Morgan Stanley sees ‘limited risk’ to Apple App Store revenue from third-party app stores for iPhone and iPad

As part of a sweeping overhaul aimed at complying with new European Union requirements coming in 2024, Apple is preparing to allow third-party app stores on its iPhones and iPads, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

App Store

The Fly:

Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring said he views allowing third party app stores on iOS as “more bark than bite” and sees “limited risk” to App Store revenue from greater competition within iOS.

The analyst, who believes that Apple potentially appeasing EU regulators “could actually remove a long-standing overhang on Apple’s stock,” estimate a 1% revenue and 2.5% EPS hit “at worst.”

MacDailyNews Take: Morgan Stanley has an “Overweight” rating and $175 price target on Apple shares.

Those who want safety, security, and privacy will stick to Apple’s App Store, but a single point of control is always a danger, especially when it comes to capricious censorship (see: pre-Musk Twitter, Apple’s App Store in China, etc.).

iPhone and iPad users must, like Mac users, have the ability to install third-party apps; even if they never do, for it will keep Apple honest. The ability to ban an app loses all power when it’s simply available in another App Store.

These moves, including removing the mandate to use WebKit, Apple’s Safari browsing engine, in third-party browsers, as Gurman also reports Apple is considering, will greatly reduce, if not eliminate, the threat of anti-trust actions against Apple for the foreseeable future.

Also, expect Gatekeeper to come to iOS and iPadOS from macOS.MacDailyNews, December 13, 2022

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