“On April 9, 2007, Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple Inc. announced the sale of the 100 millionth iPod. To say that iPod sales have been anything less than dramatic would be an understatement, and to call the revolutionary iPod anything less than an entire product ecosystem wouldn’t be doing it justice. Between the more than 4,000 accessories to date and the billions in revenue generated by selling proprietary downloads of songs 99 cents at a time on iTunes (and now TV shows, movies, audio books, etc.), Apple has built a nearly flawless business model around the iPod that is the envy of big tech and big media companies alike, and as sales built to record numbers it seemed that the only thing that could slow the iPod’s ascent off the sales forecast charts would be Apple itself,” Brad Kenney writes for IndustryWeek.
“As unlikely as that may seem, it may have happened. Apple co-founder, CEO and chief evangelist Steve Jobs is a charismatic public presence by any account, and his theatrical unveiling of a prototype of the company’s new iPhone at Apple’s Macworld Expo consumer conference this past January was met with near-rapturous outpourings of desire for this new ‘it’ device. However, once the glow of the sneak peek at this new Apple product-to-be wore off, a more sober assessment of the situation revealed that the premature announcement wasn’t as well timed a move as industry watchers are accustomed to expecting from Apple,” Kenney writes.
MacDailyNews Take: Let’s look past Kenney’s transparently sarcastic use of the term “near-rapturous” for a moment; surely Kenney has good reasons why Apple CEO Steve Jobs’ iPhone announcement wasn’t “well-timed,” right?
Kenney continues, “First of all, consider the name. At the time of the Macworld announcement, San Jose-based Cisco Systems owned the exclusive rights to the term iPhone, and although there was no doubt that Apple (the originator of the iMac and iMovie, iPhoto and the rest of the iLife line) would acquire the rights by any means necessary, such a high-profile announcement surely put a strain on negotiations…”
MacDailyNews Take: Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Apple and Cisco have agreed to use the name jointly. The “controversy” generated created much free publicity and helped get the name “iPhone” into the general public’s consciousness. This is not proof that iPhone announcement wasn’t “well-timed,” it’s proof that the announcement was “well-timed.” Surely Kenney has better reasons coming, right?
Kenney continues, “Secondly, consider the fact that the iPhone was nowhere near ready to ship when the prototype was unveiled. Again, Apple usually has all its ducks in a row (and boxed up and loaded into trucks) before sweeping aside the veil of secrecy surrounding any new product. By giving such a long (it’s been almost six months and still no iPhone) time lag, Apple has not only allowed excitement to dim but has also negatively impacted iPod sales in the interim.”
MacDailyNews Take: We’ll need more proof than Brad’s words that excitement has “dimmed” over iPhone. If anything, excitement has grown, with AT&T signing up over a million people interested in iPhone via their website and – this is the real reason for the timing of the iPhone announcement and demo – allowing people to let their contracts lapse, freezing the so-called “smartphone” market in its tracks. As for iPod sales: there is simply no proof of negative impact: Apple’s 10.549 million iPod sales last quarter were 24% over the year-ago quarter. Kennney is 0 for 2, so far.
Kenney continues, “Also, by giving the world an uncharacteristic pre-launch peek at the iPhone, Jobs put every reverse-engineering department in the grey market into a frenzy to produce a competitive knockoff and steal some market share from the real thing.”
MacDailyNews Take: Apple spent years developing the iPhone. iPhone makes all other “smartphones” from even the reputable makers look stupid. Some Chinese knockoff outfit isn’t going to knockoff the iPhone in six months. And they’re certainly not going to steal any meaningful market share; just as cheap iPod knockoffs haven’t stolen any iPod market share. You’re 0-3, Brad.
Kenney continues, “To cap it all off, there was actually another very interesting, unique new product unveiled at Macworld — AppleTV — with a confirmed ship date and for which Apple was already taking pre-orders. The brightness of Jobs’ iPhone spotlight inevitably meant that quite a few consumers were left in the dark concerning this new media extension device…”
MacDailyNews Take: More meaningless blather from Brad. Any overshadowing of Apple TV by iPhone is not proof that the timing of the announcement will hurt the iPhone. The two are totally different products, targeted at different markets. 0-4.
Kenney continues, “Despite what was widely characterized as bad timing by Jobs, the iPhone’s unique intuitive interface, rich feature set and undeniable cool factor paired with Apple’s pre-loaded customer loyalty means that, so long as Apple’s product developers remain at the top of their game, no amount of marketing missteps can keep this new Apple product from getting eaten up by the market.”
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Twilightmoon” for the heads up.]
MacDailyNews Take: The iPhone announcement has not been “widely characterized as bad timing by Jobs.” One Brad Kenny has called it as “bad timing by Jobs” and offered no valid proof to support his characterization. The iPhone announcement was very well-timed. It gave customers time to prepare; letting them allow their current contracts to lapse and freezing the market as they put their next phone purchase on hold. With regard to the timing of the iPhone announcement, we’ll have to side with Steve Jobs, a man with a record of radically changing multiple industries and proven marketing acumen, over some no-name IndustryWeek hack who offers no valid evidence to support his goofy theories.
Sry, Kennedy=Kenny.
Bastards.
Another day, another journalist with no story and looking nervously at the editor glaring at him.
So come up with a “concept” – umm, how ’bout “iPhone announced too early”? – and then it’s a simple matter of putting together enough logical-sounding so-called “reasons”, and voila! he’s got another slow news day taken care of.
Finally, he covers his butt by concluding that DESPITE this “bad move” by Jobs, people are going to snap up the iPhone! If they do, he can say, “I told you so!”; if they don’t, he can say, “I told you why!”
Chrissy’s right.
Bastards.
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Since we’re touching on the Leopard delay with this discussion, I have some thoughts on that, too.
I really thing that it all went something like this:
MS works on Vista… Actually, MS works on Cairo, Longhorn, XP SP3, er, Vista…
Apple works on Leopard…
Vista is released first, Apple plans to answer soon after, because Apple suspects Vista will be no big deal, but allows enough time for discontent before allowing the cat to pounce…
Apple gets a hold of Vista. Says collectively… “This is IT? This is all you’ve done with 5 years??? Ah hell, and you even had us up nights! Okay, no worries.”
Apple, now even more secure in the superiority of their technology, pushes back Leopard to allow another 4 months of developer beta testing, and perhaps to include features they didn’t think they had time for.
Speculation: Maybe, just maybe, some NT APIs…
In the mean time, devote all available resources to getting the phone out the door.
This is my theory. Maybe it makes me a tech journalist on par with Kenney. We’ll soon see.
-c
Chrissy … I BELIEVE you !!
No need for belief, the evidence is before us. =)
ChrissyOne ..
True … but I was referring to your 12:24 post … seems you were quicker on the trigger than I when you posted again !
@NearTheTop…
I have similar hopes in regard to the augmentation of iPhone’s storage capacity, and believe you are correct in your assessment that it will come via the integration of .Mac services. Daniel Eran of RoughlyDrafted.com posted an article today about this very subject entitled ‘A Global Upgrade for Bonjour: AirPort, iPhone, Leopard, .Mac’. He also specifically questioned Mr. Jobs about .Mac at the shareholder’s meeting last week,
“With so much innovation and execution in hardware, software and in retail, what is Apple doing in online services? Apple is in a unique position to offer its customers personalized services, so why have we seen so little investment in this area of Apple’s business? Is it not something the company recognizes as a potential revenue source, or is Apple leaving it to other companies like Google to provide? .Mac is a pretty weak offering that has made little advancement in the last half decade.
Jobs acknowledged that Apple’s .Mac service was not a strong product but that improvements to Apple’s online services were in the works and would show up shortly, leaving the impression with me that Leopard would deliver a stronger set of services. If that’s the case, next month’s WWDC may deliver new information on the issue.”
For persons such as yourself, who travel a lot and may not have access to network services during those travels, Apple will hopefully support the use of Seagate’s DAVE Bluetooth/WiFi portable HD.
Abdullah,
right!
These articles are patently pseudo- sensationalist.
The second-rate journalist thinks of an absurd, but eye-catching headline such as:- ‘iPhone causes cancer’ and then twists and stretches the facts to try to substantiate the claim.
It’s so silly and transparent. But in a way it works.
A child who sits quietly in the corner gets no attention.
A child who shits on the carpet and bawls does.
Kenney has apparently learned his journalistic technique from his childhood.
I’m one of those who has thought, from the very beginning, that it was revealed too early.
to say, “Wow, look at all the publicity Apple got.” is just naive.
Having been a designer and manufacturer of electronics products, I can tell you that 6 months is plenty of time to redesign a product to better compete with a competitor—once the feature set of that competitor is known.
I still think that Macworld should have been reserved for a better introduction of Leopard, the ATv, and some long awaited MAC products.
The iPhone could have been announced at one of Apple’s “Special Events” in late March.
That would have given Apple and ATT plenty of time to discuss the device when it was further along in development, with fewer blank spots on the screen.
The FCC doesn’t go around announcing to the world the products that have entered testing, and it’s not unusual for them to keep products under an embargo if the manufacturer requests. Apple is doing that now with certain specs, again, nothing that unusual. The FCC has a very good understanding of competitive requirements.
even if the information that the FCC was testing a phone product for Apple, it would have been good for Apple, as no one would have known just what Apple was coming out with.
MDN, as usual, has such a fanboy reaction to everything, that whoever writes the drivel for this site has no idea of what the real world is really about.
CWEB
exactly what I gathered from his statement.
let’s hope.
Another witless dolt sounds off just to hear himself talk! The CEO of AT&T recently referred to the iPhone as quite possibly the largest commercial product launch in the history of the electronics industry. Although it is certainly in AT&T’s self-interest to paint such a grandiose picture of the iPhone, in this case they may be quite correct. I wouldn’t be surprised to see reports of more than a little organized chaos at many Apple Stores around the country on the day of the launch. And that’s not even considering AT&T. Apple will hit the stage with two guns blazing, that’s for sure. You can see the fear in Bill Gates’ eyes.
Hi! C1. Mostly agree with your observations. Apple have been given the go ahead to expand the offices at Cupertino. With all the staff in one area, it should be easier to offer and manage services like .Mac. I guess if servers are required for the storage of information, they would be more secure at Cupertino than at the current set up of rented offices all over the city.
Meanwhile…..My god! they’ve killed Kenny again!!
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM.Tech.Q2.07/024ADDC8-0F0F-4378-918D-ED4F8703D958.html
Once the FCC and patent filings were done, the Apple Rumor Mill would have driven itself into a feeding frenzy unlike any seen previously, which would have created unrealistic expectations for the iPhone. Apple did exactly the right thing – take advantage of the REQUIRED public disclosure to hype the product by revealing many cool features but NEVER letting people play with the iPhone for more than a few minutes (with a few, specially selected exceptions who were known to be sympathetic to Apple).
Considering iPhone is the most anticipated and largest mobile phone launch in history, I think Apple has done very well in managing hype, expectations, secrecy and FCC disclosures.
mel Gross,
the ‘feature set’ you talk about has been covered by about 200 patents, which means competitors will have to come up with some completely new ideas which are even better, and then put them into practice.
If you’re right, then by the time iPhone is released – in about 5 weeks now – smart phones, which are better than the iPhone, are going to be launched!
Well, we don’t have to wait long to see if you’re right, do we?
P.S. They’ll also have to develop an OS for portables, which is better than OS X.
I wanted to type in the above post:
‘as good or better than the iPhone’.
What will make the iPhone a success is if it becomes a often used useful tool
The iPod is great because it allows the portability of huge amounts of music.
A iPhone with maps and no GPS is absolutly worthless IMMO.
The iPhone’s small screen will not lend itself to too much web browsing and certaintly take too long to download some content. So if one is a heavy web surfer, they will prefer a computer with a larger screen instead, unless of course if the MyVue glasses can be used with the iPhone, then perhaps not.
I’m not intentionally plugging the Myvue, they are ok, but do give a little eyestrain with a lot of use, perhaps Apple has a better solution in the works.
This would be a great time for Apple to unveil their alternative to OfficeMac for the iPhone or Google to introduce office apps via web browser.
MDN Word “company”
“I love this company” – Steve “Monkeyboy” Ballmer
C1,
I agree. As I said before, Leopard is going to be Apple’s “Pink” OS.
For those who don’t get the reference…..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Pink
If we assume that a June release date was always on the cards and then work back, Apple say they had to announce before so it wouldn’t leak from the FCC. Fair enough, we’ve already seen the approval so we would have known from that, which validates their reasoning.
Apple couldn’t be 100% when it would pass or that it wouldn’t need retooling. As such they needed enough time in advance to allow them to keep a June date if anything came up.
Based on the time-scale, MacWorld was the only event that they could have launched at – unless they scheduled a specific event. Of course, a specific event may have been somewhat of a let down when it was just an announcement of an unfinished product. With MacWorld the press was already there and it gave the added bonus of taking the spotlight away from CES (more-so). With a specific event they would have had to invite people which would have raised expectations.
Ultimately if the product is great it won’t have made any difference and if it’s not then it won’t matter either.
January to today is about 4 months, not “nearly six months.” Even January to June is 5 months. I writer who cannot do simple math should not be taken seriously.
@ mel Gross, You haven’t specified whether you were involved in the launching and marketing of the products you were involved with.
I can claim similar credentials to yours except I can go further to say that I have been involved in targeting, marketing and launching of products all the way to packaging and advertising.
As a manufacturer, you are answering to a brief.
In marketing you aim for the target of the brief.
In design & advertising you answer to communication.
As a consumer, you find out the limitations of the product in relation to all of the above.
Apple inc. seem to examine and question each of all those stages and come up with the answers before the questions have been asked.
I think that is why you will find that even though you are right that it is easier & quicker to design retrospectively, if you have addressed all the disciplines as above & have pantented each step of the developement.
You will only be left with the situation where the Co-founder of M$ complained that Apple inc. have so many patents that the rest of the industry cannot innovate with infringing one or many of those patents.
So, does the suggestion you offer answer the question of Bi-annual contracts?
If as you suggest they should have waited until later, how many indiviuals do you think would have had the opportunity to seriously consider changing contracts & providers? How many more people would have purchased Macs in preparation for the iphone not that it is Mac-centric.
How many products that you were involved in where comparable to the iphone in terms of a carrier, contract and usage?
You maybe an expert in your field, but it doesn’t make you an expert in all other fields that overlap yours.
Jeez, Alex. I told you to invent the vest-pocket Rolodex.
not really. Most patents are never used by a company. They do research, and come up with patents.
Apple has patented many ideas they have never used.
I’m not saying that these new phones will appear right away, if at all. It will depend on any number or reasons. If the iPhone doesn’t do as well as expected. If it does better than expected.
Which features people like most from it. Which features people like (or hate) least, etc.
Many features don’t need OS X to be incorporated either. Remember that.
“@ mel Gross, You haven’t specified whether you were involved in the launching and marketing of the products you were involved with.”
I was. I was a partner in the firm. I took part in all phases of planning.
I also worked in advertising for five years.
Let me say that you can’t patent all phases of development of a product.
Very few areas of a product are patentable by the manufacturer because it uses already patented devices from other manufacturers.
Where did Gates, or anyone ever say that Apple had so many patents that no one else could ever innovate? I don’t remember anyone from MS ever saying that. You would have to link to that.
I don’t think that anything you have said supports your contention. Since you don’t have experience in any of these areas yourself, you can’t say.
weak sauce, this article sucks. Touching on topics people have been reading about for months now. The bottom line is that the iphone will be the biggest thing to ever happen to apple or the cellular phone industry. It will not be the best phone in the world nor the cheapest, but for those that like Apple products, hold on to your hats! We can all obviously tell that the author of this article is a bonafide mac fanboy!