Apple is poised to make one of the most impressive debuts in recent smartphone history. According to Counterpoint Research’s latest forecast, the company’s first foldable iPhone is expected to capture a remarkable 25% share of global foldable smartphone shipments in 2026 — its very first year (really, quarter) in the category — while helping propel the overall market to robust 21% year-over-year growth.
This is no ordinary product launch. In a segment long dominated by a handful of Android players, Apple is projected to debut in a clear second place, ahead of Huawei (24%) and closing the gap dramatically on market leader Samsung, whose share is forecast to decline from 40% in 2025 to 32%. Motorola and HONOR are expected to see further erosion of their positions, underscoring how Apple’s entry is poised to reshape the competitive landscape overnight.
Global Foldable Smartphone Shipment Share by OEM, 2025 vs 2026F
What makes this projection especially powerful is the nature of the demand Apple is expected to unlock. Counterpoint notes that Apple’s arrival will intensify competition specifically in the premium book-type foldable segment—the form factor that prioritizes productivity, multitasking, and expansive screen real estate over pure novelty. As AI features evolve beyond simple chat into everyday workflows such as document summarization, content editing, schedule management, and seamless cross-app information movement, a wider, more flexible canvas becomes essential. Apple’s anticipated design approach aligns perfectly with this shift, positioning the foldable iPhone as a natural extension of the company’s longstanding focus on refined user experience, seamless ecosystem integration, and premium craftsmanship.
Samsung is set to retain the overall lead for now, but the narrowing of its advantage to just seven percentage points over Apple highlights the disruptive force of Cupertino’s entry. Other brands that once held meaningful shares are projected to lose ground, illustrating how a single, highly anticipated Apple product can redefine market dynamics and accelerate category maturation.
The 21% growth forecast for the global foldable market in 2026 is itself a vote of confidence in the category’s future, and Counterpoint explicitly ties much of that expansion to Apple’s influence. By bringing its massive, loyal customer base, rigorous attention to durability and software optimization, and unmatched brand prestige into the foldable arena, Apple is expected to expand the total addressable market rather than merely redistribute existing demand. Premium book-style devices stand to benefit most, moving foldables further from experimental gadgets toward mainstream productivity tools.
For years, observers have waited for Apple’s carefully timed move into foldables. The Counterpoint numbers suggest that timing was deliberate and strategic. Rather than rushing to market, Apple appears positioned to enter with a product that not only claims a quarter of all foldable shipments in its first quarter, but also elevates the entire segment—raising expectations for design excellence, software polish, and real-world utility.
In short, 2026 is shaping up as the year the foldable smartphone market comes of age, and Apple is set to be one of its primary architects. Capturing 25% share on debut is more than a strong start; it is a clear signal that when Apple decides a category is ready, the industry—and consumers — take notice.
MacDailyNews Take: And, in 2027, if they don’t actually exceed Counterpoint’s projection and claim the crown straight off in Q226, after a mere three months on the market, Apple’s iPhone will be No.1 in foldable smartphones. Apple’s well-heeled customer base guarantees it.
As with fingerprint and facial recognition, when Apple debuts a foldable iPhone, then foldable smartphones will have been done right. – MacDailyNews, January 17, 2019
Please help support MacDailyNews — and enjoy subscriber-only articles, comments, chat, and more — by subscribing to our Substack: macdailynews.substack.com. Thank you!
Support MacDailyNews at no extra cost to you by using this link to shop at Amazon.
If Apple can keep up with demand they’ll have 50% of global foldable sales within 6 months. Samsung will only still be in the discussion because they released an identical (and superior to every Z Fold up to this point) form factor to Apple’s.