Tesla stock could be walloped by the Apple car – analyst

Roth Capital Partners analyst Craig Irwin warns that Tesla bulls should fear the arrival of the Apple’s electric vehicle, among other things.

vehicle under wraps

Brian Sozzi for Yahoo Finance:

“The biggest catalyst over the next couple of years will be the launch of the Apple car in 2024. But it will be like Porsche launch, you’ll see Apple announce something in the $10,000 to $20,000 range and then look to crush numbers the way Porsche does. The technology in the car I expect to be amazing. [Typical of Apple],” said Irwin, a Tesla bear, on Yahoo Finance Live.

Irwin has a $150 price target on Tesla’s stock, suggesting an 81% plunge from current levels.

Speculation on the Apple car has quieted down of late after reports of its existence surfaced in December 2020.

The tech giant reportedly could start production on its own electric vehicle as early as 2024, according to reports at the time. The car may be powered by a “breakthrough” monocell battery design that offers up greater range than traditional electric vehicle batteries.

But Irwin adds Tesla faces other near-term risks in the form of increased competition from traditional automakers going all in on electric.

MacDailyNews Take: Tesla’s current valuation is basically more than the rest of the vehicle makers combined, so the probability is high that it’s overvalued.

Now, did Irwin misspeak when he said he expects Apple to announce something in the $10,000 to $20,000 range? Did he instead mean $100,000 to $200,000 range, which is much more in the line with Porsche? If so, Apple would be competing with top-end Tesla models (i.e. not with the Model 3, Model Y, or CyberTruck, which is expected to start around $39,900 as per Motor Trend).

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  1. Very possible, if Apple follows its rules for introduction of a first major new-category product. This thinking is the Steve Jobs 2.0 influence he left in DNA 🧬 (1) Leverage an existing success. Car will be deeply connected to iPhone, even if Android users excluded. (2) Make new product impossible (or very difficult) for competitors to match, through innovation. (3) Succeed through undeniable advantages over completion.

    Apple has done it over and over AFTER the bad old days, when Steve Jobs returned and canceled stuff like Newton, which violated all three rules, and Mac OS licensing, which was opposite of 2 and 3. He focused Apple on winning by mitigating risk of losing.

    The first translucent iMac leveraged the remaining still-loyal Mac users. iPod initially rewarded Mac users, growing both iPod and Mac sales, then exploded into Windows world through iTunes. iTunes Store then became became largest music retailer. iPhone launched as world’s best iPod (plus phone and Internet access) through huge installed base of iTunes to control syncing and updates (unlike other smartphones). iPad started with large library of apps and existing developers, thanks to running iOS like iPhone. Watch is an extension of the iPhone user experience, helping both Watch and iPhone sales. Same with AirPods, which like Watch, succeed while intentionally limiting potential customer base.

    That’s why Apple consistently succeeds. The competition often copies Apple, but they start off with none of Apple’s carefully planned advantages. For Car, it must be more convenient than gas-powered (including hybrid) cars. The top inconvenience is charging an electric car. That’ll be the innovation, and it’ll be more than a better battery. Car won’t be just another Tesla, just as iPhone wasn’t another smartphone with tiny keyboard and stylus.

  2. If Apple enters high, it would not be unlike the Apple Watch entry. And each consecutive year the Watch stayed in the lineup, dropping in price, while the new one held price and added features.

    Granted, a vehicle would not update every single year to the level of tech gadgets, but this is ONE of Apple’s entrant models.

    The model I am hoping Apple adopts is iPad. Jobs built the notion it would launch at a minimum of $999 (salting Mossberg with that idea), and the rest of the tech media figured it couldn’t be done for anything less.

    Jobs showed off the iPad starting at $499, selling en mass.

    For a vehicle? Yah, much, much, more difficult to price and launch economies of scale on day one, maybe impossible at this point.

    Lastly, I would LOVE to see Apple go Nuclear. Deliver 3 distinct vehicles at launch, not just one.

    Sports Car: Riivaling that of the Corvette or upcoming Tesla Roadster. Sitting in an aggressive $100k range or so…
    CUV: All the rage in that Model 3/Mustang Mach-e format size, but undercutting the competition in price, range and capability.
    3-Row Mid-Size SUV: This market is just massive – massive – and Apple could built margin and volume into this space.

    And in all 3 vehicles, what is most critical? Not range per charge, but rather, speed per charge. If Apple can revolutionize how quickly an EV can charge (say 200 miles in 10-15 minutes) suddenly, I don’t care so much about how far per charge, as that multi-hour sit around waste of time is eliminated. I don’t know how far each tank of gas goes in my current car because I don’t care. When it gets low I fill it. Big deal. If EV’s can get “close” to that, then range doesn’t matter nearly as much, and smaller battery stacks can greatly lower the price.

    People don’t have range anxiety, they truly have charge anxiety, which is why they start looking for long-range per-charge as a work-around.

  3. The 10 cheapest cars in America today are:
    1. 2020 Chevrolet Spark LS, $14,395
    2. 2020 Mitsubishi Mirage ES, $14,990
    3. 2020 Nissan Versa S, $15,655
    4. 2020 Hyundai Accent SE, $16,270
    5. 2020 Toyota Yaris L Sedan, $16,605
    6. 2020 Kia Rio LX, $16,815
    7. 2020 Honda Fit LX, $17,120
    8. 2019 Fiat 500 Pop, $17,990
    9. 2020 Hyundai Venue SE, $18,490
    10. 2020 Kia Soul LX, $18,610

    No way the first  car competes with them.

    1. Some of those car makers listed above also build far more expensive, well built and prized models. What does it tell you? These car makers know how to build, sell inexpensive (not necessarily cheap) cars and and make money. Something Apple might learn from this?

  4. Irwin may have been referring to the initial production number of the entry-level Apple model – – 10,000 to 20,000 units – – rather than the range of its retail price. From the Yahoo Finance report:

    “CRAIG IRWIN: So the biggest catalyst over the next couple of years is going to be the launch of the Apple car. 2024, but it’s going to be kind of like the Porsche launch for the Taycan, right? You’ll see them announce something probably in the 10,000, 20,000 range. And then look to crush numbers the way Porsche does. The technology in that car I expect to also be amazing, bleeding edge technology, typical of Apple.”

  5. I look forward to Apple reinventing the car charging port, then working with other port makers to come up with a better solution for all, then abandoning that type as a newer updated version of the most popular style comes out, only to then come up with an even better one!!

    Go Apple!!

    (and Welcome to Texas, Tesla!)

  6. Beyond the charging port, someone, maybe Apple, needs to come up with a drastically improved “battery.” The tech is the biggest obstacle for broad EV adoption. It makes the “go EV urgency” nothing but illogical…unless one thinks tearing up the earth for lithium, copper and various rare earth metals for a compromised “Green” solution.

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