“Apple’s (AAPL) shares have dropped $24.52 (6.8%) in the past three trading days for reasons that have nothing to do with the company’s underlying business. In a note to clients issued Wednesday, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster tries to bring the subject back to Apple’s fundamentals,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.
• He expects the iPhone, which represents 39% of Apple’s revenues today, to at least keep pace with the smartphone’s current growth rate of 35% per year and sell 200 million units in 2015. That implies that more than 40% of Apple’s revenue stream will grow at the rate of 35% per year from 2013 to 2015.
• He expects the iPad to grow faster than the iPhone, and the Mac and iPod to grow more slowly.
• “The net,” he writes, “is we believe a sustainable 25-30% growth rate in earnings could be achievable through 2015.”
Read more in the full article, including why Apple is in a position to significantly expand its iPhone user base here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Dow C.” for the heads up.]
I believe that would put the stock somewhere around $850 if it kept pace with earnings. I could retire on that (several times!)
$850 is not out of line …. Watch Apple explode in new iMac and NoteBook sales over the next couple years ….
I mean explode like 100% year over year growth …. Remember there are a lot of aging PCs out there and they will get replaced with Macs …..
25-30% yearly growth through 2015 means that by the end of that year Apple’s revenue will reach $285 billion and net profits $63 billion.
I am not sure that this is technically possible.
just look around …. world is still some 80+ percent windows – just a few short years ago it was over 92% windows ….. there is a ton of room for growth, at MSFT expense and others ….
There are still many, massive untapped markets where, for example, the iPad could simply explode over the next few years. Remember, statistics show that still, as of December 2010, there are not quite even 2 billion internet users. Just imagine hitting 3 billion. That’s a 50% increase and still less than half the world population. And who’s going to, potentially, domine those new markets? Likely whoever dominates the mobile platform- and Apple’s is well on its way to doing just that now.
They could easily sell 100 million tablets in a year ….. As the tablet becomes more main stream and desktop goes bye bye, except for corporate and pros …..
25-30% may be light, Piper …..
What most fail to understand is Windows 7 / Vista / XP are dying a slow death …. Machines are being replaced by Macs ….
Number of iMacs and MacBook Pros and MacAir, like the one I am using, will dominate sales in the next couple years, more and more Macs will be sold …..
Sounds like a reasonable prediction to me.
Count on that to make a nice retirement.
Any longtime Apple investor that knows the company and is disciplined enough by their conviction, to ignore the FUD mongering knows the rewards are solid.
The drop in Apple’s share price is CRAZY given the amount of growth and leadership it has in all of its markets. The only thing good about it is that now it creates another buying opportunity. The stock price should have surpassed Google’s long ago in my opinion given the fact that Apple is the second largest company in the market in the WORLD!!!!
When you couple this news with the new Ricky Martin album on iTunes, you come to realize that Apple’s stock is hotter than Al Gore’s ‘burnin’ rubber’ tires after encountering a group of reporters….;-)
Please don’t quit your day job !
@Ansel
No question Mac sales will grow. However the iOS devices will grow at an even faster rate and eventually OSX and iOS will be blended together to run on iOS devices which will absorb the Macs.
Larger screen devices to replace Mac desktops and iPad Macbook sized screens to replace note books. For those who need it it satan alone key boards will be available.
Imagine a large screen device of this type in an art studio or lying flat on an architects drafting table for example. Screens will continue to be thinner and lighter. They could be wall mounted etc. They could be interactive displays for all kinds of medical, professional, industrial, artistic, graphical and educational applications.
This is way bigger than even the iPad in it’s current form.
This is the future of computing.
Agree, meanwhile those stuck to a desk will buy more and more Macs …
The mobil is a given but as I pointed out the desktop is where the estimates are being missed ….
Your vision of the future is wonderful and makes sense, I can see clearly now ….
Although a “satan” alone keyboard has a certain ring to it, I meant “stand alone”.
Watch out for Satanic keyboards!
Great typo. You’d better go trademark “satanic keyboards” before someone else grabs it.
oh yea!!! Now an analyst is confirming my thoughts back in November 2010 🙂
AAPL in
2011 = $422 add $100/yr!!!!
2015 = $828 USA dollares 🙂
Buy AAPL stocks! 401k happy!
All the projections make sense, unless the entire market has a major correction or meltdown, as has happened in the past. Apple is not immune to a market-wide slide. I’m going to hold, and expect great things, but never forget that we all can get hurt by factors outside the control of aapl.
a “boom” is always fallowed by a “bust” apple is actually doing quite well but there stock became over inflated during a “boom”
there is a rule in the stock market that most should remember:
“buy low sell high”
most people unfortunately do the oppisite
How enlightening Hal.