“What does Apple’s iPhone have in common with the failed Apple Newton of more than a decade ago? Nothing. Yet,” David Haskin blogs for Computerworld.
Haskin writes, “But I was reminded of the Newton lately and how, despite its current hot streak, Apple doesn’t have an unblemished record when it comes to introducing innovative new devices. And the company may well be making some of the same mistakes now as it made in 1993 when it introduced Newton.”
“Apple seems to be repeating the cycle again with iPhone, developing what is undoubtedly an advanced product with a remarkable interface and overcharging for it. A recent survey found that a minuscule number of consumers would pay $500 for a 4 GB iPhone. It’s a good reminder that, for all their noise, Apple fanatics truly are a small percentage of the overall technology marketplace,” Haskin writes.
Haskin writes, “Besides overcharging for iPhone, Apple faces significant competition, something it didn’t face in 1993 when it launched Newton.”
“It’s also becoming clear that Apple may be suffering from excessive hubris. That is evident by its strong demands on its partner in the U.S., Cingular/AT&T. The demands, including a slice of the cellular revenues and control of the sales channel, were so strong that Verizon Wireless turned the deal down,” Haskin writes.
Haskin writes, “I’m more convinced than ever that, after an initial frenzy of publicity and sales to early adopters, iPhone sales will be unspectacular. If Apple doesn’t respond quickly by lowering the price and making nice to AT&T, which surely will be ticked off, iPhone may well become Apple’s next Newton.”
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “sketchtrain” for the heads up.]
There’s so much wrong with this — from reliance on tiny survey’s that asked undisclosed questions to Verizon-planted stories about how they “turned down” the iPhone — that we’re not even going to bother. Rest assured, Haskin’s opinion has been duly iCal’ed for future reference.
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If iPhone sales are unspectacular I suspect it will have more to do with its being locked to Cingular than anything to do with price or capability. I simply can’t use Cingular, they don’t service many of the areas I need to be on a daily basis, so as much as I’d like to buy an iPhone I won’t until I can use a different carrier.
The only mistake Apple made with the Newton was launching a product that was too far ahead of the market. Apple has now learnt to innovate in markets that have already been proven by others rather than try and create new markets itself – a far more profitable strategy. The smartphone market is proven and poised for rapid expansion – perfect timing to launch the iPhone. Tying it to a single carrier initially is also a master stroke, the iPhone will be a hugh discriminator for Cingular, they stand to gain millions of customers from their competitors, which is something that has been nigh on impossible in recent years due to the saturatation of the mobile marketplace – expect them to promote the hell out of it – it will be the most highly sort after gadet of the year.
re: American analysts/journalists commenting on mobile phone market is hilarious, as they seem to forget there is a wider world out there.
THE AMERICAN MOBILE PHONE MARKET IS FAR LESS MATURE THAN JAPAN OR EUROPE!
Just because some survey says Americans won’t buy a $500 mobile doesn’t mean the rest of the world won’t. There are lots of mobile phone handsets for sale in Europe/Japan that cost more than $500.
—
I totally agree.
Just look at the chinese/japanese markets – they love gadgets, infact their whole culture is based around it.
Apple is gonna sell shitloads of iPhones in the asian market!
Newton was a very advanced machine for its time. I had 2 of them the second and third generation. I would still have them today had I not been careless. People tend to forget that the latter Newtons has MS Word and Excel file capability. With the outboard keyboard it was more advanced than the sub 2lb notebooks of today. Granted it was monochrome but you didn’t need color to write reports or training manuals at 35,000 ft. I could take it to automation vendor sites and collect data in the Exel compatible spread sheet and the battery life was phenomenal. My contemporaries would lug their Dell portables with dongles and maybe 1/2 hour of battery life while I would routinely get a couple of weeks out of 4 AA batteries because of Newtons lack of heavy back-lighting and monochrome screen. I would just grab my Newton and start collecting data. Had the Newton stayed around and evolved ;got versions of OSX, went to Color etc.No doubt in my mind it would have been the current Iphone. The tablet capabilities would have advanced, it would be lighter, probably color. Few remember that latter generation Newtons had built in telephony. You could plug the Newton into a phone line and keep track of your minutes and costs to bill clients for your services as a consultant. It had a built in microphone and a tone generator for you to use the device as a hand set. Latter units did have a modem and it had not one but two full size PCMCIA slots. Ahh but for an errant misplacement of my Newton in a Florida motel room in Tampa I would probably still have it. Steve killed the original Newton to refocus Apples core strategy until it could be healthy again. IF you think that Iphone is not a Newton rebirth I would think again very carefully. I have buth Cingular and Verizon. I use a Motorola Q on Verizon with low talk minutes and high data package. I use Cingular because of roll over. Verizon was my original carrier and I got raped on overages every other month. Verizon offered no relief so I went to Cingular. My contract with Cingular is up this July. I will be getting an Iphone and probably the high end 8 gig model.
@ Macdaddy
a modem to connect to the internet ?
the newton was released in 1993, the web DID NOT EXIST !
(of course mail did (since a very long time), but only a few people used that.
As I look at my Newton…I can tell you what the difference is and why they ARE NOT going down the same path:
a) Newton used an OS that was completely different from all other Apple products.
b) Thus making Newton a device that heavily depended on the users ability to input data they already have into a new device.
c) iPhone will use elements of Mac OS X. Using GUI elements that are familiar to all OS X users. Hence minimizing the learning curve.
d) iPhone is a gadget based design, not a computer based platform…Anyone still have their Newton keyboards…I do
e) Apple learned its lesson…devices of this size are primarily data display devices…not data input.
f) The iPhone has one necessary business function built in (telephony).
We can probably go on and on and on…
Just my $0.02
The difference in the Newton and the iPhone…Steve Jobs…enough said.
It will disappoint because the phone market is basically a fashion market. New designs, new phones pop up ever 3-6 months.
Fickle consumers.
Apple can´t compete in that turnaround cycle.
I want an iPhone, but I also want to be able to have a spare battery — and also hook in to my company’s exchange server for email… i’d love to chuck this blackberry off the roof — but unless I can convince my boss to slap the IMAP option on the server it’s not gonna happen, and I won’t get the iPhone.
I also would like to get 3rd party apps for this thing… i want a mac in my pocket–for real. i want to be able to remote into macs and windows machines on the road so i can assist users, access servers, and do other tasks. I’ve almost gotten a Windows Mobile device, but the thought of my phone giving me a BSOD in the middle of a call makes my stomach sick.
If they allow 3rd party apps, a removable battery, and some sort of exchange support (3rd party app) — then i’m getting one the first day… if not, i’ll wait for gen2.
I don’t understand why everyone thinks this thinks this thing is too expensive. I have a Treo 600. It’s over 2.5 years old. If I wanted to replace it now, it would cost me $399. That’s with an additional $100 off I get since I’ve been with Verizon for 2 years. That means it $499 if I’m starting new. And the phone looks like crap, doesn’t have 4 GB of storage, can’t play videos. It’s not sexy. Apple will sell a ton of these. Why would I pay $499 for the Treo when I could pay $499 for iPhone?
I don’t think Apple wishes for everyone to have an iPhone. Nor a Mac. They do pretty well with what they’ve got. A little bit more would be great, but becoming #1 in all segments would be too much. Apple likes staying manageable. That’s the only way they can keep their niche status, which I can guarantee you they’re not willing to give up.
Apple does not want to become a Dell, a Microsoft, or a Motorola.
A Sony, though, well… maybe.
Has anyone reminded this guy that there are still Newton users around today and lots of them? People are still developing software additions to keep Newton as current as possible. There are wireless things for Newton and even Bluetooth things for Newton. That doesn’t seem like such a failure to me…
The Newton is quite capable of surfing the internet ( it has a browser) and in addition to the PC card slots for a modem there was also an apple branded external modem ( I have one). It is also quite handy for sending and receiving faxes.
The Newton was much more than an organizer. You can plug in network and modem pc cards to the Messagepad 2k models. There are people still developing software for it. I bought one on eBay 5 years ago just to see what it was about. It was too big, but it worked fine. The handwriting worked better than any sucky Palm Pilot, which I also own. It’s a myth that it was buggy or the HW didn’t work. By the end of the run it was pretty solid, and way too heavy. But it was in no way a failure except to the douchebags who insist on repeating myths and who have never even seen one, let alone used one. Oh yeah, I sold my Newton on eBay for a handsome profit. Newton, bitch!
I know I wont be able to afford one when it first comes out.
I am going to have to go with Daniel Eran (again) on this one. If buyers are prepared to pay 1500 to 2400 dollars over two years for data/voice plans, the initial cost of the phone is insignificant. It’s also plainly evident that the phone will be subsidized.
Just as every currently over priced “smart phone”.
Think
This phone is for business users. They will drop $700 if it does what they say it does, and line up for it.
Look at it another way. How many teenagers do you see with a Palm Treo?
Exactly
You hit that one out of the park. Good job.
Apple understands this market better than those saying cost will kill the iPhone do. Most companies who require out of office connectivity on some level will REIMBURSE the cost of the phone AND the service plans required to use it (at the very least partially, if not in full)!!!
The cost of the phone is competitive with other smart devices already (some are more than $600), and of course the price will drop.
Anyone who has a smartphone already has to pay for voice and data service plans, so this is a non-factor. And I’m guessing that you don’t HAVE to purchase a data plan at all, you just won’t be able to access those features on the phone, in which case yes, it becomes a very expensive cell phone.
He’s right about the price. It’s too high.
I haven’t wanted a phone as bad as the iPhone in quite a long time but even with the multi-touch I can’t bring myself to shell out $700 (CDN) for an iPod replacement (+phone) with only 8 gigs plus the month vig to Rogers.
$450-500 (~$399 US) for the 8gig and it’s too much of a device to resist.
If the price doesn’t come down for launch I’ll be waiting on multi-touch iPod.
the freakin razor was 500 bucks when it first came out…
The first star-tacs when they came out $450. There was even an ultra small version going for $950 Geez people stop whining!!! The price will come down soon enough The question is when during the falling price points are you willing to pony up for the increase in productivity this device will afford you.
$500 today is still expensive. Yeah everything has gone up in price… doesn’t mean most people are getting paid any better. I’d probably be hooked if they dropped the iPhone to $399 … hey, people have mortgages to pay!
Think said “This is not for teenagers or moms.
This phone is for business users. They will drop $700 if it does what they say it does, and line up for it.
Look at it another way. How many teenagers do you see with a Palm Treo?
Exactly”
OK, I’ll bite, no teenagers with a treo. But I have a question for you, how many teenagers are falling over themselves with lust/ envy/ desire for the iPhone? Hundreds of Thousands nation wide. The jr high and high schoolers in my district are almost wetting themselves at the thought of a cool gadget like an iPhone. Teenagers may be one of the bigger buyers of the iPhone.
Un- dirtyword- believable….. mw = many
My wife and I have 2 Newtons. One is almost 8 and the other just turned 2. Wouldn’t trade them for the world!
Not so fast. The Newt still has a strong and devoted following… I’m one of them.
Base mac: 17″ PB running Tiger
PDA: After 4 years of torturing myself with various Palm models, I picked up a Newt for $100. Now with programs like NewtSync, .Mac Sync, NCX I can keep everything in sync.
Someone said the Newt was ahead of its time…. It was WAY AHEAD of its time. Considering it was canceled in 1998:
– Ethernet Connectivity
– Bluetooth
– Wireless Internet and Networking
– Mad Max MP3 (takes forever to load a song to the Newt but works!)
Just some of the technologies that have been adapted for a device that was last produced in 1998.
Now are their limitations? Sure, but cell is for phone calls, my Ipod for music and my Newt for everything else.
In short the Newt was under appreciated. Mainly because of its early failures with hard writing recognition. Its handwriting recognition in Newton OS 1.X was shaky. However under Newton OS 2.X it blows away anything out there ten years later.
@Swing Geezer
You are right, and I’m ashamed. Perhaps you could help me with edition and reviews, hehe!!
I apologize for the error. English is not my native language…. but I’m getting better!!