Revenue estimates for Apple’s September quarter are too high

“Apple reports its June quarter results after the market closes on Tuesday,” Chuck Jones writes for Seeking Alpha. “While the past quarter’s results shouldn’t be overlooked investors will be very focused on the September quarter’s [fiscal Q417] guidance. The availability dates for new iPhones and how much supply Apple management believes it can produce (and especially for the high-end iPhone 8) will be major factors in determining what revenue guidance they will be willing to provide. It should surprise no one that it will be a conservative forecast.”

“Sell-side analysts are projecting September quarter revenue of $49.2 billion which is down from $50.8 billion in late May,” Jones writes. “It also would not surprise me that expectations are at or below $49 billion given the concerns about when the iPhone 8 will launch and how many will be available in the first week or two.”

MacDailyNews Take: Or, in the first month or two – or three!

“While new iPhones have been launched and available for the September quarter the past five years I am using the past three years to get a read on what guidance is more likely to be. For this timeframe September quarter’s revenue guidance vs. June’s guidance has been 4.1%, 6.4% and 10.7% higher, respectively, with the average for the three years coming in at 7.1%,” Jones writes. “To be a bit on the conservative side I believe revenue guidance should come in at a range of $46 to $48 billion vs. $49.2 billion.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: The bar is likely set low enough on the quarter ahead of next-gen iPhones, that even weak guidance will be shrugged off.

We’ll also be very interested to see how iPad performed in unit sales given that Q317 was the first full quarter of $329 iPad availability.

The company will announce results that day after market close, typically right around 1:30pm PDT / 4:30pm EDT. As always, we’ll bring your the results as soon as they are available (simply check our home page at 4:30pm EDT today). We plan to cover the conference call with live notes as usual. That link will appear on our home page around 4:45pm EDT today.

Key trends to watch in Apple’s Q317 earnings report – July 28, 2017
Analysts expect Apple to give cautious guidance with Q317 report on August 1st – July 21, 2017
Will Apple’s August 1st earnings report finally deliver some good news for iPad? – July 13, 2017
Apple to release Q317 earnings, webcast live conference call on August 1st – July 6, 2017


  1. Why speculate; “Sell side analysts” or indeed “Buy side analysts” are only interested in “churn”, or getting punters/investors to buy and/or sell APPL stock, nothing else.

    The only important and canny thing for an investor to do is to believe in Apple Inc., buy and hold the stock of this stellar company that other players have been ever increasingly finding it extremely hard to emulate; all that is left is to then sit back and hoot at all the nonsense written!!

  2. Give up on Apple selling more iPads. iPads have seen their best sale’s days years ago. I’m not saying it’s worthless for Apple to sell them, but very few consumers are going to be buying them. There doesn’t seem to be a compelling reason for any consumer to own them. Too many consumers are perfectly happy buying a $50 Fire Tablet with Alexa built-in.

    There’s no point in Apple shareholders praying for Apple to suddenly start selling more iPads. Apple really messed up when all the other major tech companies started their cloud businesses and Apple did nothing. All those other companies are getting solid quarterly revenue streams while Apple goes through “lame duck” quarters. Apple has to find some steady revenue stream to get it through the lame duck quarters where Wall Street can manipulate the hell out of Apple’s share price and leave Apple shareholders biting their fingernails. Depending upon one huge quarter every year is rather stupid. When is Apple going to start streaming all-you-can-eat video content to Apple hardware users? Netflix and Amazon can do it, so why not Apple? Leverage all those tens of millions of iTunes accounts, for chrissakes.

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