IHS: Microsoft’s Windows Phone to bump iPhone for second place in 2015 market share

“Thanks mainly to the new Lumia 900 and Nokia, Windows Phone could represent nearly 17% of the smartphones shipped in 2015, edging out Apple’s iPhone for the second-place ranking behind Android smartphones,” Matt Hamblen reports for Computerworld.

“That’s the view of analysts at IHS (formerly iSuppli) who are well aware that Windows Phone made up only 1.9% of the market for all of 2011, with Apple’s iOS at 18% and Android smartphones by all makers at 47.4%,” Hamblen reports. “(Note: Apple’s iPhone share surged to 44% in the fourth quarter, according to Nielsen and others.)”

Hamblen reports, “IHS said Thursday that Windows Phone will reach 16.7% of market share in 2015, behind first-ranked Android at 58.1% and just slightly ahead of iOS at 16.6%.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Could happen, if the courts and royalties debilitate Android to the point where Windows Phone becomes more attractive to the iPhone wannabes of the world (Samsung, HTC, etc.). We’re talking unit share here, not profit share, where Apple rules and will continue to rule regardless of the veracity of IHS’s very-much-iCal’ed prediction.

80 Comments

      1. Dude… you made me regurge some of that burrito from lunch.

        Damn. I just had a crowd over here watching Dancing Monkey Boy. Then I read this.

        Yuck, man. Just yuck.

      2. Great line!

        Watch out or Ploth and his right-wing righteous moralist minions will start spamming this thread with doom and gloom because Uncle Fester can’s overtake his god-given and (hopefully) female wife.

    1. Methinks they’re already leading in so many markets, there’s no need to “overtake” when you’re already in the lead. Desktop OS: check. Enterprise Email: check. Gaming console & game sales: check.

    2. For sure this article was written before the latest share results were release. Android 47% share iPhone 44% share.

      Compare those figures used by IHS.

      Long before MISFT’s Windows Phone gains any traction, Android will have been surpassed by iPhone.

      After today’s Apple announcement, whoever is #2 will be a distant #2 by 2015.

  1. The Apple iPhone is the #1! smartphone! It’s unfair to lump all Android phones against the iPhone. If they compete one-on-one, iPhone is #1! Looks like some one has been drinking the electric Kool-aid again. Stevie Balmy & M$ aren’t creative enough to come up with a decent phone, much less an entire ecosystem for the phone by 2015. Where do they get these guys? How much do they pay them to write this stuff? How can I get a job doing it? 🙂

    1. … so much as #1, #2 and #3! Of course, Android phones are #4-#50, or so.
      Yes … there are more Android phones sold than iOS phones. And, yes, Apple earns more profit from their smaller market share than those other guys do from their larger share. Both facts should be taken with a grain of salt.

      1. Please se my comments on page 2. NPD had reported earlier in the month. Apple had #1, #2, and #3 MODELS of phones. Currently Apple is #2 if you compare Apple to Android. The share for Android phones is plummeting, the share for Apple is rising. Care to take a guess who will have marketshare lead at this time next year? People want real phones! not TOY phones!

        Toy phone=cheap, not mad to last or have the OS updated, and marketed to kids and adolescents=Android.

        When give a choice between a new Android phone and a 3 year old model iPhone 3GS, most choose the iPhone.

        Apples’s ecosystem is much better than Android’s; NO mal-ware with apps. 🙂

    1. It’s 2012. 2015 is three years away, so that’s three iterations of the iPhone in the future. Do you really think you can forecast that far into the future?
      You’ll prove to be just as accurate as all these analysts, which is to say, not at all. You really need to get over your pathological obsession with screen sizes.
      I’m sure someone can recommend a good therapist.

    2. Hello idiot. You know you are just about the only fool on these pages who wants a big fat phone. Just go away and get yourself an Android supercalifragilistic or whatever and leave us alone.

            1. … in case you didn’t get the message: “Robert is right.”
              Stated another way: “Breeze is in the wrong”. Or “Breeze is acting like a child, pretending to be ‘aw growed up’ – and nasty.”
              No … don’t care to kiss your childish butt.

    3. Nokia’s phone has a shitty 4.3″ screen because the Android OEMs have to compensate for shrinking UI elements!

      If you think Apple will sit idle and allow its competitors to out-tech them, you’ve got another think coming.

      Troll.

    4. Dude, give it an effing rest…
      If it is zune-tangish sarcasam then it has long since lost it’s lustre. If it is serious then you have gone from lame to the point where we are embarrassed for you.

      It sucks to carry one of those monstrosities around in your pocket (a fact ‘roid 4G sufferers discover after they buy it) besides you look stupih walking around holding a huge phone to your ear.
      I believe Grubberhas hit the nail on the head: the manufactures know the oversized phones are awkward to carry and use, the real reason they are using that oversized form factor is because they are using not quite ready for prime time 4G chipsets that are battery hogs and the need the space for huge batteries (or they would get an hour or two of 4G talktime)

      iCal it; when the new 4G chipsets are ready this spring (which have reasonable power consumption) the size of phones will magically go back down to reasonable size (like 3 1/2″)

    5. The DroidBots have convinced consumers they need a fat wide phone because: android phones have to SETTLE for 2nd best components. Apple has a lock on all the best stuff including custom designed chips. Apple can make a thinner phone with more features and a sharper screen. Better resolution means same real-estate on a smaller screen and still readable. If there were truth in advertising they’d call a Droid phone; Droid Toy Tweener! 🙂

  2. Apple’s share cited incorrectly. 18% is worldwide level share, while in USA the number was close to 27-29% through the year. Also, the surge in Q4 to 44% is for USA market. Since most of people in the world could not buy iPhone 4S in Q4 even if they wanted to, Apple’s global share raised not that dramatically.

  3. Sigh! It’s the dreaded 2015 again! After countless predictions by countless pundits, tt’s now confirmed beyond all doubt that Apple will be destroyed in 2015. Nothing will remain of the company as its products plunge into the netherworld.

    The only silver lining is that Apple will survive 2012, when the world is supposed to end!

    I wonder if MDN has iCal’d all the prophets predicting 2015 as the year of Apple’s doom. You could have a year’s worth of stories just LOL-ing all these pundits in 2016.

  4. These guys are like weather forecasters. They get to keep their jobs even when they’re 180 degrees off. “Jobs death the end of APPL” wrong. “iPad to fall behind Annoydroid” wrong. “Microlimp phone to usurp iPhone” wrong.

  5. If anything, Windows Phone will take some share away from Android, because it provides an alternate to Android for smartphone makers who are too lazy and cheap to create and maintain their own in-house OS.

    This “projection” is pure fantasy. In order to project something meaningful, there needs to be some type of historical data with which to base the projection. Windows Phone has failed to gain significant market share so far, so that is no basis for projecting the overtaking of iPhone in 2015. Using that data, the projection should be for Windows Phone to be gone by 2015.

    And that Nokia Windows Phone is very recent (no real data)… How can it be used as a basis for projecting something happening in 2015?

  6. Ha, ha, ha. Good one.

    Ignoring multiple facts:

    iPhone is still growing with no signs of a plateau.
    iPhone is still rolling out on new, massive telcos (China telecom anyone?)
    The neanderthal iPHone GS still sells gangbusters without a dual processor or 4 inch screen or HD camera or anything else “current.”
    WinMo7 has zero traction with anyone who counts: telcos, devs, OEMs and consumers. (yes, Android patent litigation could change that somewhat)
    Having a kewl gizmo isn’t enough anymore. That’s the easy part. Now, you need a massive ecosystem around the gizmo to truly compete.

    These guys need to go back to trying to figure out component cost, although they weren’t real good at that either.

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