, Apple also has excellent products, a good track record, and every money manager wants its sizzle in his portfolio, at least they did until recently.”
MacDailyNews Take: Translation: I totally blew it, but listen to me anyway.
Kee continues, “Underlying problems at Apple is a competitive environment that has caught up to it… Without a doubt, Apple led the way, and they deserve the reward of being first to market with these innovations, but technology catches up fast, and unless Apple continues to innovate at the same pace it did before, it will not stand out from the crowd on a technological basis for long. In fact, my argument is that competing technologies are in some ways already surpassing where Apple is today.”
MacDailyNews Take: Translation: I have no clue whatsoever, but listen to me anyway.
Kee continues, “Obviously, carriers should offer Apple’s products to their customers, but if Apples products no longer directly influence new subscriber growth like they did before, as is the case with AT&T now, eventually the margins come back into focus.”
MacDailyNews Take: Focus on this, Mr. Kee: 78% of all smartphones sold by AT&T last quarter were Apple iPhones and — newsflash! — the U.S. smartphone market isn’t the global smartphone market, either.
Kee continues, “Already today when you walk into a wireless carrier the Apple products are tucked away far in the corner. Competing products are front and center, with large banners, for all customers to see. These carriers are promoting upgrades to competing products because the margins are much better than with Apple products.”
MacDailyNews Take: Okay, we’ll all remember that retailers will try to sell us their most-profitable items, even over higher quality items that are not not only proven to satisfy their customers more, but are also proven to reduce churn to historic lows. Thanks for the insight. Despite “large banners,” 8 out of 10 of AT&T Mobility’s customers bought Apple iPhones anyway, regardless of the derviative crap that spiff-hungry salesclerks first tried to shackle them into. Nobody puts Baby in a corner.
Kee continues, “The competition has caught up, maybe even surpassed, and unless Apple takes definitive action to excel ahead of the curve again I do not believe that the company will continue to be what we have known it to be for years… Is AAPL innovative enough now to warrant an investment at these levels? What happens if the market does not embrace one of their new products in the future? It is only a matter of time in my opinion, and I believe that short positions from near $600 will return more than what we missed by selling too early a couple short months ago.”
Read piece here.
MacDailyNews Take: This morning, Apple (AAPL) is currently up $55.97, or 10%, to $616.25 and Mr. Kee’s article has been iCal’ed for future reference.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “ChrissyOne” for the heads up.]
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Apple heads for all-time largest single-day boost to S&P 500 – April 25, 2012
Apple earnings crush analysts’ estimates yet again – April 24, 2012
MacDailyNews presents live notes from Apple’s Q212 Conference Call – April 24, 2012
Apple bulldozes Street with blowout $39.2 billion revenue; shares rocket in after-hours trading – April 24, 2012
Kee did indeed heed Tim’s advice: “go invent your own stuff”. And he’s still at it!
What a moron!
The guy is really full of himself. And he is wrong.
All these what ifs. They all take as if the competition are infallible and make no mistakes and are just waiting for Apple to slip up and then destroy them in a month. Even if Apple had a slip up of some sort, they have enough money and other products that they could stay massively profitable for a good number of years regardless. They’re not one of these companies that’s going to go through a couple of not so good quarters and then be on the edge like say RIM.
The iPod (11 years later) still commands 70% marketshare.
His whole premise screams total lack of understanding about Apple. Every few years now Apple enters whole new markets, takes the market by storm, profits the heck out of it, and doubles its stock price I expect Apple to enter a new market this year or next, and for the stock to double along with that.
Who woulda thunk?
Don’t know if it’s been mention here, but one of the stupidest opinions and reader comments I’ve ever read about Apple was linked to by Gruber at DF and it’s here – http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=205111 – I can’t believe the sheer stupidity of some people
I should have added that the obvious answer to his stupid question is “the rest of the world”. You have to scroll way down to read the comments of his followers.
“Disclosure: Lightly short and debating whether to remain so through the bell.”
No doubt he feels like he got his intestines yanked out today.
“…Apple products are tucked away far in the corner.”
I walked by AT&T yesterday and the iPhone display was still in the front of the store. Kee must be in hiding for his asinine drivel.
MDN, can you rip JR. One?
Hahaha
This is but an updated version of the “killer” theme so beloved by analysts up to recently…when even they realized how futile it was to ascribe “killer” status to mediocre products.
The analysts/hacks just found another way of bullshitting their way through the day.
There are too many bullshit artists in our midst that like vampires, do not reflect experience, reason, fact, or due diligence; and remain enemies of effective decision.
This guy makes the most fundamental mistake continually made by investment analysts and Apple’s competitors. This error is often referred to by more perceptive observers as “skating to where the puck was.” I jumped on AAPL over a decade ago for a number of reasons, but the most important was the flow of new product concepts and the brain-dead competitors. That pattern is unchanged. To call the competition’s desperate copying “catching up” is just not paying attention. As long as Apple keeps inventing and innovating, the company will transcend.
“Underlying problems at Apple is a competitive environment that has caught up to it… Without a doubt, Apple led the way, and they deserve the reward of being first to market with these innovations, but technology catches up fast, and unless Apple continues to innovate at the same pace it did before, it will not stand out from the crowd on a technological basis for long. In fact, my argument is that competing technologies are in some ways already surpassing where Apple is today.”
A competitive environment that has caught up to it? A bunch of copycats who have poorly emulated Apple’s products, more like. And please name one competitor who is innovating, not copying? Crickets!
“but investors who were looking for a quick buck on the tail end of that market rally couldn’t find a better place to put their money.”
Dickhead!
What an utter moronic idiotic buffoon!
Keep uttering the same mantra. Eventually one day you will be right if you live long enough.
“Already today when you walk into a wireless carrier the Apple products are tucked away far in the corner. Competing products are front and center, with large banners, for all customers to see. These carriers are promoting upgrades to competing products because the margins are much better than with Apple products.”
Or, perhaps it’s like many other retail industries where companies PAY (in either $, advertising, or other subsidies) to have their products displayed prominently.
Mr. Kee is a perfect example of how ego trumps results on Wall Steeet. This guys words aren’t worth the pixels that displayed them. He’s a hack. The 12-month outlook is $850-1100. There may be some short short impact. But the smart money is on continued 50%+ growth on AAPL. BTW, buy AAPL and it may pay for your next iPhone and iPad AND Mac upgrades!
Kee needs to put salt on his foot before he shoves it in his big STUPID MOUTH!!!!!!
Clueless and out of touch with reality.
You hear this same crap every time Apple is getting close to announcing a new iPhone. “The competition as almost caught up!” They haven’t almost caught up but that crap keeps getting repeated. Then Apple announces a new awesome products and the cycle starts all over again.
He does realize that the punditocracy has been saying this before the iPhone even hit the street? That they were also saying this about the ipOS for the duration of its ten year run? The combined might of the tech industry couldn’t unseat or make irrelevant the iPod, and it had no where near the support that the current crop of iDevices now enjoys.
Kee is a no brainer, full stop. He has nothing but bs.
“Kee continues, ‘Already today when you walk into a wireless carrier the Apple products are tucked away far in the corner. Competing products are front and center, with large banners, for all customers to see. These carriers are promoting upgrades to competing products because the margins are much better than with Apple products.'”
This little statement proves this guy is shooting blanks. This is business as usual – push everything except Apple… It’s been happening since Best Buy became the first retailer of Apple products way back in the early ’90s… or was it late ’80s… ?