Apple is bracing for a sharp rise in the cost of building its upcoming iPhone 18 Pro models, with bill-of-materials (BOM) expenses for the 256 GB version projected to climb about 38% year-over-year, according to the latest smartphone industry research from TrendForce.
The primary driver is soaring memory prices due to RAMageddon. Memory’s share of total BOM cost for recent 256 GB iPhone Pro models has already jumped from roughly 10% a year ago to about 34% in the third quarter of 2026 and is expected to exceed 40% in the first half of 2027. This marks a major shift: the application processor and display, long the biggest cost components, are being overtaken by memory.
TrendForce estimates the BOM cost of the 256 GB iPhone 18 Pro, due in the third quarter of 2026, will be approximately 38% higher than its 2025 predecessor. If memory prices keep rising, the increase could grow even larger in 2027.
Faced with these higher costs, Apple is expected to absorb part of the increase by accepting lower gross margins rather than fully passing the burden to consumers. The company may follow a strategy similar to recent MacBook launches, softening retail price hikes to protect shipment volumes and market share. Apple could also raise prices on older iPhone models at the same time as the new launch to help offset the memory-driven cost pressure.
The research notes that if even Apple, with its industry-leading profitability, feels this squeeze, Android smartphone makers will face even tighter margins. Many will need to pass on a larger share of the cost increases, leading to steeper retail price rises than those anticipated for the iPhone. Entry-level and mid-range devices, where margins are already thin, will be hit hardest. With memory prices having risen five- to sevenfold since early 2025, some brands may have little choice but to implement substantial price increases or discontinue lines that have fallen into negative gross margins.
As a result, TrendForce expects global smartphone production to remain under downward pressure from the second half of 2026 through 2027 as elevated memory costs continue to weigh on demand.
MacDailyNews Take: RAMageddon won’t last forever — new capacity should ease pressures eventually — but it’s exposing fundamental differences in business models. In a world of rising component costs, customer loyalty isn’t just nice-to-have marketing fluff. It’s a competitive superpower.
Apple isn’t totally immune, but its customers are, by far, the least likely to blink.
See also: Apple customers won’t blink at RAMageddon price increases – but Dell, Lenovo, and Samsung’s will -June 25, 2026
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