“Apple will lose its overwhelming dominance of the consumer tablet space within the next three years, according to a prediction from analyst Jack Gold,” Nicholas Kolakowski reports for eWeek.
“His research note also predicts that Microsoft will own roughly 10 percent of the consumer tablet market by that 2014-2015 timeframe, beating out Research In Motion’s QNX operating system with less than 10 percent but losing out to iOS (30 percent) and Android (50 percent),” Kolakowski reports. “‘By 2014-15 we expect Android tablets to acquire a majority share of the consumer market as the number of vendors and variety of models overwhelm the iPad,’ Gold wrote in a Nov. 1 research note accompanying the data.”
Kolakowski reports, “He sees RIM’s QNX market as primarily ‘security conscious industries and governments (while also being bedded in automotive and other products.’ A small percentage of the space will be held by “primarily Linux-derived and/or HTML5-centric OSes” such as Tizen and Chrome.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: “It’s déjà vu all over again.” – Yogi Berra
“I am pretty skeptical. I don’t think [iPhone] will meet the fantastic predictions I have been reading. For starters, while Apple basically established the market for portable music players, the phone market is already established, with a number of major brands. Can Apple remake the phone market in its image? Success is far from guaranteed.” – Jack Gold, January 11, 2007
The image in MDN’s take reminded me of this quote…
“more bars in more places”
lol
REALITY CHECK
… I have been with Apple for the last 20 years – my company runs over 250 macs ( even though many run windows ! ). … But can tell you that reality is that somehow, even though Android is a piece of crap – outside the US the steel grip of Apple is not so strong.
Take India for instance – the iPad is lower than 25% share of what we call the tablet market which was invented by Apple.
It is not inconceivable, that there will be huge gain of other vendors not because they are producing an amazing tablet – but the sheer number of companies that will and do make devices that are like an iPad but not so.
Even in phones, android is beating the pants off Apple devices in south east asia etc..
Yogi Berra also said:
“Predictions are hard, especially when it’s about the future.”
Wouldn’t Microsoft have to actually ship a tablet OS by 2014-2015 in order to have a 10% market share? And did Gold just pull that number out of his fart hole, considering that Microsoft has far less than 10% of the smartphone share with Windows Phone 7?
Also, seeing as no company has yet been able to even come close to Apple with a working, price-competitive Android tablet, where does the belief that Android will have a majority of the market come from? More fart gas?
They’re called anal-ysts because they pull those figures right from where the sun doesn’t shine.
2015? 4 years ahead. That’s like predicting today’s smartphone market in 2007 when Android didn’t even exist except for some doodles on a napkin Eric Schmidt smuggled out of Apple’s boardroom.
Siri on iPad… Engage! Others left in the warp drive exhaust.
Lol
“Apple will lose its overwhelming dominance of the consumer tablet space within…” blahblahblah
To WHAT? There are NO COMPETITORS.
It makes me sick at heart to say it, but:
There are no companies capable of competing with Apple at this time of biznizz degradation around the world.
I am NOT looking forward to a monopoly of Apple products, much as I love the company. EVERY company requires competition in order to innovate and progress! Apple has no competitors and that’s a bad thing.
“Analyst” Nicholas Kolakowski and TechTard associates:
Wake the hell up and ring the alarm bell. Your brains are all stuck in ‘sleep mode’.
ERROR: Apologies to Nicholas Kolakowski!
The last line should read:
“Analyst” Jack Gold and TechTard associates:
Wake the hell up and ring the alarm bell. Your brains are all stuck in ‘sleep mode’.
He’s not defining tablets. He’s expecting the Fire and other readers to get a foothold, they aren’t the same as the iPad, so they shouldn’t count, but in the Android world they do. The Fire may take off, but it’s still not an iPad.