Apple, others, and U.S. stock indexes fell on Monday as investors feared that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening campaign to tamp down rampant U.S. inflation could push the country’s economy into a double-dip recession.
The main U.S. benchmarks have sold off sharply in December, putting them on course for their worst annual declines since the 2008 financial crisis, after mixed economic data and the Fed’s hawkish stance fueled worries of a recession.
Market heavyweights such as Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, and Amazon.com Inc fell more than 1% on Monday, weighed down by rising Treasury yields.
Seven of the 11 major S&P sectors were lower, with consumer discretionary, communication services, and technology leading losses.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 2.10-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and 2.35-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.
The S&P index recorded five new 52-week highs and 15 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 42 new highs and 335 new lows.
MacDailyNews Take: Once again, when certain quarters, including the Fed, delude themselves aboard the U.S.S. Transitory and waste at least a year before doing a mere portion (interest rate hikes) of what is necessary*, a price must be paid for being delusional and late.
Catching up will be difficult. But, hey, good luck on that soft landing. 🙄 – MacDailyNews, September 13, 2022
In January, Interactive Brokers founder Thomas Peterffy said of the U.S. Federal Reserve, “If they really wanted to stop inflation, they would have to raise rates to 4%, 5%, 6%.”
Peterffy may have been too conservative. Rates in excess of 6% may be required at this point. – MacDailyNews, October 13, 2022
‘Tis best to get a handle on inflation, if you know how, while you still can. – MacDailyNews, May 11, 2021
*Stop the misguided crusade against domestic energy production and profligate federal spending and inflation will be stopped dead in its tracks. It’s not difficult. – MacDailyNews, May 11, 2022
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Install a mentally-deficient establishment figurehead via stuffed drop boxes to rubber stamp destructive globalist anti-American polices, expect destructive globalist anti-American results.
Girl! You so catty! Find some peace this season. Happy Holidays!
I’ll just leave this here for you. Hope you recover soon.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/joe-biden-made-oil-trade-161100302.html
Well, it looks like MDN only got two points wrong in a mere 14 line article.
First one is the innuendo of a “double dip” recession. That’s an amazing prediction to make considering that we’ve not had the first dip.
Second one is to ignore what the Market futures were doing over this weekend, because the pre-market futures were up before the 9:30AM bell. As such, it behooves one to look at what the morning news has been that was breaking.
That breaking news is CoVid in China.
The end of their ‘zero’ policy has had a huge CoVid outbreak that’s been snowballing for the past ~week and is now just starting to make Western news.
TL;DR summary (preliminary epidemiologist assessments):
* more infectious (Ct value of ~16)
* new cases rate of doubling is now <24 hours
* expecting 500M to contract within the next six months
* … and ~1.2M dead from same.
Economically, guess what this is going to do to us via our supply chains reliances?
The “first dip” of the latest U.S. recession was in Q1 ’22 and Q2 ’22. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is a recession and will be categorized as such by the National Bureau of Economic Research when they get around to it.
The second dip is coming soon – and it could be a doozy.
Except that the NBER hasn’t made the ‘Recession’ call for 1H2022.
And while I’ll grant you that its possible that NBER might “get around to it”, current analysis & consensus is that they’re not going to make that call.
Basic reason is because Unemployment remains extremely low & was unaffected. FYI, this aligns to prior precedent of where the NBER also did not call a recession after two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
However, I don’t begrudge your point about a potential recession coming, but it isn’t due to domestic policy factors, but international ones. The good/bad news with China is that while its increasingly looking like we’re going to have a high risk to new supply chain disruptions (especially in pharmaceuticals), its also likely that a CoVid-caused recession in China will also crash their demand for oil, so we’ll benefit with cheap gas. Since energy is a big component in Inflation calculations, that decline will offset the supply chain disruption costs. Looking at oil futures, it looks like the current highs for every month in 2023 are now below $76.50 (~$80 for Brent).
As long as we have Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer leading the way, the American economy will continue this impressive move.
Well, promising billions to Africa to deter their use of coal is sure to bolster the US econ. There’s some sort of brilliance in there somewhere.