JPMorgan: President Trump victory most favorable outcome for stock market

U.S. investment bank JPMorgan expects the S&P500 index to surge 12.6% to 3,900 points if the re-election of U.S. President Donald Trump occurs next week, calling such an outcome the most favorable for stock markets. JPM said in a note to clients on Monday, “We see an ‘orderly’ Trump victory as the most favorable outcome for equities.”

U.S. President Donald Trump, with First Lady Melania Trump stands with Amy Coney Barrett and her husband Jesse Barrett on the balcony of the White House on October 26, 2020. (photo: Tom Brenner/Reuters)
U.S. President Donald Trump, with First Lady Melania Trump stands with Amy Coney Barrett and her husband Jesse Barrett on the balcony of the White House on October 26, 2020. (photo: Tom Brenner/Reuters)

Reuters:

JPMorgan said several of its data gatherings, such as voter registration, Twitter sentiment, point to a “tightening race”. The bank sees a gridlock in the election as a “net positive” for stocks. The odds of a “blue wave” have narrowed slightly since mid-October.

Within sectors, JPM sees beaten down energy and financial stocks to likely be key beneficiaries of a Trump victory, while a Biden win could trigger a rotation from U.S. growth stocks to non-U.S. growth stocks, given the risk of higher taxes.

“We find that energy, financials and healthcare sectors could likely see the most outsized moves as they have been explicitly referenced by each candidate on the campaign trail,” the bank added.

MacDailyNews Note: In the U.S., Election Day 2020 is Tuesday, November 3rd. More info about U.S. Voting and Elections: https://www.usa.gov/voting

49 Comments

  1. Mark my words:

    This 2020 race is over.

    The internals are getting even stronger for Trump and the GOP.

    President Trump will be re-elected and the Senate majority will likely increase by at least a seat.

    Really, the only question in 2020 is how long are Trump’s coattails and will they sweep through a sea change in the House, too.

    First Then, October 22, 2020

    See you on November 4th! 😀

      1. “The only silver lining in all of this is that media outlets are so desperate to help Biden win that they’re not even pretending anymore. No pretense. There’s great clarity in that. ”

        Glen Greenwald (very non-right)

        1. The Trumpist platform is wishful thinking. You are not even close to being Republicans anymore.

          Open markets became tariff wars under Trump.

          Personal responsibility became victim mentality under Trump.

          Lack of fiscal responsibility became even less fiscal responsibility under Trump with a debt doesn’t matter mentality.

          You guys are deluded and I will not waste time arguing with you anymore. We will simply use your tools to reverse the Trump nightmare and head forward again.

          1. “You are not even close to being Republicans anymore.”

            You are not even close to being Democrats anymore
            .
            The most extreme INTOLERANT LEFTISTS have taken over and essentially destroyed the reasonable party of the JFK era.

            I too, will not waste time arguing with someone who clearly does not understand the present reality both parties are night and day different from years ago…

      2. The more I think about it, maybe Joe could use his skills with the Chinese to strengthen the market. Trump obviously doesn’t have the same working relationship with the Chinese, so….

    1. @ first then never – I am marking your words. It was over last year. The 2016 Electoral College loves Trump, but the Americans hate him! Trump was the first president to never rise above 50% in the polls. His only chance he has is if Amy Coney Barrett appoints him against the will of the public.
      As far as the stock market is concern, it may go up or down after a new president is announced, but in the long run, the stock market will be most favorable after a Biden win.

    2. Yes. It is over. Trump will win by a landslide. The leftist media has learned nothing in 4 years, as has the media. Its a question of the Senate. If that stays Republican, and given the eternal gift of Harry Reid, the staunchest Republican in recent history, the courts will be absolutely dominated by Trump appointees as never before seen. Reid is responsible for 3 Trump Justices. Reid is responsible for countless Circuit Judes. Reid is responsible for countless federal judges. A gift. Trump should give him the Medal of Freedom, then kick his lib shit ass down the stairs of the Supreme Court building, maybe fuckup his other eye.

      1. Harry Reid was not responsible for the politization of our formerly nonpartisan judiciary. Less than four years ago, the Chief Justice could still credibly say, “We do not have Republican judges or Democratic judges.” He could still say it today, but it wouldn’t be credible. For at least a generation, we will be saddled with federal judges who toe the Federalist Society and Heritege Foundation party line on every issue, and who will be in open conflict with the elected branches of government as often as not. Curious how legislating from the bench by activist judges is perfectly acceptable to Alleged Conservatives when they are the beneficiaries.

    1. Oh, my God!

      That’s sad, even if he is a pervy rapist who’s been selling access to and profiting from the offices to which citizens entrusted him for 47 years.

      Jill Biden and the DNC should be arrested for elder abuse.

  2. History shows, the market cares fairly little about who occupies the WH. With that said, there is a, approximate 5% avg lead for the D’s. The R’s were in office during the two strongest markets in history, but they also presided during the “winning” worst.

    To no fault of anyone in the current line-up, the US’s habit of debt for decades has been severely complicated by Covid…so, the “rules” and historical market patterns maybe thrown out the window going forward. We’ve entered into an arena we’ve never been before, so speaking from experience is almost impossible. Say hello to MMT and everything it beholds.

  3. I am a political moderate. My father was a Republican and my mother is a Democrat. I know that there are some political trolls on this website who may choose to attack my comments here, but to them I ask the question, “How can your candidate win, if you don’t appeal to moderates?” — regardless of what you see in the media, the majority of voters are moderates . . . Here is what I see in the ‘real world.’ In recent months I have been in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. Everywhere I see small businesses that have closed. I see numerous apartment buildings with “vacancy” signs (as people have moved back home to live with their parents) . . . We already ‘are’ in the middle of a recession/depression, but all ‘accounting’ practices have been put on hold as the 2 parties are in the middle of an election campaign . . . But once 2021 arrives, you will wish it was 2020. If you thought 2008 was bad, 2021 will bring a whole new level of ugly. In Las Vegas, they estimate that they could have 100,000 evictions in the next 6 months. Where are those people going to go? Try living in your car (if you have one) when it’s 110 degrees outside. In a consumer-based economy, who is going to eat at your restaurant, if your customers have no money, or owe thousands of dollars in “back rent” to their landlords . . . It is an impossible situation . . . so when you look at Donald Trump, who hasn’t even been able (still) to provide enough N95 masks to hospitals, how do you think he will handle the 2021 economic collapse? — “Oh, I have put Jared Kushner in charge of it. He’ll fix it” . . . so for anyone who thinks this is a “Trump vs Biden” election, you are mistaken. This election and your vote is an answer to this question: “Do you want Trump running the country when we are in the middle of the biggest economic collapse in U.S. History?”

    1. I certainly don’t want a bunch of leftists using an old dementia puppet to hike taxes so they can transfer trillions of dollars to 3rd world countries in exchange for unicorn fart credits, that’s for sure. Throwing open the borders to all comers, socialist “healthcare,” the moronic Green New Deal, etc. is the perfect recipe for financial ruin.

      Your problem is that you don’t understand which candidate appeals to “moderates,” but you might finally figure it out on Nov. 4th.

      By the way, Trump brought the U.S. to record low unemployment, so of course we want him charting the way back from the COVID overreaction. Obama-Biden presided over the slowest, most anemic “recovery” in U.S. history. Obama-Biden, the do-nothing fools, thought Trump would need “to wave a magic wand” to achieve that. Obama-Biden, the great planners, who left hundreds of judicial appointments open for Trump and McConnell to happily fill, achieving a Conservative judiciary for a generation.

      And, Jared Kushner is busy being instrumental in bringing peace to the Middle East.

      1. Stop with the extreme (and fabricated) talking points, Fwhatever. You cannot possibly believe that “Democrats” want to just “throw open the borders to all comers,” as if that is the only possible alternative to Trump’s wall. Do you listen to your own words? Do you (or Trump) realize how offensive it is when you say things like “Democrats hate America,” “Democrats want to destroy America,” and things like that. You are falsely and intentionally disparaging tens of millions of people. Why does the GOP – and Trump in particular – feel the need to create a domestic political enemy out of at least half of the country?

        I was going to write a lot more in this post, but then I remembered why I seldom visit MDN anymore. I recalled that my old online friends no longer visit this forum, either, and that the joy we had discussing the future of the Mac (and later, the iPhone and iPad) is no longer possible on MDN.

        Fwhatever, you are free to believe whatever you want, no matter how misguided or foolish. But your little experiment with Tyrannical Trump and Moscow Mitch is nearing its end and the country somehow survived and is now fighting back. You are doomed to long term disappointment.

    2. The preference for Trump by many in the financial industry reveal their amoral greed. Even a Trump win were to somehow stimulate a rise in the stock stock market, his policies and behavior have been ruinous for the country and have benefitted only himself, his rich cronies and others of their ilk. We need a president who cares for everyone, the environment, and our friends and allies.

      1. “his policies and behavior have been ruinous for the country and have benefitted only himself”

        No time for false fantasies and fairy tale OPINIONS that only work on yourself.

        Learn how to read government statistics free from political bias and educate yourself on REALITY…

  4. Your question clearly implies an answer…to which you offer no rationale (mask supply is a weak attempt). In addition, you offer no support why his opponent would be superior, even though you intimate so.

    A reasonable follow-up offered in the same generic and presumptuous manner would be;

    Do you want Joe Biden running the country when we are in the middle of the biggest economic collapse in U.S. History?”

    You would do well to remember, this is a World-wide pandemic and a WW econ challenge. The Virus came at a time that the WW econ was in bubble formation and susceptible. Jim Cramer and people of his ilk aren’t likely to make note of it, but the Virus was the pin that did what pins do to bubbles. To think that any one person is to adroitly conquer what we’re experiencing involves some dreaming. Regardless of who, the winner is going to need a lot of near supernatural strength to tangle with what’s ahead, imo.

  5. You would do well to know this an annual flu. Like the kind we get every year. Except this one only harms people who are already close to death from other causes. And people who kill themselves because they live in a state with a Democrat governor, or one who acts like a Democrat, like Mike DeWine of Ohio, and they are tired of the idiot governor killing their lives and their business.

    1. Speaking of COVID-19, in the Democrat-run states, death rates per 100,000 residents are 40 percent higher than in Republican-led states, according to a new study by AEI.

      Of the first 210,529 deaths in the US from COVID-19, only 32,846 took place in Republican-led states.

      Another reason on an endless list not to vote for the doddering Democrat dementia patient.

    2. Imagine if Franklin Roosevelt had announced that December 7, 1941 was a date that would soon be forgotten because we were obviously turning the corner in our relations with the Greater Southeast Asia Coprosperity Sphere. The Japanese threat would just go away like a miracle as soon as warm weather arrived. We had a plan, but nobody was allowed to see it until its formal unveiling in two weeks (repeating a promise first made two weeks before March 20, 1933). As for the almost 3000 dead at Pearl Harbor, “It is what it is,” “Admiral Kimmel and General Short are both Republicans,” and “Men who volunteer for the Navy are suckers who shouldn’t complain when their ship sinks.”

      1. The issue is not your leftist fantasy DEFLECTION tale of coulda, woulda, shoulda that has ZERO meaning to the article and 2020 election.

        Please try to keep up with current events..,

        1. The relevant current event is that—while Mr. Trump continues to lie about the threat—not a single state has reported fewer COVID-19 cases this week than last. Several are at all-time highs. That isn’t just due to additional testing; the percentage of positive tests, hospitalizations, and deaths are also rising in many more places than the few where they are falling. That reality is devastating the economy as much as if FDR had chosen to downplay World War II.

          1. Your posts duplicate the mainstream media and seems both of you are rooting for Democrats. That’s all we hear day in and day out cases are rising specifically designed to damage the president. What you do not hear day in and day out is the death rate is less than 1% and 80% of deaths are elderly people over 60 with pre-existing health conditions. Also not heard day in and day out is deaths have gone down steadily since May, particularly in the summer and I don’t read that fact in your post. I do read a cherry picked fact for the last couple weeks there has been a slight uptick in deaths as predicted by the good doctor in the Spring part of a natural cycle, similar to the flu.

            1. As the President’s Chief of Staff observed, “We aren’t going to control this thing. We just need to lean to live with it.” Harry Hopkins continued, “If the Japanese do take Hawaii, there’s no big loss. It’s just a territory so they can’t vote for President. Besides, most of the casualties will be Asian-Pacific, not white Americans. We can always throw them some paper towels.”

  6. JP is correct, of course, but most people do not live inside the markets so there would be a downtick for most people which is bad for them and good for Wall St. So I root for most people, not for those who pruriently pull the levers of oppressive and vindictive power.

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