Analysts are treating Apple’s first foldable as the product that will decide the year. Bloomberg Opinion’s Dave Lee writes that the question Wall Street is asking is how many consumers are waiting for the iPhone Duo, and that the answer is “hugely important to Apple’s stock this year and beyond.”
Lee’s column lands as the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max approach three weeks on sale. He notes that analysts have described consumer interest in the new Pro range as somewhat flat versus last year’s Pro models, and frames the Duo (priced at $1,999, with preorders set for October 16th and stores on October 23rd) as the make-or-break device. The caption on the piece says as much: this could be the product the year turns on.
That reading fits a familiar pattern. Apple moves its base iPhone 18 to a spring launch, so the September lineup is Pros plus a foldable that will not ship until late October. Counterpoint Research has put Duo shipments at about 6 million units for 2026, a figure more typical of the niche foldable market than of a core iPhone. If Pro demand really is soft, the argument goes, Apple needs the Duo’s waiting list to refill the narrative before the holiday quarter closes.
Lee is right that the Duo matters to the story investors are telling. He is less convincing that the year itself depends on it.
MacDailyNews Take: Lee just wanted so desperately to work “hinge” into an iPhone Duo headline.
The year does not hinge on a supply-capped halo phone. Analysts already have Duo units for 2026 at roughly 6 million, and the constraint being cited is production, not a lack of buyers. Apple will sell every Duo it can build. Calling a 6-million-unit foldable the make-or-break product is laughable when the Pro models, the mix shift, and Services are what actually matter. Flat iPhone Pro demand versus last year’s launch-week fever is not a crisis with the first foldable ten days from preorder. It is more likely a tell that some Pro upgraders are holding for Apple’s first foldable instead.
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I don’t even write the headlines! 😉
Could anyone explain how Apple might be able to justify its current P/E which many think is too high compared to Apple’s historical P/E. Other companies seem to be able to maintain their share prices and get Wall Street to accept a higher P/E. Would only a new business model allow this to happen for Apple?
It’s very simple. Stock price is not based on history. Stock price is determined from forward looking estimates. Everyone assumes some amount of future growth. AAPL clearly has a fanbase of investors who believe that future Apple sales will continue to build. No new business model required, however Apple is indeed expanding from durable computers (Macs) into subscription crap, media distribution, and disposable gadgets. That must be what the people want now.