Replacement of aging smartphones will drive a market recovery in 2021

Much of 2020 will be a lost year for the global smartphone market, as many people hang onto their aging smartphones; although the year is expected to end stronger than it is currently amid the now-slowly-easing COVID-19 lockdowns, thanks mainly to the launch of Apple’s first 5G iPhones.

Based on a smartphone survey conducted in March, analysts at UBS believe 2021 holds more promise for the global smartphone market for one big reason — aging phones.

Replacement of aging smartphones will drive a market recovery in 2021. Leaks purport a Navy Blue iPhone 12 Pro
Leaks purport a Navy Blue iPhone 12 Pro with 5G capability is coming this fall

Barbara Kollmeyer for Barron’s:

[The survey] showed cellphone purchase plans over the next 12 months dropping from 67% a year ago to 62% in China, where the economic impact of the virus was already hitting. Elsewhere, it’s still early days to see how much mobile shopping consumers will be willing to do, says a team of analysts led by David Mulholland.

Mulholland said 2020 will likely see a 14% drop in demand, which he describes as “significant,” but adds that the survey “lends support for our view that demand can snap back quickly in 2021.” He estimates a 12% gain from the rising age of devices creating some pent-up demand…

The survey showed purchase intent in China for Apple’s iPhones stabilizing after a multiyear downtrend, and improving in both the U.K. and the U.S. Apple is one of their preferred stocks in the mobile sector… “Both Apple and Android smartphones supply chain stocks have rallied in recent weeks suggesting a limited impact for the COVID,” noted the analysts.

MacDailyNews Take: In late March, Bloomberg News reported that Apple’s next-generation 5G iPhones remain on schedule to launch this autumn. And that will unleash an epic super cycle of iPhone upgrades!

Yes, more than ever, the world needs Apple’s annual iPhone cycle. And we bet the world will get it, too. With “iPhone 5G,” the multi-year Mother of all iPhone Super Cycles will finally be here this autumn!MacDailyNews, March 27, 2020

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