Fed official: U.S. unemployment may not return to Trump lows

The U.S. unemployment rate may not return to the more than half-century lows recorded under former President Donald Trump, according to Esther George, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

Esther George, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Esther George, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Jonathan Garber for FOXBusiness:

The national unemployment rate is currently at 5.4%, a pandemic-era low, but remains elevated from the 3.5% that was reached under Trump. Many workers remain on the sidelines due to generous unemployment benefits, the closing of schools and day care, and fears over the virus.

The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate calls for the central bank to achieve maximum employment and price stability. However, the central bank last year said it would allow inflation to run above its 2% target “for some time” in order to achieve its employment objective. The Fed as recently as 2019 thought a 4.1% unemployment rate represented “full employment.”

That was until Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation helped the U.S. economy, before the pandemic, achieve its lowest unemployment rate since the 1950s. The policies helped achieve record low unemployment for Asians, Blacks and Hispanics.

Workers have been returning to the labor market amid a reopening of the economy, but policies put in place by the Biden administration have limited job gains.

Biden extended the extra $300 per week in supplemental unemployment benefits until September, something Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted is having an impact on people returning to work.

Other Biden policies, like the president’s assault on the oil industry, are also impacting the labor market.

Oil-producing states like Texas (6.2%), New Mexico (7.6%) and Alaska (6.6%) all have unemployment rates well above the 5.4% national average as Biden’s policies have limited production and increased reliance on OPEC.

MacDailyNews Take: Well, that 3.5% U.S. unemployment figure was a 50-year record low; beyond “full employment,” so it’d be very difficult to achieve under current conditions and policies. Obviously, the U.S is Apple’s largest market, by far, so the health of the U.S. economy is very important to the company.


  1. The article says it all.

    In a nutshell, regardless of personality the reality is Trump’s economic policies were some of the best, if not the very BEST for a U.S. president in history.

    While Biden’s are some of the WORST and steadily declining we still have to survive the next 3+ years. No signs of getting better regardless of the props from the sycophant mainstream media protecting Biden and simply ignoring most negative reports.

    Landslide first in 2022 and then in 2024…

    1. Landslide first in 2022 and then in 2024…

      Unless Democrats federalize elections and codify the ballot-stuffing methods they used to steal the 2020 U.S. Presidential election and the January 2021 Georgia Senate runoffs.

      1. Hope you don’t mind, took a chance mimicking your famous moniker variants. I was betting you would find it complimentary.

        That said, you are absolutely correct. Federalizing national elections and blowing off the U.S. Constitution is is a bullheaded, tone deaf, 100% partisan attempt by Demonrats to federalize and control elections in their favor only God knows for how long.

        Most likely the most dangerous bill ever proposed by Democrats in history and must NOT PASS!!!…

    2. Trump’s 3.5% unemployment was a product of 8 years of smart economic recovery efforts and a solid foundation built by the previous administration. (Who was that again?) Trump squandered it with a COVID response built on denial.

      What we have today, once again, is a “Biden” administration cleaning up after a reckless Republican.

        1. Not really. The basic facts of the matter are that achieving a rate of unemployment below ‘full employment’ requires an aberrationally long expansion period.

          Trump accomplished that (temporarily) by abusing Keynesian economic principles by excessive Federal deficit spending during said expansion to get an extra 2 years out of the expansion.

          But by mid-2019, his gambit had run out: as his 2017 corporate tax cuts had run their course (thus why the DJIA & SP500 were down in 2018) and the US economy had started to turn, starting in the manufacturing segment.

          That’s why gasoline prices peaked in May 2019 ($2.946/gal), and by Dec 2019, had fallen by 30 cents ($2.645/gal).

          Check it yourself by Googling [2019 manufacturing recession]: there’s ample news articles in the financial press. For example, at businessinsider:

          “Trump pledged to revive the manufacturing sector. But it just fell deeper into a recession” – Gina Heeb Dec. 2, 2019, 11:45 AM

          That headline was because the US Manufacturing segment met the ‘2 consecutive quarters’ criteria and was officially in a recession … in 2019. Before CoVid.

          For the general public’s perception, this economic downturn just wasn’t evident yet, as jobs are a lagging indicator, and the Service industry was holding up the rest of the economy.

          By this point, a market correction & layoffs were inevitable, but then CoVid happened and all of this was blamed …incorrectly… on it being just CoVid.

      1. Uh no. Trump did the opposite of Obama. Or are you forgetting Obama’s below 2% growth rate as the new normal? 8 years of Obama could best be described as malaise. Obamacare made it difficult for businesses to hire full time employees. His anti-business rhetoric was a wet blanket to entrepreneurs. Cash for clunkers was a junker. And the stimulus for shovel ready projects was a shovel full of manure.

        The American spirit survived in spite of Obama, not because of him.

        1. My God you are partisan CLUELESS and IGNORANT of facts!

          Thanks for the chart it shows the following from the article:

          “That was until Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation helped the U.S. economy, before the pandemic, achieve its lowest unemployment rate since the 1950s.”

          We all know you did not read the article.

          Thanks again, the chart spike also shows, unbeknownst to you, this little thing called a Covid Pandemic in 2020. Hello? Any light on upstairs??

          Worthless discussing economic REALITY you are simply another useful FOOL TOOL of what is heading towards the worst economic administration is history.

          Sorry sonny, your TV dinner is now cold…

      2. Wow!

        Congrats! You get a Gold Medal for the most clueless and false post of economic recovery I have ever read.

        I’m not going to waste my time BURYING you with government statistics the last three three administrations because it is POINTLESS. Trying to STEAL credit for the Demonrat Team with two feckless administrations obviously you have no problem living with LIES and FALSEHOODS.

        Go home sonny, Mom’s frozen TV dinner is almost ready…

  2. Stuck in the Democrat tax/regulate/spend, spend, spend swamp, there is no way that the U.S. economy will ever be able to hit President Trump’s record low unemployment numbers.

      1. We all know the UC11 number under Obama looked better than it really was because a lot of people stopped looking for work because of the limping economy. The second fact that the graph does not show are the types of jobs that people got. A better graph is to look at real wage growth.

        Even without those two factors, the top line unemployment number under Obama only returned to the per recession number. There was no expansion or investment that drove kitchen table economics like Trump’s economy.

        1. Put another way: The Obama/Biden administration recovered from the worst economic conditions since the Great Depression and reduced unemployment by 5%. Trump’s administration followed the graph and shaved just another 1.5% off the already great Obama/Biden numbers.

        2. 1.5 percentage points is a 33% reduction, math illiterate.

          President Trump’s policies reduced unemployment some 33% from Obama’s anemic over-regulated, over-taxed economy.

          President Trump achieved 50-year lows in U.S. unemployment.

        3. “Well, if you want to play that math game, Obama cut unemployment in half”

          Yeah, with temporary low wage workers. Big effin’ deal.

          Trump is the 50-year low employment number King of Economics. You hate that REALITY, I know…

        4. Just shaved off “another 1.5%” because of the greatest economic policies in history? Partisan no brain, we’ll take it any day of the week a 50-year RECORD you admitted. We do not need your approval for Trump’s success dwarfing Obama and currently beating Biden and his false bloviating spin.

          From the article you did not read:

          “The national unemployment rate is currently at 5.4%, a pandemic-era low, but remains elevated from the 3.5% that was reached under Trump.”

          Deny that!!

          Time for bed, sonny…

  3. When Trump was in office, the media was fixated on the election, Russia, BLM, Gay rights, the pandemic, & the left just wanted to impeach him.

    Biden comes in & media still focuses on trump, & proactive ignores the disaster Biden created within months but highlights his scripted one liners. And all the lefties are all hush hush.

  4. I hope you libturds are finally feeling your stupidity, because Americans sure are.

    Everyone that voted for the corrupt, racist dementia patient and whore should be institutionalized for mental illness.

  5. Obama, years ago: ‘”Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up.”

    Obama urged Biden not to run, as he was concerned he would “embarrass himself.”

    Now, all of America is embarrassed.

    You FINALLY had a guy they didn’t own and the establishment spent 4+ years brainwashing the country to believe he was the enemy.

    The establishment is the enemy.

    Turns out that U.S. Presidential elections purchased by Mark Zuckerberg have consequences.

    1. Funny, I didn’t see that on CNN or MSNBC.

      I’m just guessing that they ignored it because I don’t watch Democrat propaganda masquerading as “news.”

      Former President Donald Trump slammed the US withdrawal from Afghanistan as “the greatest foreign policy humiliation in the history of the United States of America” during a rally in Alabama on Saturday.

      Trump ripped President Biden for allowing “weakness in the White House,” saying that, Vietnam looks like a Masterclass in strategy compared to Joe Biden’s catastrophe.”

      “This will go down as one of the great military defeats of all time and it did not have to happen that way,” Trump said to his supporters. “This was not a withdrawal, this was a total surrender, for no reason.”

      “He surrendered our airbase, he surrendered our weapons, he surrendered our embassy,” Trump said.

      He criticized the billions of dollars worth of arms and equipment that were left behind and seized by the Taliban, possibly including 600,000 assault rifles, some 2,000 armored vehicles and 40 aircraft, including Black Hawks, according to reports.

      “It didn’t have to happen. All [Biden] had to do was leave the soldiers until everyone was out, our citizens, the weapons, and then you bomb the hell out of the bases and say ‘bye bye,’” Trump said.

      He said after 20 years of conflict, his administration determined it was time for US troops to leave Afghanistan, but to depart “in dignity.”

      “Very soon we’re going to have September 11 and we’re going to have — because of Biden — the Taliban flag flying over the embassy.”

      “With me in office the Taliban would not have ever dreamt of capturing our airfield or parading around with our American weapons,” he said.


  6. Recently posted:

    “Tragic mess in Afghanistan, a completely open and broken border, crime at record levels, oil prices through the roof, inflation rising, and taken advantage of by the entire world — DO YOU MISS ME YET?”
    Donald Trump

  7. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which measures prices, increased 4.2% in the 12-month period between August 2020 and July 2021, according to a Department of Commerce report published Friday. The index spiked 3.6%, the report showed.

    The last time consumer prices increased this much in one year was more than three decades ago in January 1991.

  8. The first photo has been released of the Navy Corpsman killed by Joe Biden.

    Navy Hospital Corpsman Max Soviak, 22, was a native of Berlin Heights, Ohio.

    Max was killed at the Abbey gate of the Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul on the deadliest day for U.S. troops in Afghanistan since August of 2011.

    R.I.P., Max Soviak

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