With Apple keeping mum, analysts are all over the map with Apple Watch sales estimates

Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune, “‘We are not announcing the [Apple Watch sales] numbers,’ Tim Cook said, not for the first time, at a Wall Street Journal conference Monday night. ‘This is competitive information. I don’t want to help the competition. We shipped a lot [of Apple Watches] the first quarter, then last quarter we shipped even more. I can predict this quarter we will ship even more.'”

“That’s all Apple’s CEO — or anyone else at the company — is going to say about Apple Watch sales,” P.E.D. reports. “But Cook’s words may have sent a signal to the market, which gave the stock a $2.04 (1.83%) nudge the next day.”

“By Tuesday the average Q4 unit sales estimate among the analysts in Fortune’s panel — a mix of Wall Street professionals and seasoned amateurs — was 3.95 million, 20,000 Watches lower that Q3,” P.E.D. reports. “I wouldn’t be surprised, however, given Cook’s remarks, if some of those spreadsheets weren’t recalculated before next week’s earnings report.”

Apple Watch
On the back of Apple Watch’s case, a ceramic cover with sapphire lenses protects a specially designed sensor that uses infrared and visible-light LEDs and photodiodes to detect your heart rate. Apple Watch uses this sensor, along with an accelerometer and the GPS and Wi‑Fi in your iPhone, to measure myriad types of physical movement.

The complete list of analysts’ estimates, which range widely from 2.5 million to 6 million in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: 2.5 million is too low.

Why Apple Watch sales are primed to explode – September 19, 2015
Apple Watch users are abandoning traditional watches – September 15, 2015
Over 1 million Apple Watches already sold in China – September 3, 2015
Apple Watch already dominates smart-wearables market, says IDC – August 28, 2015
IDC estimates Apple sold 3.6 million Apple Watch units in Q2 – August 27, 2015
Best Buy CEO: Apple Watch demand is ‘so strong’ that we’re expanding sales to all 1,050 stores – August 25, 2015
Swiss watch exports decline most since 2009 – August 20, 2015
I own two $6,000 Swiss watches, but I wear my Apple Watch most of the time – August 14, 2015
Apple Watch will make up 40% of premium wristwatch sales by 2020 – report – August 14, 2015
Apple Watch takes 88% of total smartwatch revenue – August 14, 2015
Apple Watch dominates smartwatches with 75% market share – July 28, 2015
Juniper Research: Apple is world’s #1 smartwatch maker – July 23, 2015
Canalys: Apple ships 4.2 million Apple Watches in Q2 to become world’s top wearables vendor – July 21, 2015
Apple Watch satisfaction is unprecedented at 97%; beats original iPhone and iPad – July 20, 2015
Swiss watch exports hit worst slump in five years as Apple Watch debuts – June 19, 2015
Apple Watch is Apple’s most successful product debut ever – June 1, 2015
Apple Watch, the world’s first real smart watch, will be a massive hit – September 9, 2014


    1. I know the three first-day purchasers in my circle of acquaintances. Two additional have appeared in that circle in the last month or so. If anyone is comparing, one Gear in circle owned before Watch was released; no new ones added since.

    2. I’ve been seeing them a lot lately in NYC. They (thankfully) blend in pretty well (unlike the Samsung tablet on the wrist, which I’ve never seen anywhere other than their stupid f’ing ads), particularly the black sport, so you have to look for them.
      Doesn’t mean anything about sales, but I’m pretty sure they’ll start popping up more and more.

  1. Is there any point, whatsoever, for analysts to be simply guessing how many AppleWatches has been sold. Considering how widely varied their guesses are then any chimpanzee could count his droppings times a million and come up with a closer number. It’s just so stupid. Why don’t they bother to guess the number of Amazon Kindles being sold?

  2. well, today FitBit demonstrated why you don’t want a cheap schwag-watch that can be hacked, infected and then infect your computer. this should put the fear into swatch and Tag Heuer – who don’t know cyber-security from their elbow.

    FitBit just killed the low end wearable market with lax security.

  3. This situation exposes the analysts for the frauds that they are.

    If Apple had provided some sort of figure, such as X million, the analysts would have tweaked it up a bit or down a bit and pontificated about what their analysis reveals,

    When there is no base figure to start with, their analysis totally falls apart and they are seen to be coming up with random numbers.

    I hope that Tim Cook continues to keep the sales figures confidential and ridicules the analysts by saying that not one of them is even in the right ball park when it comes to the real sales numbers.

    Analysts are no friends of Apple. They circulate downright lies and peddle rumours that turn out to be quite untrue. When they ‘calculate’ sales numbers, they are always wildly inaccurate. They need to be constantly shown up as the charlatans that they are so that their influence can be diminished.

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