A U.S. recession is all but unavoidable for next year, according to nearly 70% of leading economists in a new survey. A recession is a period of economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in at least two successive quarters.
Barbara Kollmeyer for MarketWatch:
Nearly 70% of 49 respondents expect the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare a recession next year, according to the FT survey conducted with the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth’s School of Business that published Sunday.
A third of those surveyed — results were gathered between June 6 and June 9 — see the NBER’s recession call holding off until the second half of next year, while about 40% see it during the first or second quarters of 2023. The survey was conducted before Friday’s U.S. consumer price inflation data which showed May headline number unexpectedly surging to a new cycle high of 8.6% year-over-year.
Colby Smith and Caitlin Gilbert for Financial Times:
Jay Powell, the Fed chair, has conceded that the central bank’s efforts to moderate inflation may cause “some pain”, leading to a “softish” landing that sees the unemployment rate rise “a few ticks”.
But many of the economists polled are concerned about a more adverse outcome given the severity of the inflation situation and the fact that monetary policy will need to shift towards much tighter settings in short order to address it.
“This is not landing a plane on a regular landing strip. This is landing a plane on a tightrope, and the winds are blowing,” said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University. “The idea that we are going to bring incomes down just enough and spending down just enough to bring prices back to the Fed’s 2 per cent target is unrealistic.”
Nearly 40 per cent of the economists warned that the Fed would fail to control inflation if it only raised the federal funds rate to 2.8 per cent by the end of the year. This would demand half-point rate rises at each of the central bank’s next three meetings in June, July and September before downsizing to its more typical quarter-point cadence for the final two gatherings of 2022.
Few respondents expect the Fed to resort to 0.75 percentage point increases.
Further rate rises are also likely well into next year, said Christiane Baumeister, a professor at the University of Notre Dame, who thinks the Fed could lift its benchmark policy rate as high as 4 per cent in 2023.
MacDailyNews Take: Sub-$130 for Apple would be a very nice deal for those who can accumulate shares for the longer term.
Stop the misguided crusade against domestic energy production and profligate federal spending and inflation will be stopped dead in its tracks. It’s not difficult. – MacDailyNews, May 11, 2022
Earlier this year, Interactive Brokers founder Thomas Peterffy said, “Inflation is 7% — 1% or 2% [in interest rate hikes] doesn’t mean anything. If they really wanted to stop inflation, they would have to raise rates to 4%, 5%, 6%.”
‘Tis best to get a handle on inflation, if you know how, while you still can. – MacDailyNews, May 11, 2021
Inflation is repudiation. — Calvin Coolidge
When a business or an individual spends more than it makes, it goes bankrupt. When government does it, it sends you the bill. And when government does it for 40 years, the bill comes in two ways: higher taxes and inflation. Make no mistake about it, inflation is a tax and not by accident. — Ronald Reagan
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Yes, U.S. Presidential elections purchased by Mark Zuckerberg have consequences.
Mules shmules! I always drive around to countless drop boxes for days on end wearing rubber gloves when I vote… once. Nothing to see here. Total malarky! Debunked! (expect the part about multiple drivers driving around to multiple drop boxes day after day… after day and night). Totally secure election! So secure, we don’t need to talk about it. As a matter of fact, if you even question the most secure election evvahh, you will get blocked and banned from YouTube, FB, Twitter and IG. Again, nothing to see here.
The only people who think the movie was debunked are the gullible and stupid. You have proven that you are both.
I don’t think you read the post carefully. The poster is clearly being sarcastic
You mean like Truth Social is banning accounts that attempt to post film of the Capitol riot, the assault on police and pictures of the crap(literally) they daubed on walls? Sort of ‘Nothing to see here’ dontcha think? In fact much like MDN censoring the truth and letting the asylum inmates vent their lies, ad hominems and imoral deceptions.
So Free Speech only for what Trump wants to promote as truth?
Oh the irony!!
You guys are pathetic. You have no defense, no honour, no moral backbone and no ability for informed debate. In other words… Anti American Deplorables. Rubes lead by a traitor.
Asylum inmates are venting their lies on MDN? Really? Don’t asylum inmates have rights, too?
“Rubes lead by a traitor.”
Just a matter of time and rather quickly, the smug self absorbed ELITIST TennerWORTHLESS would come out.
Taking perverse pleasure in mocking Trump supporters only interested in DEFENDING our freedoms, Constitution and country from the likes of woke racist far leftists like you.
That you can do, what you cannot do in a is shake the faith of MAGA supporters in a million years.
Move on little man, your petty insults don’t concern patriots fighting for this country one damn atomic particle!… 👻
Time to let go of conspiracies and rejoin reality
For someone who ignores evidence of news reports now coming out about the election fraud and cannot admit to the reality of the mess the former Vice-President Biden, his administration and Congress created, excuse me if I don’t take the advices of the galactically stupid.
Maybe if one watches Fox News and becomes galactically misinformed
When you ignorantly speak the libtard talking point of the viewing habits of others and are galactically spreading disinformation. Where is Biden’s ‘MINISTRY OF TRUTH’ when you need it? Like Biden, is it asleep at the wheel?
That is all you got? How pathetic!
You know all about “pathetic”…
Cornpop is that you?
Certainly conspiracies existed in the 2020 election. The big one designed by Democrats using unguarded, unregulated drop boxes for ballot harvesting worked beautifully.
Open your mind and watch “2,000 Miles” documentary film for FACTS and proof of widespread voter fraud. One documentary film maker is not part of the pack and thinks different producing a remarkable film and compelling case. Oh, you have not seen it?
Regarding “reality” is laughable as you repeat Democrat talking points, distributed by a complicit biased media that did not come close, to fully investigating the 2020 election with the same fervor as hanging chads in the Bush/Gore election.
So until you educate yourself to reality and the evidence slowing being revealed, preach to no one…
Break out from the Cult of Trump! Trump’s handpicked Attorney General William Barr and others tried to talk President Donald Trump out of pushing election fraud claims, to no avail. See Barr’s quotes are below:
“There was never an indication of interest in what the actual facts were.”
“I was inclined not to stay around if he wasn’t listening to advice from me or his other Cabinet secretaries.”
That is all you got? How pathetic!
Break out of the cult of Biden! Join the freedom fighters and Patriots that made USA unique, free and the greatest country and FREEDOM experiment in world history.
No “cult” involved, a thinking man’s MOVEMENT to defend America and the Constitution. Always vigilant against the minority of far-left cultists that want to pervert and permanently change the good ‘ole USA to something it is not.
Agree with Barr based on lack of concrete evidence, not enough fraud numbers to prove the election was stolen, certainly, the only prudent path for Barr or any other law enforcement official for that matter.
That said, “2,000 Mules,” noted you have not seen it, and other evidence is slowly coming out proving fraud was indeed rampant. The vessel to deliver thousands of fraudulent votes designed by Democrats for the first-time using thousands of unmonitored and insecure drop boxes is just fine with you. Even the media carried their water claiming woe and hardship excuses like Covid, voters were unable to make it to the polls doesn’t pass the laugh test.
Bears repeating — every election has fraudulent voting! Dead people voting, illegals voting, people voting several times and votes counted that violated state election guidelines. Example: Improperly cast incomplete votes just approved days ago by the courts for counting in Pennsylvania. Hey, with so much voting fraud these days, why not.
Trump has a deep gut feeling the election was stolen and thousands, if not millions, people agree and hold the same opinion. Democrats outworked Republicans and got away with widespread FRAUD. But for lack of evidence due to incalculable numbers, the media looking the other way and not assigning their Pulitzer Prize reporters to investigate – we will never know if the fraudulent numbers were great enough to overturn the election…
And what a reality it is! Look around, Country Joe! Look around! Inflation way up. Crime way up. Open border. Recession. Gas prices. Stock market way down. Home market. Food prices. The real conspiracy is how there are people who are ok with this reality. That doesn’t concern you, Country Joe?
@First Then:
Do you have nothing else to say, except repeating your pathetic memes and posting links to 2000 Mules, a movie made by a convicted felon which (according to Bill Barr) has no basis in fact whatsoever?
Maybe you have brain damage from being hit on the head during the Jan 6th insurrection…
“Insurrection.” Heh.
You’re a gullible pawn; a useful idiot.
https://twitter.com/ur1TruthDetect/status/1511810620064251918
If you really believe that on Jan 6th peaceful people were simply walking along like tourists, then not only are you gullible…you are an imbecile.
Sorry to disturb you…put your head back in the sand.
The site owners here are so deluded that they brazenly broadcast the three main tenets of the US republic:
1: that elections are fair with multiple candidates allowed to participate
2: that everyone respect the results of the election
3: that no violence ever be used to affect or retaliate in response to constitutional and legal processes
First and his few remaining brainwashed fans have openly denied facts and instead promoted treason on each of these points.
Yes, it is that serious.
Fun factoid: the Dachau concentration camp wasn’t built to house Jews. That came much later. Dachau was constructed by March 1933 to detain anyone not loyal to Hitler. By the end of 1933, the camp held over 15,000 prisoners, most of them rounded up because they were, according to the MDN terminology, “libturds”.
It is amazing how a nation once dedicated to political freedom and just rule of law can host so many gestapo-wannabe thugs drunk on the glow of their chosen narcissist in chief. Think about it, MDN.
Where is Ray Epps and why is he not locked up in the DC prison for over a year and a half like the others charged with incitement? Also, why will the Biden junta and AG Garland not answer the question, ‘How many agents or assets of the federal government were present in the crowd on Jan 5th and 6th and how many entered the Capitol?’
Self proclaimed expert on peaceful people, eh? Question: Trump’s last year in office the dreaded summer of 2020 when a dozen blue cities were sacked, citizens assaulted, looted, buildings and police cars burnt to the ground for months on end, where they peaceful protests? Last time I checked, the Capitol did not burn, only windows were broken and lasted one day for a few hours. Jan. 6 was insignificant by comparison and last time I checked, ZERO prime time hearings, government prosecutions and investigations, media breathless reporting…NOTHING.
The gold standard of double standards only woke morons can appreciate — now that’s pathetic!!…
Ring…ring….ring….ring
Inflation? Recession? This administration, combined with the Democrat’s majority control of the House and Senate, are doing a WONDERFUL job! Things have never been better. They can only get better from here! Gotta go… don’t wanna miss a single tiny second of the Insurrection Hearings!
Record inflation
Record gas prices
stock market crashing
The stupidity of liburds never ceases to amaze.
There are global factors at play here like a war in Ukraine, shutdowns in China and lingering supply chain issues related to the pandemic. The stupidity of ReTrumplicans never ceases to amaze me….
Global factors? Wouldn’t the Office of the President of the United States and the state of the United States be considered a “global factor”, too? Or the US somehow magically cruises along until all of these outside forces labeled “global factors” come along? Two years ago, the US was swimming in oil. Where did it go? Did we export it all and now it is gone… never to be replaced? Global factors? Or did the US do this to itself?
Of course Country Joe will “open his mouth” and a lot of stupid will spill out as he pathetically tries to make excuses sitting high on his perch in la-la land because, sadly, he cannot recognize reality.
https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2022/06/15/breaking-us-economy-technically-enters-recession-n1605657
is lack of leadership in the White House because some half brain dead career grifter was unfortunately put there by even more brain dead Americans with the right to vote.
https://media.patriots.win/post/NLfjiRDzovdd.jpeg
Just 148 days until the MAGA Tsunami of 2022 washes America clean of leftist liars. 🇺🇸
148 days? So looong! Just think of what Joe and his Dem pals can “do” in that time
America now has the biggest moron of a president that we’ve ever witnessed it’s hard to imagine that anyone in the future could even be half as bad as this fool. Jimmy Carter is very proud today
But, sooo many people voted for Joe! Some at 2:00am (please pass the surgical gloves). Some twice. Maybe thrice… who knows?! Luv ya, Joe!
It is not even close. Trump is worst President ever! Hopefully, there will be justice soon and he will be locked up!
“Not even close” is the BIG DEMOCRAT LIE.
Trump deployed the greatest economic policies of a first time president in HISTORY! While Biden has ZERO economic policies, oh wait, except to cancel all policies working that Trump enacted.
Reality is definitely NOT in your wheelhouse…
Not only was Joe Biden able to screw up America’s economy but his talent spread to the EU where the Euro which once had an exchange to the dollar of $1.22 – $1.25 for one Euro. It is now $1.04 for one Euro. If I didn’t have to spend my disposable income on gas and groceries, I would have taken advantage of this near parity and purchased the 3649.00 euro item and pay 150.00 dollars extra in conversion versus the $700.00 to $800.00 dollars extra in exchange before Biden came along.
President Biden is responsible for a 40 yr inflation high because of unprecedented spending/money creation. With that said, the problem solidly belongs with the Federal Reserve for long, I mean long-term devaluation of the currency. The dollar has been devalued/debased, 0ver 90% since 1913…the year the Fed was created. The Fed’s ruling over the serfs IS NOT an R or D matter.
It is the Fed that controls the fiat money supply and it serves “them,” and not the rest. Fiat’s value continues to drop. Be aware and prepare in ways you deem wise & rational.
https://media.patriots.win/post/tSXH4NIQN6U6.jpeg
Betcha do!
All those people that purchased AAPL at $140.00 thinking ‘what a great buying opportunity’!
The idiots that run this google ad filled mud pit spend all their time drinking extreme right koolaid conspiracy garbage. They never could offer any rational stock analysis. To them, it’s always a great time to buy aapl. But also according to these fools, the stock market is directly controlled by one man and if that man isn’t the orange savior, or a similar egomaniac christened by the orange savior, then the markets will plummet, and armageddon will come. Never mind that in reality, the USA is doing very well in supply-constrained times compared to most countries. The relative value of the dollar is strong, unemployment low, wages growing, and for a rare moment in history both corporate and personal savings are high. The economy is so strong the Fed was surprised and is now struggling to cool it. To do this, it will increase interest rates in an attempt to slow demand growth. This is exactly what should happen. This site will tell you it’s all bad when the Fed acts, when the overheating stock market takes a long overdue correction, or if the president wisely uses diplomacy to stop a war instead of literally blowing inflation through the roof with a hot war. No, this site can’t see the big picture.
Just wait for the cartoons, memes, insults and retweets that the idiots will use to display their detachment from reality. Mention Cook’s name and three trolls using fifteen user names will drag you and Cook through the mud.
… but this site claims to understand Apple.
WOW! A new benchmark for BRAINLESS has been achieved…
https://www.tiktok.com/@hwfaithfit/video/7103136944904916270?referer_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Feconomics%2Fwere-barely-making-it-furious-farmer-goes-viral-explaining-why-food-prices-are-going-go&referer_video_id=7103136944904916270&refer=embed