iPhone intent to upgrade survey suggests demand to outpace expectations; 1-in-5 Android users plan on upgrading to iPhone

“Our most recent U.S. iPhone intent to upgrade survey suggests demand for the next iPhone cycle will slightly outpace investor expectations,” Gene Munster and Will Thompson write for Loup ventures. “The survey supports our modeling, which calls for 3% iPhone unit growth in FY19 vs. Street expectations of flat (0%) unit growth.”

“Heading into next month’s iPhone announcement, we surveyed 530 U.S. consumers regarding their intent to purchase the upcoming phones,” Munster and Thompson write. “This survey showed a surprisingly high intent to upgrade, suggesting 48% of current iPhones owners intent to upgrade to a newer iPhone in the next year, compared to 25% in June of last year.”

“This 48% is an outlier, and therefore should be tempered (intent to buy vs. actual purchase conversion varies cycle to cycle), but the survey is nonetheless a positive indicator of upcoming iPhone demand,” Munster and Thompson write. “19% of Android users surveyed indicated they plan on switching to an iPhone in the next year, compared to 12% last year… There is greater interest in this upcoming iPhone cycle than we had anticipated.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: An iPhone tsunami is gathering strength. 🙂

Overheard from the very near future: “Your iPhone still has a Home button? (laughs) Oh, you poor dear!”

Moving to an iPhone X gesture UI by removing the antiquated Home button will unleash a massive wave of upgrades from iPhone users and iPhone wannabe users alike! (The same goes for iPad Pro, on a significantly smaller scale.)

Apple’s new iPhones will bring biggest changes in a decade – August 29, 2018
How Apple’s next-gen iPhone lineup could drive unit sales growth – August 28, 2018
Apple’s next-gen iPhone lineup projected to achieve best performance since iPhone 6/Plus supercycle – August 28, 2018


  1. Meanwhile in a contemporaneous study: 20% of Mac users are considering switching to Windows/Linux and 10% are definitely switching to Windows/Linux within the next six months. Reason given? While macOS may be the best the hardware is three months to two years behind the leading edge on the first day the hardware ships, and Mac hardware gets upgrades so seldom and irregularly.

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