Analyst: Apple iPad will lose tablet dominance with the next 36 months

“Apple will lose its overwhelming dominance of the consumer tablet space within the next three years, according to a prediction from analyst Jack Gold,” Nicholas Kolakowski reports for eWeek.

“His research note also predicts that Microsoft will own roughly 10 percent of the consumer tablet market by that 2014-2015 timeframe, beating out Research In Motion’s QNX operating system with less than 10 percent but losing out to iOS (30 percent) and Android (50 percent),” Kolakowski reports. “‘By 2014-15 we expect Android tablets to acquire a majority share of the consumer market as the number of vendors and variety of models overwhelm the iPad,’ Gold wrote in a Nov. 1 research note accompanying the data.”

Kolakowski reports, “He sees RIM’s QNX market as primarily ‘security conscious industries and governments (while also being bedded in automotive and other products.’ A small percentage of the space will be held by “primarily Linux-derived and/or HTML5-centric OSes” such as Tizen and Chrome.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: “It’s déjà vu all over again.” – Yogi Berra

“I am pretty skeptical. I don’t think [iPhone] will meet the fantastic predictions I have been reading. For starters, while Apple basically established the market for portable music players, the phone market is already established, with a number of major brands. Can Apple remake the phone market in its image? Success is far from guaranteed.” – Jack Gold, January 11, 2007
 
 
Siri, remind us to serve Jack Gold more core on November 2, 2014

69 Comments

    1. I second your Hum. Apple’s iOS devices will be beat out by a company that will not survive that long and requires their RIMM Blackberry for their tablet to go online. And Microsoft OS based tablet. Has anyone seen one? Are they hiding behind the Zune mp3 players that I also have never seen anywhere. EVER!

      When will they get the THOUSANDS of missing apps?

      When will they have their own Siri?

      Is this clueless idiot related to Steven Ballmer or someone else working at Microsoft? Idiot.

    2. 1. Gold is a RIM and Windows sock-puppet. Look back at when the iPhone first launched for his disparaging comments – he was wrong then and wrong now.

      Jack Gold = Rob Enderle

    1. That, and these ANALysts have been predicting the end of the iPods dominance of the music player market, every year for the LAST DECADE.

      Of course, people stopped listening to them in recent years, but after a decade of this kind of nonsense its amazing people still buy it. (mostly integrity challenged androids, of course.)

    1. He just uses this tried and true formula

      “By (three years in the future) we expect so & so’s tablets to acquire a majority share of the consumer market as the number of vendors and variety of models overwhelm the iPad”

      repeat every six months
      one of these centuries it might even come true…

    2. I love his confident “Will Lose” instead of “Might Lose” like he knows something we don’t, but instead knows only, as you said, Jack Shit. There oughta be a law against definitive declarative statements one way or the other based on maybe’s, what if’s and “I thinks”.

  1. Another so-called analyst about to make a total ass of himself. These guys must think that no one remembers their idiotic predictions – well, meet iCal, bitch!

    Also, “Apple basically established the market for portable music players”? Really…..

        1. It would be more accurate to say that Apple (Steve Jobs, the iPod) re-invented or revolutionized the way we listen to and purchase music. But the portable music player market has been around even before the Walkman. I mean, hand-held and pocket am-fm radios, and later cassette players and finally CDs all had a pretty good market before the iPod. But iPod was DEFINITELY a game changer.

      1. I actually saw someone walking by me on the street yesterday with a Sony Discman clutched in his hand! I haven’t seen one of those in years. Too big to fit in a pocket. To sensitive to movement to go there anyway. Yikes!

  2. Stupid is as stupid does. I’d be surprised if Android owned 5% of the market in 2015 what with the totally crappy tablets that are out there in the market. 9.7″ rules brah. Go iPad.

    1. Not just the size, but the aspect ratio on the iPad is perfect. It feels natural in any orientation. I remember Steve Jobs’ description at the iPad launch keynote. He said there is no up no down, no wrong way to hold it.

      Widescreen tablets feel awkward when held in portrait orientation. Sure, if you are watching a movie, you have the letterbox black bars, but the iPad is not just for watching movies. This also proves that the iPad was not intended for media consumption only, and that Android makers have lost the plot on what a tablet can really do if done right.

        1. I’ll bet that was one of the most important things Jobs and Ive decided during the design process. It proves the brilliance and care that they had. They didn’t just say, “Let’s make something people will want to watch movies on.” The said, “when the movie’s over, then what are we gonna want to do with the thing? What aspect will work best for every use?”

  3. LOL. Do these people actually get paid to write this crap?

    Android tablet adoption rate is abysmal, which is why none of them even report SALES figures. I’m guessing they think that the Kindle Fire is going to change that, and it WILL be successful, but it isn’t even an iPad competitor in actuality. Of course, I don’t expect them to understand.

    It’s amazing how little these people understand the industry they write about.

  4. Microsoft proposed and discarded the Courier project in public. If Apple proposes a project and then decides not to pursue it, no one outside that part of Apple ever hears about it. Because Apple keeps its future product plans under wraps, its competitors are always competing with iProduct 1 just as Apple comes out with iProduct 2. Siri is a case in point: no one saw it coming.

    Apple’s competitors haven’t learned that you can’t outrun someone by following him. As long as they copy Apple, they lose. They can only “win” by coming up with their own ideas.

    Apple doesn’t make sales a goal, because it is a side-effect of customer satisfaction. They also don’t make world domination a goal, because it doesn’t matter. Profit margin does.

    So what if Microsoft takes 25% of the iPad market? Apple will still have happier customers, more repeat business, a better profit margin, and tons of money; plus some immunity from accusations of monopolistic practices.

    So far as the analyst is concerned. No one makes a name for himself by writing a thesis that Shakespeare wrote Shakespeare’s plays. You can make a name for yourself if you argue cogently that Teddy Roosevelt wrote them. The analyst is in an environment where sensationalism gives him visibility. Three years from now, when he’s back down to earth, he’ll have an audience that will listen to him.

    1. From all available evidence, Microsoft had no intention of making the Courier. Redmond must have forgotten that it wasn’t 2006 and that people were no longer fooled by their pathetic attempt to freeze the iPad market with a vaporware video.

      I’d argue that the only hope people have for competing with Apple is to copy them just enough not to get nuked in court. WebOS and the Playbook are examples of the non-existent capacities the competition has for creating a new product.

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